Was last year the beginning of the end or just a blip in the matrix?
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The Alabama if Nick Saban is dead and gone. But is Alabama as a powerhouse done for?
It feels like many people want that so we had a lot of voice throughout the ‘24 season being overtly critical of the Crimson Tide performance on the field. And, to be fair, the ‘24 Tide were a far shadow of former Bama dynasty teams of yore but…it wasn’t that bad.
The greatest Missouri team of all-time (according to SP+) was the 2008 squad that finished +24.0 and ranked 7th in SP+. Last year’s Alabama finished +25.0 and ranked 4th in SP+.
In a “down year”.
We should all have that level of misfortune.
Kalen DeBoer is certainly not Nick Saban but also…it’s been one year, yeah? Are we going to prognosticate the next four years based on the first tumultuous, transitional phase of a new coaching regime?
Who am I kidding, this is college football, of course we’re going to do that. But I don’t think it was nearly as bad as it seemed.
Here, look at what Alabama did last year:
They had two outright clunkers, no doubt about it: a close 24-17 loss to Tennessee in which they had a 10% postgame win expectancy, and then the surprise blow out of the year, a 24-3 no-show against freshman SEC member Oklahoma.
Outside of that though, they played at an elite level, to the point where SP+ saw the Tide as an 11-win team. That’s pretty on-par with Saban, would you say?
The issue, then, is that they had two very unlucky losses to Vanderbilt and Michigan. And even the Tennessee loss – in which they played like total crap – was a one score finish!
As I see it, the difference between DeBoer and Saban is that the Tide had two terrible games – something Saban rarely had happen – and that they found themselves in five one-score games, three of which they lost. That sort of thing was not consistent feature under Saban and, to me, that’s where a lot of the consternation comes from.
But they still recruit at an elite level. And they still have one of the largest war chests in the nation, with the ability to outspend almost any other program out there.
Doubt them at your own risk. They might not be god-tier like they were under Saban, but they’re still among the elite.
Coaching Staff
Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images
Kalen DeBoer – 2nd Year – 9-4 (5-3)
Here’s what I said about DeBoer last year:
The guy knows how to coach ball but has never recruited a Top 25 class. Clearly he knows how to work with talented kids – and even if Alabama was coached by a raccoon in a Tide trucker hat they would still recruit at a Top 20 level – but this will be DeBoer’s first gig where he is under intense observation, scrutiny, and pressure from a local and national level. How he responds to that – and manages internal relationships/expectations – will determine his long-term success is in Tuscaloosa.
And then, right on cue, the Tide faithful spent the season critiquing the clothes he wore, how he talked about the team, how he talked about opponents, and basically every aspect of his function as Alabama’s head coach.
I feel bad for the guy but, also, that’s what the money is for: generational-altering compensation in order to make the mental taxation on your health worth it.
He’s not going anywhere yet, and I really don’t think that the sane people in charge are too flustered by what he did last year. It would behoove him to rip off a 10-win season relatively soon – and continuing to beat Auburn is always a wise choice – but I think we won’t be seeing DeBoer anywhere but Tuscaloosa…at least through 2026.
Assistant Staff
After one year on the job there was minimal staff changes, but one noticeable change.
Nick Sheridan was demoted from Offensive Coordinator to co-offensive coordinator in order for Coach DeBoer to bring back his old OC from Washington, Ryan Grubb. Grubb spent barely 12 months as the Seattle Seahawks play caller before coming back to the warm embrace of his old boss at Washington. Kane Wommack remains as DC, but the co-coordinator – Colin Hitschler – was not retained and took a job with James Madison. Former North Carolina cornerbacks coach, Jason Jones, came on staff as an assistant defensive backs coach.
Roster Movement
Alabama follows up a year where they saw an unprecedented 38 transfers out and are now going through another 22 departures via portal. Most of these guys were backups or special teamers but, again, a backup or special teamer at Alabama is usually a Top 100 player. Elijah Pritchett to Nebraska is a noticeable loss, however, as he was the Tide’s starting right tackle with over 600 snaps of experience last year.
And the 22 portal departures are met with…10 additions via portal? Huh? Isaha Horton, Kam Dewberry, and Nikahi Hill-Green are big names but otherwise Alabama focused on guys from lower levels with experience to plug holes.
