I don’t care what happens in spring training, Scott should start the year in the minors
A defense-first player at a premium position who has not played above AA is crushing spring training to the tune of a .333/.393/.556 line. He came into spring training with no real, evident expectations that he would make the roster. He has made a compelling case that he is more MLB-ready than previously thought, as most people thought his bat was at least a year away from MLB-ready. He is currently being blocked at the position- wait. Hold on. Let me check my notes.
Oh right this was Masyn Winn last year. The Masyn Winn who was sent down to AAA and struggled for half a season before going on a hot streak and ending his AAA season with a 108 wRC+. And then got called up to the majors for the last 45 days, struggling to the tune of a 29 wRC+. And he had a little more kinks defensively than we maybe thought too.
Did you know Winn had a better spring training than Jordan Walker in 2023? Clearly so too. Like it’s not that close. Walker hit for a .277 average with a .299 OBP and a .492 slugging percentage. It should be clear what my point is: spring training does not matter. There was no reason to believe Winn was MLB-ready last year even though spring training suggested he was. Your plans should not change because of spring training.
Victor Scott II is not having as good of a spring training as Winn did. In fact, the way Winn was good in spring training certainly suggested MLB-readiness more than the way Scott has been good, at least offensively. Scott has had zero power in spring training, and while he has walked, you’re not going to walk 10% of the time if you have no power. It’s just not happening.
I was listening to 101.1 argue about Scott and I think I know the issue. I think people underestimate just how bad offensively Scott can be at the major league level to start his career. I don’t think people truly grasp it. Like you can say “oh anything we get offensively is a plus, he’s just there for his defense,” but I think you’re expecting an 85 or 90 wRC+.
For example, the point was made and even accepted that Scott was a better offensive player than Dylan Carlson against right-handed pitching. This is extraordinarily unlikely to be true. I could make the argument that Carlson is a better hitter against RHP than his career numbers suggest. He walks more, strikes out less and has more power against RHP than when he faces LHP. It’s just a 100 point difference in BABIP and no, he does not have a true talent 100 point difference when facing different handedness pitchers. I can accept a difference, but it’s a significantly narrower margin than that.
Or I could just use Carlson’s career 86 wRC+ and compare it to Scott’s 78 wRC+ projection and bob’s your uncle. The fact that this is a belief held by what I think is a significant portion of fans tells me that people think Scott is going to be a better hitter than he will be. They know Scott will be below average, at least I think, but there’s a difference between almost average and what Scott’s actual projection is, and people can say whatever they want, nobody actually enjoys watching a 78 wRC+ hitter.
Trust me, we have a very clear recent example that fans will turn on a bad hitting, elite defender in CF. Scott might get away with it because he doesn’t strike out a lot and he steals a ton of bases, but Harrison Bader, back in 2019, was an 82 wRC+ hitter and nobody wanted to actually play him against anyone but LHP. He was worth 1.7 fWAR in 406 PAs, so he was above average.
Also, it must be said, you absolutely cannot assume he will be as good defensively as Bader in centerfield. Bader’s do not come around all that often. Go back to his 2019 season. To be a pretty poor hitter and be above average overall obviously tells how he good he was rated defensively. For his career – and he was better in his prime, Bader is +17 OAA per 1,200 innings. Since he debuted, Bader’s +58 OAA is tied for the most in baseball among CFers with Kevin Kiermaier. To make the point in a different way, just seven individual seasons since 2018 featured a player with +17 OAA or greater (Bader never did it himself since his career high PA is just 427.)
Once again, Bader’s 2019 is helpful to illustrate why I don’t think you can start Scott in the majors. Scott has a worse projected wRC+ than Bader had that year, which means essentially Scott needs to be as good as Bader defensively to be an average player. And that is an outrageous expectation to have for anybody, I don’t care how much you believe in his defense. I believe in his defense and would be thrilled if he was a +10 OAA CFer and he would need to be better than that to justify starting in the majors right now.
Really, this argument is all about Dylan Carlson. I cannot believe I am arguing this point, because I have argued against Carlson in CF in the past, but Carlson needs some rope as a starter in centerfield until Tommy Edman comes back. The slow start to spring is going to be one of those accepted “Carlson hasn’t been good in spring” and I have a feeling he’ll end up with a better hitting line than Scott and people will still say Scott had a better spring than Carlson. Carlson has a 102 wRC+ in spring training right now.
(Note: Since I wrote this, Carlson 2-4 with a HR and Scott went 0-4 with a BB yesterday. He now has a 124 wRC+ while Scott has a 119 wRC+)
But, you might be wondering, that still leaves another spot in the outfield? Well, Brendan Donovan is still a thing. I am aware he comes with his own issues, injury-wise, but so long as he can throw a baseball, there shouldn’t be much reason for concern. Donovan has played in LF this spring, so there is an expectation that he can play OF this season.
I also personally wouldn’t mind Alec Burleson until Lars Nootbaar comes back. I know some are against it. But well, I hate to throw really the only legitimate argument that Scott should make the team back at you – but Burleson is having an incredible spring training. He has a 149 wRC+ and went 2-3 with a 2B yesterday. Hey, I know spring training doesn’t matter, but then that really removes Scott’s only argument.
I know it’s the backup QB syndrome at play. You’ve seen Burleson, you haven’t seen Scott (except spring training). Well, Burleson had a 137 wRC+ in AAA last year, which was better than Scott’s 119 wRC+ in AA. If Burleson’s AAA wRC+ translated to an 89 wRC+, would that not give you pause what Scott’s 119 from a level below would translate to? Using the best projection system we have, it translates to a 78 wRC+.
I want to let his bat develop first, and while his bat is not what his game will be known for, a stronger bat leads to a better player and a higher upside one too. It could ultimately be better for his development to figure out AAA pitching first than to struggle against MLB pitching. And since the Cardinals have two alternative options that are comparable or better to Scott, I think you have to prioritize development.
I know Scott is exciting. He’s new. And maybe you guys are right. Maybe Scott’s defense really can prop up his bat. I’ll actually be happy to be wrong. But I think the likeliest outcome is a less extreme version of Jordan Walker last season, just instead of ugly defense, ugly offense. I am surprised it took me this long to get to Jordan Walker. Another player the Cards wanted to make the Opening Day roster that looked like a very bad idea at the time and that looks like an even worse idea in hindsight. You don’t have to have every prospect skip AAA if they weren’t even dominant in AA.
Also I think Lars Nootbaar will not be out very long, so it’d be kind of waste to put him in the majors before he’s ready.
I am curious what the Cardinals will do. I don’t actually know. I personally think we need to see him hit AAA pitching first. Improve on his walk rate. Make sure he has some power. But I also want to see Carlson to get a month or so of everyday playing time to see if he can play like the player he was his rookie year. He’s certainly a good enough fourth outfielder that he shouldn’t be leapfrogged by yet another rookie not quite ready for the big leagues. Resist the temptation. Put Scott in the minors. Let him develop on a normal path.