How large did the absence of Mitchell loom against Florida?

It’s easy to say that the Tigers win the game with Mark, but the numbers are why.

“If we had [insert player] we would have won,” is one of the oldest tropes in sports. It’s a very unmalleable take, especially when in a previous matchup with said player available the result differed. For people that like to sing that song, this article is for you.

The Missouri Tigers were outscored 36-6 by centers and forwards in their SEC quarterfinal loss to the Florida Gators, their largest disparity of the sort all season. In a 95-81 decision, disparities like that loom large and no disparity loomed larger than Mark Mitchell.

The Tigers star forward was absent against the Gators due to an injury he suffered in the first half against Mississippi State the round prior. Mitchell came into the tournament hot, having averaged 19.1 points-per-game in his previous nine and was on pace for 14 points against Mississippi State.

In their previous game against Florida in Gainesville Mark Mitchell had 15 points. 15 points would be exactly enough to win the Tigers this game, and that doesn’t include the defense that Mitchell brings to the table. Let’s analyze Mitchell’s performance against Florida, and areas where that was missing yesterday.

Mitchell’s scoring in the paint is well-renowned, but head coach Dennis Gates often gushes about his basketball IQ and how much it elevates the team.

This pass in the first half of the regular season matchup is a great showcase of that, because Mitchell analyzes the opening and quickly dishes it to Bates for a clutch bucket. With it being so late in the shot clock, this presence of mind is not seen from any of the bigs that got enhanced minutes yesterday. Mitchell had 10 total rebounds and assists in this game, Mizzou’s bigs (Josh Gray, Peyton Marshall, and Aidan Shaw) had six combined yesterday.

The ability to utilize mismatches is a quintessential aspect of Mizzou’s offense, and without Mitchell there is a higher burden for the shooters to get hot. Mizzou was only 4-for-16 from three-point land in yesterday’s game, which was a main aspect of the loss. In this play, you see Mitchell exposing a mismatch with Clayton and getting to the rim. Gray found himself on Clayton more than a few times yesterday, but averaging 3.4 points-per-game is a pretty good indicator that finishing at the rack is not a strong suit.

Something that was also missing was a safety valve for the driving guard, which Mitchell is a regular. Anthony Robinson, Tony Perkins, TO Barrett, Tamar Bates, and many more have found Mitchell on looks similar to this play and it lessens the pressure for them to take tough drives to the hoop. While Robinson, Perkins, and Bates all did well at the hoop against Florida, they still missed tough shots at the basket all night.

Florida runs a very rotational defense and with Mitchell’s ability to play on the perimeter, it leads to some players being put on an island. Plays like these are huge for momentum and that’s why having a good influence on the inside is one of the most coveted needs in college basketball.

This play right here sees Barrett drop the ball into the paint for Marshall and being as young as he is, Marshall just doesn’t have a chance against the active hands of the Gator defense. This was a routine thing all night, and if not a turnover Marshall just wouldn’t be able to get to a good look. While Mizzou didn’t have a turnover problem, they did have a Thomas Haugh problem.

Haugh only had seven points in these two teams’ previous matchup, hitting just one shot and committing four fouls. On the contrary, this time Haugh had 16 points and generated 12 trips to the free throw line. He also had just one assist compared to five in the rematch, illustrating just how free Gator bigs were to kick the ball out. That efficacy to kick the ball out played a huge role in the Gators jumping out to a 5-5 start from three-point land and a 27-11 lead. Gator bigs had five assists total in the last matchup.

While the Tigers were unable to catch the Gators in the end, they can take a positive outlook from this performance given the fact that Mitchell is expected to be available for the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers took a projected top seed to the final TV timeout without their leading scorer and with their top shooter out of form.