And then you get to the high school recruiting and realize that this might be the reason why portalling in wasn’t emphasized as much. Alabama’s high school haul ranked 3rd in the SEC and 3rd in the nation and runs 21 commits deep.
I have wondered how much the blue bloods would use/benefit from the portal and, with only a few years in, I’m not sure those elite teams need the portal. Why? Because they can still recruit high school so damn well! Yes, you might want a few guys to plug some immediate holes but if you’re able to consistently bring in Top 5 classes and don’t need much effort to do so, then you can save yourself time and money on the portal scouting department and rely on your insanely deep rosters to just move the next man up. It’s overly simplistic and still to early but it’s a trend that I want to watch develop over time.
Offense
Alabama’s offense was good last year, don’t get yourself twisted thinking that it wasn’t. It ranked 6th in SP+ overall thanks to a Top 25 success rate, 16th-ranked explosiveness, 6th in the nation in points per scoring opportunity, and the 11th-best third down conversion unit on the planet. But it was merely good at running the ball, had a bit of a penalty problem, and was surprisingly leaky in pass protection. That tends to not be what you expect from an Alabama offense, especially run by an offensive-minded coach, but I’m sure another year of seasoning will have this unit humming once again.
Quarterback
Photo by Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images
Ty Simpson has the most returning quarterbacking experience on this roster but it sounds like true freshman Keelon Russell is also vying for the starting spot. Neither is a known quantity but the rumbling around spring ball was that Russell is a higher upside candidate whereas Simpson would be a more proven quantity with lower chances for impact. Given the amount of other-worldly talent around this position I’d probably lean on the experienced, safe choice, but it’s Alabama: there’s not terrible decision you can make here.
Running Back
Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Alabama didn’t run a ton and weren’t the best when they did but their starting running back returns along with the addition of a new friend from Louisiana. Jam Miller and Dre’lyn Washington make an interesting pair of running backs, as neither have shown to be a steady, yard-munching type of back while, instead, both being big play artists. We’ll see how the rotations work out but if DeBoer likes big plays from his ground game then he now has two options to attempt the style.
Receivers
Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images
Alabama still has Ryan Williams. Pretty sure that’s all you really need to know here.
Offensive Line
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
As previously mentioned the Tide are auditioning for a new right tackle but everybody else returns. Alabama was portal-heavy on their o-line last year, with half the players seeing time starting at a previous school before the ‘24 season. Now they’ve all had one year on campus and should be ready to break through. Which is good, since they were 74th in sacks per dropback and a shockingly bad 102nd in pressure rate.
Defense
Alabama’s defense ranked 8th in SP+ and only gave up more than 30 points twice on the year.
They excelled at almost everything: run defense (29th), pass defense (12th), standard downs defense (10th), passing downs defense (22nd), points allowed per scoring opportunity (3rd)…Kane Wommack is an elite defensive coordinator and it showed.
The one issue of concern? Havoc! And, specifically, sacks. The Tide ranked 70 in sack rate and 74th in pressures per drop back while their overall havoc rank sunk to 43rd in the nation, with the Alabama defensive line finishing shockingly at 110th nationally in d-line havoc generated.
How much of that was scheme versus execution is unknown to me but it’s not something we’ve been used to seeing. It was still an elite defense and probably will be again, but it’ll take some time getting used to HOW they are elite with Saban no longer patrolling the sideline.
So what does it all mean?
Alabama skunked Missouri last year thanks to a Brady Cook injury and…well…being Alabama and playing in Alabama. I’m sure Eli Drinkwitz would love to finally put an elephant trophy on his wall but I just don’t see it happening this year.
Are the Tide vulnerable? Sure! Most blue-bloods in the portal era are more vulnerable than they ever have been before but “vulnerable” does not equal “beatable”.
Maybe you convince yourself that a trip to Georgia and a revenge game against Vanderbilt (lmao) cause just enough distraction that when they hit the road to Columbia they forget how to football and slip to a loss. But Missouri will be coming off games against kansas and South Carolina and, in this hypothetical argument, would be emotionally exhausted as well.
Don’t get shut out, put up a good show and, if you want, go ahead and win the game! But while Alabama might not be Alabama…they’re still Alabama. They’re tough and you probably won’t win.
Something to prove!