Texas A&M Aggies Preview - Saint Louis Sports Today

Bowling Green v Texas A&M — Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images

The first road trip of the year is also the second conference game against the second ranked opponent of the year. Buckle up.

Hello. Would you like to see some stats that might make you feel bad about this week’s game against Texas A&M? Ok. Here you go:

Eli Drinkwitz has a 6-12 record in true road games, which is a 33.3% winning percentage. Drink’s road wins at Mizzou: at South Carolina (‘20), at Vanderbilt (‘21), at #25 South Carolina (‘22), at Vanderbilt (‘23), at #24 Kentucky (‘23), at Arkansas (‘23).
Missouri is 7-11 in games against ranked opponents since 2020. Those wins: #17 LSU (‘20), at #25 South Carolina (‘22), #15 Kansas State (‘23), at #24 Kentucky (‘23), #13 Tennessee (‘23), vs. #7 Ohio State (‘23).
To drill down further, Eli has coached Missouri to a 6-10 record in conference road games and is 2-6 in road games against ranked opponents.
Drinkwitz’s Tigers are 6-12 in games that kickoff at 11a CST, the time in which toe-meets-leather in the Missouri-A&M game.
Drink is 0-1 all-time against Texas A&M.

Now, here are some stats that might make you feel good about this week’s game against Texas A&M:

Eli Drinkwitz has an 18-17 record in conference games.
Drinkwitz is 18-4 when his team is ranked higher than the opponent in SP+.
Mizzou under Drinkwitz is 22-20 against P4 opponents.
Against teams ranked 11-25 in SP+, Drinkwitz teams have managed a 5-3 record.
And, famously, Eli Drinkwitz is 4-1 coming off of the Bye Week, with the lone loss coming last year against a #2 ranked Georgia on the road.

Here’s the preview I did of A&M in June. But let’s dive into the relevant stats of this week to get a better idea of what Mizzou is going up against when it makes its first trip to College Station since 2014.

When Missouri Has the Ball

Missouri’s Offense vs. Texas A&M’s Defense

This will be the best defense Missouri has faced by far this year, ranking a healthy 23rd in overall defensive SP+. As a comparison, Buffalo currently ranks 65th, BC 40th, and Vandy 83rd.

Head coach Mike Elko is a defensive coordinator by trade and has done a good job of taking key portal additions and allowing them to thrive; to date, Nic Scourton (Purdue), Will Lee (Kansas State), and Marcus Ratcliffe (San Diego State) are the top havoc creators on this defense that were playing elsewhere last year.

But there’s three things that Mizzou should focus on to make sure that they don’t get clipped on the road:

Run The Dang Ball

A&M’s defense is currently allowing a 38.8% success rate on the ground and a 36.0% success rate through the air so neither is a great option to lean on. But Missouri is a better offensive line when they are blocking for the run, more likely to get explosive plays on the ground, and helps draw attention away from Luther/Theo/et al when they keep plugging away with Noel and Carroll. Mizzou’s lofty 79% rushing success rate has gotten consecutive hair cuts after facing two opponents with a pulse but still stands at 49.6% on the year; let’s shoot for at least a 45% success rate running the ball.

Capitalize on Passing Downs

The Aggies rank a stout 29th in standard downs defense, allowing a 41% success rate on 1st-and-10, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter. However, they rank 103rd in passing downs success rate allowed thanks to some of the worst efficiency AND explosive numbers in the P4 when teams are obviously passing the ball. If Mizzou does wind up in way more passing downs than we feel comfortable, then we should expect at least a 37% passing downs success rate to counteract.

FINISH. YOUR. DRIVES.

We’ve explored why Mizzou has struggled to finish their drives this year, and I pinpoint it to a lackluster success rate in the 21-30 yard range which leads to Blake Craig making way more cameos than reasonably expected. But it needs to get fixed now.

Mizzou currently ranks 82nd in the nation as they average 4.18 points per scoring opportunity. On the flip side, Texas A&M’s defense ranks 93rd while allowing 4.33 points per scoring opportunity.

Movable force, meet resistible object. Let’s set it at 8 scoring opportunities with at least 4.4 points per opportunity to get us to 35(ish) points.

When Texas A&M Has the Ball

Missouri’s Defense vs. Texas A&M’s Offense

Conner Weigman continues to be listed as the starter but he hasn’t played since getting injured in A&M’s FCS tune-up, with Marcel Reed taking snaps in his stead. Elko says that Weigman will be a game time decision but, regardless of quarterback, this offense succeeds in one way so far: running the dang ball.

Le’Veon Moss has high success rates, yards after contact, and making sure he doesn’t get hit in the backfield. Reed has nearly 25% of his runs go for at least 10 yards and is good at avoiding contact. This Mr. Inside/Mr. Outside duo has been enough to pace the Aggie offense to just enough points to win, but not enough to pull away or start logging 35+ point final scores. So here’s what Mizzou needs to do:

Make ‘em throw

A&M Rushing offense: 50.5% success rate, 57.9% opportunity rate, 91.7% power success rate, 8 touchdowns, no fumbles. Scary!

A&M Passing offense: 37.0% success rate, 53.7% completion percentage, 14 yards per drop back, 8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions. Less scary!

So far, every offense leaves their matchup with Mizzou with all major metrics being 10% lower than what they were coming in (the JC Penny’s corollary, if you will). Let’s shoot for that again: at least a 40.5% success rate on the ground.

Turn them over

Coming into this game Texas A&M is playing a very lucky style of ball, where they’ve only thrown 2 interceptions (both in the 1st game) and have not lost a fumble so far. Given the way they play the should be +3.6 in turnovers so far (which is SUPER good on its own) but, instead, are +6.0 in turnovers. That’s incredibly lucky for them, especially considering they play a very Drinkwitz-ian style of ball of low possessions and winning by one-score.

Getting at least one turnover here would be massive, ideally two, but let’s set the goal of at least +1 in turnovers to ensure their luck in that aspect of the game doesn’t carry through.

Conclusion

The advanced stats like Mizzou by 5.2 points and that sounds about right. Eli’s boys have yet to show an ability to pull away from (and keep down) any opponent with a pulse, and the first road trip to a ranked foe with a raucous stadium – when Brady Cook has struggled with in-helmet communication already – is a recipe for a college team to fail.

Mizzou hasn’t failed yet but this has all the makings of a tight back and forth that’s decided by less than 7.