Another season starts with another FCS foe on another Thursday.
Welcome back to Rock M Nation’s annual opponent preview series of the upcoming season. Each week we will break down one opponent from the schedule in chronological order. Given that rosters are ever fluid – and this is done by a hobbyist rather than a pro – there could be some errors in history and current roster makeup. All mistakes are done on purpose and with ill intent because I don’t like you or your team.
This is the seventh year in which I preview Missouri’s opponents during the offseason and, in keeping with tradition, I will once again review the FCS-over-FBS victories of the past year, just as a friendly reminder to everyone that FBS teams are not immune to FCS usurpation:
2024’s six FCS victories over FBS teams was a jump from the previous year that featured a mere four. 2021 had a major breakout in FCS wins with 12, followed up with 2022’s eight and then the aforementioned four in ‘23. These numbers are far lower than previous iterations – 8 in ‘22, 12 in ‘21, 16 in ‘13 – but the simple fact is this: FCS teams can beat FBS teams.
The good news, though, is that those games usually feature an FCS Playoff-caliber team barely eking by one of the worst FBS teams on the planet.
The better news, then, is Mizzou’s record against FCS teams:
Division I-AA reorganized as the FCS in 2006 and, since then, Missouri has always played an FCS opponent (other than the COVID year) and never lost to a team hailing from that division.
Even when the FCS opponent has been one of the dreaded Playoff-caliber versions, Missouri’s victories have been 38-18 over South Dakota State, 50-0 over SEMO, and 35-10 over South Dakota.
The point is this: over three different coaches and various quality of teams, Mizzou has never really been challenged by an FCS foe at home. And, if they are challenged or even beaten, you can bet that Mizzou will be dog meat awful that year and the opponent will probably make it to the FCS semifinal round.
So let’s talk about Central Arkansas.
The news that you’ve probably heard about the Bears from Conway, Arkansas was back in the 2020 COVID season where coach Nathan Brown promised that he would play any game any where no matter the circumstances. They wound up playing 9 games for the year, racking up a 5-4 record and a decent travel itinerary as six of their contests were on the road.
But while UCA boasts three national championships from their NAIA days and multiple conference championships from both D-II and FCS levels, the records have been dwindling since head coach Steve Campbell left for South Alabama and current coach Nathan Brown took over.
Brown has managed three winning seasons over seven years, only one of which has happened post-pandemic. And while the Bears started hot last year, they closed out the end of the season on a four game losing streak, tumbling out of playoff contention thanks to a 2-5 record on one-score games.
Oh, and they lost last year’s quarterback, top running back, four of their top five receivers, and their best defensive player. But, thankfully, they hit the portal and OH MY GOD THEY PORTALLED IN 38 PLAYERS THAT’S NEARLY HALF A SCHOLARSHIP ROSTER WHAT THE HELL ARE THEY DOING
Coaching Staff
Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images
Nathan Brown – 8th Year – 43-35 (27-16)
Do you want to see the most boring resume of all time? You do? Good! BEHOLD:
Born in Russellville, Arkansas, which is 46 miles away from Conway (where UCA is located). Quarterback for four years at Central Arkansas. Graduate from Central Arkansas. Immediately go into coaching at Central Arkansas. Coach quarterbacks at Central Arkansas. Get promoted to offensive coordinator at Central Arkansas. Become head coach at Central Arkansas.
Look… get the work where you can, I’m not bashing it. And clearly he enjoys being in Conway. But… uh… what personal development or professional improvement has he received while never living more than a 45-minute drive from the place he was born, and only working with coaches who have been employed by Central Arkansas?
Far be it for me to pretend to know the guy or understand how he is as a person, but we can definitely see a trend of stagnant returns in the record column. Which makes last year particularly painful, after collapsing down the stretch from a great 6-2 start.
