![NCAA Basketball: Loyola-Maryland at Missouri](https://www.saintlouissports.today/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/usa_today_22014428.0.jpg)
As we wait on word on Grill’s medical waiver, let’s look at what the super-super senior can provide.
Waiting is sometimes the hardest part.
For a while now we have felt like we’re waiting on certain news. Despite the length of time it’s taking, our latest info on Josh Gray is that everything is on course. Obviously at this point there’s just the confirmation that needs to happen. I would think we’re close. I don’t know if it’s today, tomorrow, or Monday… but soon.
Until then, I wanted to talk about Caleb Grill. The man who might be forgotten in all the turnover on the roster this spring.
Grill arrived last spring looking like one of the more important pieces to a team looking to sustain the built on success of Dennis Gates’ first year. I’m not going to say that things were going perfectly smooth, but I don’t think anyone thought Mizzou would go defeated in SEC play after they took down Wichita State at home in early December. Even with projected contributor John Tonje struggling to meet expectations following a foot injury, Mizzou was hovering in the 70s and 80s in KenPom.com and seemed to be solidifying a bit following four straight wins.
But the wrench was thrown already.
![NCAA Basketball: Wichita State at Missouri](https://www.saintlouissports.today/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/usa_today_22029033.jpg)
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
During the Wichita State game Grill injured his wrist. He was expected to return, but at some point it became evident that Grill wasn’t going to return. And he did not.
Instead Mizzou applied for a medical waiver for Grill to punt on the 2023-24 season.
Maybe Grill’s presence would have helped Mizzou avoid the embarrassment of going defeated in league play. I’d venture to say probably! Mostly because after Grill left the lineup the Tigers sank from 82nd in KenPom.com to their final resting spot at 145.
Let’s recall DataMizzou’s preview of Grill before the season:
Moving from the Big 12 to the SEC removes projection out of the equation. We know exactly what Caleb Grill can be in a high-major conference. The only remaining questions are how his role changes, if at all, and can his performance be improved.
I think his game is going to remain largely unchanged. He will likely get more opportunities in transition as well as open-rim attempts on cutting plays. His bread and butter will still be what he provides behind the arc. A move to a much more up-tempo — and open — offensive system should push his production to an even higher level.
I expect to see Grill play starter minutes, likely in the 55-60% minutes played range. I also expect to see his usage rise simply by virtue of his new program encouraging him to unleash shots at any given time. An 18% usage rate, while still considered that of a role player, would be a pretty heavy increase from his career marks. A reasonable expectation should these things manifest is an 8-10 points per night scorer. And one who does it with some flair.
It’s easy to overlook Grill. After all, this offseason Mizzou has added a former 5-star recruit and Duke transfer in Mark Mitchell. Plus All Big 10 point guard Tony Perkins, and the all time scorer at Northern Kentucky in Marques Warrick.
If Grill were added to the roster now instead of last spring, he might be the third most talked about transfer. His 110.3 offensive rating last year (in limited duty) was the highest of his career, despite shooting the lowest percentage from behind the arc since his freshman season. His offensive and defensive rebound rate was the highest of his career. His highest assist rate, lowest turnover rate… things were trending very well for Grill before the injury.
Missouri doesn’t need Grill to be what they needed last year. They need that from Perkins, Mitchell, and maybe Tamar Bates. Grill can take a step back, to a more familiar role of being a spacer, and a defender, and continuing to rebound.
Missouri has a lot of bodies available on the wing. Depending on how you want to define that position, Grill can be added to a body which includes Bates, Warrick, Aidan Shaw, Trent Pierce, Annor Boteng, Jacob Crews, Marcus Allen, and Mark Mitchell. All of whom are talented, but none who can bring what Grill brings. Toughness, experience, and a guy who has been with Gates more than a year now. He understands the assignment.