ST. LOUIS – As the St. Louis Cardinals approach the final month of the 2025 season, with playoff hopes practically slim to none, the final stretch may turn the spotlight on pitchers battling for spots in next year’s rotation.
The Cardinals began the season with a traditional five-man rotation of Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, and Matthew Liberatore. It’s been largely unchanged over the course of the season, with the exception of Michael McGreevy and Steven Matz drawing a few spot starts early and McGreevy taking over for good in July when the Cardinals released Fedde.
The result to this point? A 67-69 team stuck around .500 for much of the season without much sustained success collectively from the rotation.
And oddly enough, perhaps by coincidence and reason to degrees, the following trends have emerged.
1) The Cardinals have been more likely to win games started by Gray, Liberatore or McGreevy.
The Cardinals have a record of 38-24 (.613 winning percentage) in games started by Gray Liberatore or McGreevy this season. The three have combined for an ERA of 4.28 and have oftentimes benefitted from run support.
2) The Cardinals have been more likely to lose games started by Mikolas, Pallante or Fedde.
The Cardinals have a record of 27-45 (.375 winning percentage) in games started by Mikolas, Pallante or Fedde this season. The three have combined for an ERA of 5.23 and run support in their starts has been more hit-or-miss.
With that in mind
How could this year’s cast factor into next year’s plans? Let’s break it down individually…
SONNY GRAY
If Sonny Gray remains with the Cardinals next season, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which he doesn’t have a rotation spot. Now 35 years old, Gray leads the pitching staff in wins (12), ERA (4.19), strikeouts (168) and innings (152.1). His production and experience fit the profile of the Cardinals’ unquestionable top ace. Gray has one year remaining on a multi-year deal he signed after this year. He expressed a desire to stay in St. Louis when the Cardinals slashed payroll after his first season, but with Chaim Bloom set to take over the team’s lead front office role at the season’s end, the Cardinals could explore offseason trades involving veterans this winter. That said, if he’s healthy and stays in St. Louis, Gray is pretty much a rotation lock to start next season.
MATTHEW LIBERATORE
Matthew Liberatore took some major leaps forward this season as a full-time starter after bouncing between starting and bullpen work in his first three seasons. Liberatore has proven effective early in games this season, but more recently, has run into trouble near the second and third turns through a batting order. Liberatore has improved in limiting walks (2.34 BB/9 IP) and home runs (1.09/9 IP) and gives the Cardinals rotation a different dynamic as its only lefty. Liberatore has four more seasons of team control and is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason. He will need to show continued improvement next year, but seems on the right track to keep a rotation spot.
MICHAEL MCGREEVY
Michael McGreevy is taking advantage of his recent opportunity to stick in the Cardinals’ big-league rotation. Pitch efficiency has been a big factor with McGreevy extending at least six innings in all but one of his seven starts since becoming a regular rotation piece. McGreevy is a pitch-to-contact arm that makes sense for a Cardinals roster that prides itself on defense. In recent starts, the Cardinals have fallen behind early when McGreevy pitches, but he has generally made in-game adjustments to limit damage and cover innings. At 25 years old, the youngest member of the Cardinals’ current rotation, McGreevy looks well-positioned for a rotation spot next year, provided he continues to work on his early-game pitching performances.
ANDRE PALLANTE
This is where things start to get tricky. Andre Pallante enjoyed a breakout 2024 season (3.78 ERA over 20 starts) after switching from bullpen to the rotation out of need. He started off the 2025 season slightly underwhelming (4.23 ERA through May), but at least somewhat reliable in logging innings. Down the stretch, however, things have taken a turn. Pallante has made it past the sixth inning just once in eight starts since All-Star break, and he struggled mightily in August, posting a 9.82 ERA with 11 walks over 22 innings. Manager Oli Marmol insists on keeping Pallante in the rotation for now, but with the Cardinals not winning many of his recent starts, that could be harder to justify. Pallante will need to show major improvements in September to truly be on the radar for a rotation spot next year.
MILES MIKOLAS
Miles Mikolas is the longest-tenured Cardinals pitcher (eight seasons) and has even worked his way toward a few All-Star appearances and no-hitter bids over the years. This season, however, is likely to be his last. Mikolas is a pending free agent at the season’s end and has been hit hard in 2025. At 36 years old, he’s on pace for back-to-back seasons with an ERA above 5.00 and career worsts in home runs allowed (24 at the moment) and WHIP (1.35). Mikolas, unlike Erick Fedde, maintained his rotation spot after a gauntlet of rough starts in June and July, likely due to his longevity and lack of other big-league ready options right now. With the Cardinals set for a front office switch and expected to trim payroll where possible, Mikolas – who carries one of the team’s largest contracts right now – will likely see his time in St. Louis come to an end next month. A short-term deal is possible if the Cardinals don’t feel ready to hand a rotation spot to a prospect or outside option, but currently not expected.
ERICK FEDDE
Erick Fedde is no longer with the Cardinals after he was designated for assignment in July amid prolonged mid-summer struggles (5.22 ERA over 20 starts). He was traded to the Atlanta Braves, released and has since signed a short-term deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. He is a pending free agent at the season’s end, but doesn’t really fit the bill of what the Cardinals desire in the rotation going forward, and a reunion should not be expected.
Cardinals’ 2026 rotation outlook
Here’s a current projection of the St. Louis Cardinals rotation for next year…
1) Sonny Gray (If not traded)
2) Matthew Liberatore
3) Michael McGreevy
4) TBD (Maybe Andre Pallante, but not guaranteed)
5) TBD (Prospect, young arm or outside option)
Who else has a case?
If the Cardinals are looking from within, the most intriguing name would be Quinn Mathews, a quick-rising, left-handed offspeed specialist and 2024 minor-league pitching prospect of the year. Mathews has been decent at Triple-A Memphis (3.74 ERA, 88 strikeouts over 18 starts) but will need to refine his pitch command and limit walks before an MLB promotion. That could come next year, but when exactly, and if immediately as a starter, remains unknown.
Cardinals prospects Tink Hence, Sem Robberse, and Tekoah Roby are also possible candidates for MLB starts next season, but all have been hobbled by lengthy injuries this season.
If the Cardinals look to convert a current bullpen piece to starter, perhaps Kyle Leahy or Gordon Graceffo have a chance for starts next year. Both have pitched in bulk out of the bullpen, but preparing for a starter’s workload is a big adjustment that won’t be easy.
Some potential intriguing free agents after the 2025 season include Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen and Walker Buehler, but it’s unclear if the Cardinals would be aggressive on a big-name outside option during Chaim Bloom’s first offseason in charge when, historically, they have not. And there’s always the possibility of a trade, but not many clear possibilities on that front just yet.
All in all, the Cardinals’ 2026 rotation could look similar to what’s in place now, but there is a at least a chance for something different in one or multiple rotation spots. This season’s final month could set the stage for such decisions, but the groundwork for next year’s rotation will ultimately take shape this winter.