I’ve always believed that working for your alma mater is a bad deal, wherein the chance to sour on the positive memories you established as a student by going through workplace crap as an employee can ruin some of the most fun years of your life. And while FCS football is managed quite a bit different than FBS, I’m not sure how long a program as proud as Central Arkansas is going to put up with a proverbial “true son” who rarely gets on the north side of a .500 record.
Assistant Staff
At the conclusion of the 2024 season, UCA’s defensive coordinator retired and Coach Brown demoted long time offensive coordinator Ken Collums to tight ends and assigned coordinator duties to himself. So, you know, everything is fine in Conway. How are you?
And while new DC Chad Williams had this exact job at this exact school not that many years ago, four of the assistants are in their first year as a position coach at UCA and two of those will be working their first position coaching job in college football. There’s a lot of new-ness that smacks of desperation to make immediate improvements via mega-staff shake up. And sometimes that works! Sometimes!
Offense
Last year’s Central Arkansas offense was one that attempted to be balanced in its approach and ended up just being mediocre at everything. Passing? Decent completion rate and low interceptions, but also low Yards Per Attempt and quite a few sacks taken. Rushing? ShunDerrick Powell was both consistent and explosive and the go-to scoring option but no other back could come close to his production, and now he’s a Philadelphia Eagle.
Without getting a look under the advanced stats hood, Central Arkansas projects very similarly to Missouri’s offense last year:
- Average Yards Per Play: Missouri 6.9, Central Arkansas 6.7
- Average Passing Yards Per Game: Missouri 225, Central Arkansas 231
- Run/Pass Splits: Missouri 57/43, Central Arkansas 56/44
UCA was one awesome running back, an ok (and injured) quarterback, and a mediocre receiving corps that couldn’t provide enough of a passing threat to keep eyes off their running game. And, as Mizzou fans should know, having a kick ass ground game with a non-threatening passing game doesn’t get you anywhere close to an effective offense.
The good news, though, is that there’s an opportunity to reset and craft a new offense with a new coordinator (who is the head coach) because BAD NEWS almost every skill position player is gone. They do return 3/5ths of an offensive line that was fairly leaky in pass protection but the Bear offense is going to a completely overhauled starting lineup – let alone two-deep – and HC/OC Brown is going to have his hands full identifying the things they do well given the extreme turnover they’re going through.
Defense
Central Arkansas’ defense was one that was stifling in their run fits. They averaged 3.7 yards per carry for the year (Missouri allowed 4.1) and only gave up 13 touchdowns on the ground. Opponents kept insisting on trying to run it and the Bears insisted on making them look stupid, knocking their opponents backwards for 342 yards in TFLs and keeping offenses under 40% on 3rd-down conversions.
What’s that, you say? Offenses can pass too? Ah. Well that’s bummer because WOW the Bear secondary was terrible. Nearly 3,000 yards of passing given up, 26 touchdowns allowed, and only 13 sacks registered is some of the worst pass defense you can see on the field. No disruption plus only 8 interceptions meant that opponents could run two straight plays for no gain and then uncork a pass for the full amount of yardage and start over again. Bear opponents threw the ball 26 fewer times than they ran it and yet gained 1,200+ more yards through the air. And that’s before you realize that UCA’s best edge rusher and safety are gone.
Whether it was growing pains or ineffectiveness is unclear to a guy who can only glean info from YouTube clips and beat reporter stories. But the late-season collapse in one score games was certainly affected by a pass defense that couldn’t play damage control and it’ll be something that new DC Chad Williams will have to fix ASAP.
So what does it all mean?
It’s an FCS team. You should win, and win easily, and get your freshmen in as soon as possible to burn one of the four games they get during their redshirt season. Missouri will be breaking in a ton of new pieces on offense but should still outclass the Bears up and down the roster, especially on the defensive side of the ball. If you don’t see any of the non-starting freshmen in the second half, something has gone terribly wrong. The Tigers need to take this time to get some experience, iron out any issues they still have, and create some early momentum before they play their most hated rival and then their SEC portion of the schedule.