The Cardinals are at a crossroads. They’re playing well, having won seven of their last 10. They’re 44-38 and just 4.5 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central. They’re also close in the Wild Card race.
At the same time, this season was meant to be a balance of runway and winning, and it needs to stay that way. Winning should always be prioritized, but the Cardinals still need to see which of their young players are going to take them to the next level.
And so, that’s why I constantly advocate for them to sell a piece or two at the trade deadline, and it’s why I had this same opinion last year. I must stress that I’m not an advocate of blowing up the roster. John Mozeliak correctly pointed out the other day that this approach almost never works. Certain pieces though can get you a lot in return.
But when I look at how I believe the Cardinals should approach the deadline in a few weeks, I go back to one particular trade from 2023 that set the stage for how teams began to maximize their returns for rental pitchers.
I’m talking of course about the deal between the Rangers and the Royals that sent Aroldis Chapman to Texas for the stretch run. Texas needed a reliever, and Chapman more than did the job for them, playing a key role in them winning their first World Series title that October.
At the time of the trade, Chapman had a 2.45 ERA with the Royals, which led to him bringing back a nice return for Kansas City.
Going back to Kansas City in that deal was none other than Cole Ragans. The left-hander isn’t having a great season this year, but once he got to Kansas City, he pitched to a 2.64 ERA in 2023 and was their ace last year when they won 86 games and secured a Wild Card berth.
Last year, Ragans went 11-9 in 32 starts with a 3.14 ERA. He was an All-Star and even garnered Cy Young consideration. Now, we don’t know how the trade will play out in the next few years, but long-term, it seems to have benefitted the Royals more than the Rangers.
And so, that should be the framework for how the Cardinals go about this trade deadline. Again, I’m not saying that they should blow up the roster. You don’t do that if you’re over .500 and within striking distance. But there is a way the Cardinals can do this and stay in contention.
Granted, you’re going to be hard-pressed to find a prospect quite as good as Ragans was, so I want to acknowledge that it won’t be easy. But it all depends on who you trade in my view.
The best way to get the best possible return in my opinion is to trade Phil Maton. I’ve already mentioned how I think he’ll bring back more in return than Ryan Helsley at this point, but he’s having the kind of year Helsley was having last year.
He’s 1-2, but he owns a 1.76 ERA and is only making $2 million this year. I think for sure he’ll be an All-Star, but if you trade him to the right contender, then you can bring back a solid prospect or two.
As good as Maton has been, I don’t think this is a move that would take the Cardinals out of contention. Their bullpen has been a strength once again, and there are plenty of options in relief for St. Louis. Steven Matz has pitched well, JoJo Romero and Riley O’Brien have been better, and you still have Kyle Leahy. Not to mention, Matt Svanson has been good in his stints with the club, and you can also have a spot for Gordon Graceffo. Trading from the bullpen depth could also help the Cardinals address any other needs they have.