Vanderbilt Commodores Preview - Saint Louis Sports Today

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 07 Alcorn State at Vanderbilt — Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Please don’t get Pavia’d.

Well…it’s Vanderbilt week again. One of the few holdover SEC East foes still on Mizzou’s schedule, we’re all very familiar that the Tigers usually win this game but rarely is it easy and, yes, even Vandy wins sometimes.

2012 Vanderbilt is the only version that came into Faurot Field and won, though. And we all know 2012 was an injury-riddled disaster.

The 2023 Missouri Tigers seemed to exorcise the demons of the prideful 2019 team that came in freshly ranked and left Nashville with an upset loss. But now the Commodores have a chaos agent at quarterback, one of the best giant-killer coaches on staff as an advisor, and a bunch of transfer players that have elevated the play of the traditional SEC doormat program.

Here’s the preview I did on them in June. They’re still not great. I mean, they did lose to a terrible Georgia State team last week. But they are dangerous and shouldn’t be overlooked, especially with a trickster demon taking snaps at QB.

When Missouri Has the Ball

Missouri’s Offense vs. Vanderbilt’s Defense

Vanderbilt has just three starters from last year’s starting defensive lineup that are still starters on this year’s team: corner Martel Hight, and safeties C.J. Taylor and De’Rickey Wright. The defense has managed to improve substantially so far this year, with the only problem that last year’s defense was so bad (124th) that even their 28-spot improvement means they still stink (96th).

They still run a modified 3-4 with hybrid pass rushers in the outside linebacker slot but have (so far) improved exponentially in run defense, currently ranking 15th in the country. But they obviously still have some weaknesses as Georgia State put on display last week. So let’s see how Mizzou can attack this group.

Connect on Explosive Plays

This isn’t something that Mizzou has been consistently able to do and its, like, the biggest thing that Vanderbilt’s defense struggles with. Movable object, meet resistible force. Nate Noel has shown an explosiveness factor when he gets a crease, and the trifecta of Burden/Wease/Cooper have show a consistency to add YAC and thrive in the mid-range passing game. If both aspects can click against a defense that plays tight and dares you to beat them deep then Mizzou should be in position to put up some points. Let’s shoot for eight (8) explosive plays.

Don’t Turn The Ball Over

This seems like an obvious thing to do but Vanderbilt has been surprisingly thrifty in their turnover acquisitions. Given the types of passes that Vanderbilt has experienced, plus the number of fumbles, the Commodores should be at -1.0 turnovers for the year. Instead they are +3.0 in the turnover department, one of the 20-best turnover margins in the country. Brady Cook had his first clean game against Boston College last week and needs to make sure he does it again. It would be ideal if Mizzou simply didn’t turn the ball over but I’d even settle for +1 in the turnover department against a team that needs momentum plays like that to thrive.

Finish Your Dang Drives

Always and forever. Underdogs win by limiting opponent’s points per scoring opportunity and that can’t be the case here. Let’s go with 7 scoring opportunities and at least 5.0 points per opportunity.

When Vanderbilt Has the Ball

Missouri’s Defense vs. Vanderbilt’s Offense

Just like the defense, the offense returns three starters from last year’s lineup: running back Sedrick Alexander, tackle Gunnar Hansen, and guard Delfin Xavier Castillo. And, so far, the results of this total offensive reboot have proven to be worth it, as Vandy’s offense has risen from 80th at the conclusion of last year to 45th (currently) this year. The biggest difference between last year and this year is that they are finally efficient: currently 27th in success rate, 15th in overall efficiency, 21st in avoiding 3-and-outs, 47th rushing the ball, and an “I can’t believe this is true” 14th in passing success rate. Diego Pavia is a wizard with the ball in his hands and makes his best plays when he’s under the most intense pressure. Mizzou did a great job against its first talented and creative quarterback, now they have to do it again with a much savvier entity.

Contain!

It’s hard to really quantify one thing to focus on when it comes to Vanderbilt’s offense. Not because everything they do is incredible, mind you. It’s just that everything they do is good and they’re content to kill you by a thousand paper cuts. They are an anti-explosive offense that thrives on 4-yard runs from their backs, receivers catching curl and hitch routes 11-19 yards down field, and a quarterback who happily chips in 10-11 scrambles per game for the exact yardage needed for a 1st down. No flash, all frustration.

Truly, its similar to what Boston College liked to do heading into the game last week. And if this was a Blake Baker defense my goal would be to blitz the hell out of them to keep them off balance. But with the nuanced, adaptable, and cerebral Corey Batoon calling the shots, I’m asking him to merely contain whatever it is that Vanderbilt tries to do. This is a long way of saying that I’m looking for Mizzou to keep Vanderbilt’s overall success rate to below 45%.

Minimize the Scoring Damage

Once again, Mizzou is facing an offense that does a great job of maximizing their scoring opportunities. However, instead of playing a Boston College team that ranked 13th in points per opportunity, Mizzou is going up against a Vanderbilt team that ranks 16th in points per opportunity, 16th in red zone touchdown rate, and is the best in the nation at finishing with touchdowns in goal-to-go situations. The Commodores are the epitome of “finish your drives” so its paramount Mizzou doesn’t let them do that. I’d say five scoring opportunities at four points per opportunity should be sufficient.

Conclusion

This game has high potential to be a miserable affair, with a team that almost all of us agree is traditionally very bad pulling some funky BS with a quarterback that will be annoyingly frisky and a defense that does just enough to frustrate Brady Cook and friends. Every sign points to a 28-point win but that’s not really what Eli Drinkwitz teams do. Let’s hope the coverage busts are fixed and the silly offensive penalties are minimized or fully negated. It could be a very exasperating three hours.