
It’s time for another rivalry game and another shot at a signature year one win for Dennis Gates.
Good ol’ Braggin’ Rights. Missouri gets a shot at another arch rival in St. Louis tonight when they take on Illinois. The 10-1 Tigers are in search of a signature non-conference win to give them a boost right before SEC play starts.
The Tigers are coming off a 68-66 win over UCF last Saturday. DeAndre Gholston banked in a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to win the game, and the Tigers shot 52% from behind the arc on their way to a key non-conference win.
Illinois has looked unbeatable at times this season…and then very beatable at times. The Illini have yet to be consistent (to the dismay of Brad Underwood), but they still have the talent and coaching to be a Final Four-caliber team if everything comes together.
Both of these programs would really like to get this win to boost their respective résumés and take some positive momentum into conference play. Expect a high-energy, intense game in STL on Thursday.
Game Info
When: Dec. 22
Where: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
Time: 8:00 CST
TV: SECN
KenPom Win Probability: 32%
The Starters
Missouri:
PG: Nick Honor (Grad)
SG: Tre Gomillion (Grad)
SF: D’Moi Hodge (Grad)
PF: Kobe Brown (SR)
C: Noah Carter (SR)
Illinois:
PG: Skyy Clark (FR)
SG: Terrence Shannon Jr. (SR)
SF: RJ Melendez (SOPH)
PF: Matthew Mayer (SR)
C: Coleman Hawkins (JR)
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Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Get To Know Illinois
Brad Underwood’s group have certainly faced their share of ups and downs. The Illini took down #8 UCLA before falling to #16 Virginia in Vegas earlier this season. They then handily took care of Syracuse before losing a close one to #22 Maryland. Then, they managed to take down #2 Texas and get blown out by Penn State (at home) in back-to-back games. Underwood expressed great displeasure with his team after the loss, stating that they deserved to be miserable during finals week (which was maybe a bit much). This is now their first true chance to shake off that sour taste.
The Illini have been a strong defensive team throughout this season. They rank 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency (90.4%) and effective field goal percentage (43.7%). They force turnovers on 23.2% of opposing team’s possessions and force teams to shoot a paltry 41.8% from 2-point land. Throw in a block percentage of 15.5%, and you’ve got a formidable defensive unit.
On offense, the Illini excel inside the arc, shooting it at a 57.2% clip. They also get an offensive rebound on 35.1% of their misses, good for 32nd in the nation. Still, in their three losses this season, offensive play has been the issue (61 against UVA, 66 against Maryland, 59 against Penn State).
In terms of personnel, everything starts and stops with Terrence Shannon, Jr. A transfer from Texas Tech, Shannon averages 17.8 points per game and 5.5 rebounds. He’s as tough and crafty as they come in the Big Ten, and he is currently appearing on most player of the year watchlists.
Coleman Hawkins acts as the “glue” guy. The 6’10 forward/center averages 9.5 points per game and leads the team in rebounds (6.1) and assists (4.2) per game, excelling in his third season.
Matthew Mayer transferred from Baylor this offseason and has been a quality addition with the experience he brings from a championship team. He led Illinois with 21 points against Alabama A&M on Saturday.
Mayer, Hawkins and Shannon Jr. are three of six players that average eight points or more for Illinois.
3 Keys To The Game
- Contain Terrence Shannon, Jr.
The former Red Raider has excelled in Champaign. The tough, crafty senior is a hard-guard for anybody in the country, so expect multiple Tiger defenders to get a crack at him. With his 6’6” frame, Honor may struggle for contain him, so more pressure will be on Hodge, Gholston and Gomillion.
His shot-making ability is what makes this offense go, and they count on him a lot to create on his own. If Mizzou can force others players to beat them, then that will go a long way in this game.
2. Getting Kobe Brown Going
The senior from Huntsville was expected to be an All-SEC caliber performer this season and a leader for this team. Not saying he can’t attain both of those things, but Brown has struggled in his past two outings. He had four points against Kansas and nine against UCF, and at times he just did not seem to be a major factor on the court.
While the Tigers were able to take down the Knights and have the depth for Brown to have off games, Mizzou will need more from him if they are to survive their conference slate. A bounce back performance against Illinois would be just what the doctor ordered.
3. Staying Hot From 3
It’s not necessarily something that can be planned or accounted for, but the 3-pointer has been a major equalizer for the Tigers this season. They struggled shooting from behind the arc against Kansas, and it showed. Then, they shot 52% against UCF and won. Hodge, Honor and Gholston have emerged as the key contributors from that range. They’ll be needed on Thursday.
Game Prediction
My Prediction: Illinois 82 | Missouri 75
KenPom Prediction: Illinois 82 | Missouri 77
The Tigers get a second crack at a signature win in a rivalry game. The Illini have had an up-and-down season thus far, but they are still plenty capable of being a top 15 team when they are playing at their best.
Containing Terrence Shannon, Jr. will be huge in this game, as will containing the Illini on the offensive glass. If there was ever a game for all five guys to crash the glass on defense, it’s this one.
In addition, Mizzou has to maintain their momentum from the UCF game. If Honor, Hodge and Gholston can stay hot from behind the arc, that would be a major plus. Carter and Brown are going to have to play big down low against the likes of Hawkins and Mayer as well.
In the end, this will be much closer than the Kansas game, but I just can’t see this Tiger team winning a game of this caliber yet. The UCF win was big, but it could have easily gone the other way. Mizzou’s upsets wins are more likely to come during SEC play when they have meshed more.
But, if Brown can bounce back and this team keeps up their hot-shooting from behind the arc, then they have a true shot. Regardless, there will be a lot on the line in the Enterprise Center on Thursday.