Might be a tougher year than normal and certainly tougher than last season
I was reading Fangraphs top prospect list for the Cardinals, and if I may rant for a bit, I think it is absurd that they are releasing a team prospect list in late June and for three other teams, July (and maybe August for the last team!). I don’t actually care that I don’t get to read their thoughts before the season. That honestly doesn’t matter to me. But I feel like releasing it in the middle of the season completely negates the point of releasing a team prospect list.
Imagine if you are crafting a list back in February, and you have the power to see how everyone performs in the first three months of the season. It feels wrong to place you in the same category as a Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus who actually release it on time. I am not exaggerating that you may as well just wait until the season is over, because it’s closer to your 2026 prospect list than your 2025 one. I am getting closer to what you think of these players at the conclusion of the 2025 season than telling me what you think for the 2025 season. And I know they don’t have the money or the staff, make a smaller list then. Rant over.
I brought that up because in some of the profiles, more than I expected in fact, it was pointed out that some players were going to have to be added to the 40 man. Some of the players I already knew and some of the players, I kind of assumed – and still assume – they could safely not add them. But it even being brought up naturally made me wonder exactly how many players will be under serious consideration, which of course made me want to write this post.
Leaving the 40 man
But first, let’s see how many spots the Cardinals are likely to have. In order to know how many players the Cardinals can add, we need to know how many players are leaving the 40 man roster. The way to leave a 40 man roster is to either depart for free agency or to get designated for assignment. The Cardinals have one player on the 60-day IL, so they have 41 players on the 40-man roster. Their impending free agents are:
Erick Fedde, Garrett Hampson, Phil Maton, Steven Matz, Ryan Helsley, Miles Mikolas
I can guarantee Fedde, Hampson, and Mikolas are all gone. Helsley may get the qualified offer, but probably not. And if he doesn’t get the QO, he’s gone. And maybe there’s some interest in re-signing Maton given his fantastic year. Usually though, if a player actually reaches free agency, they don’t sign by the 40 man deadline anyway, so unless Maton signs an extension mid-season, he’ll probably want to see what the other 29 teams are willing to pay.
And my best DFA or nontender guesses
Luken Baker, Matt Koperniak, Roddery Munoz, Sem Robberse, Yohel Pozo, Zack Thompson/John King
Quickly, my justifications. Baker is behind Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera, and like five other DH candidates, is batting .190 in AAA right now, his power has not translated to the MLB level at all (.131 career ISO) and is out of options. Koperniak has a 57 wRC+ in AAA and is left-handed. Munoz runs out of options and hasn’t really been good and considering they treated Ryan Fernandez not being able to be sent down as some huge burden, I can’t imagine they keep Munoz unless he has a killer 2nd half.
I honestly can’t believe Pozo has lasted this long, but he was always a short-term solution and the real problem is the Cardinals have to add two other catchers to the 40 man, and they are not going to have 5 catchers on their 40 man. It is possible he’s traded, but for this article’s purposes, same result. Lastly, consider the Thompson/King spot more of a reliever spot. Those are just the two strongest candidates. Thompson has one option, for now, and if he’s injured all year, that option never gets burned. I feel they’d rather have Thompson than King so if Thompson emerges at some point, he’ll probably take King’s role.
Lastly, I think they’ll try to sneak Robberse through waivers, because he’s out with Tommy John surgery all of next year, and he’s not necessarily such a good prospect that someone is guaranteed to grab him. 11 players is a lot! They won’t add 11 players though. The roster is at least ideally suited for them to grab: a free agent starting pitcher, a free agent reliever, and a free agent right-handed outfielder. Some of these could be trades, but we’re just going to try to stick to 8 names. Jose Fermin is also out of options next year, but I happened to be writing this post when he got off to a hot start. That can change by the end of the year though.
The locks
Leonardo Bernal, Joshua Baez, Nathan Church, Jimmy Crooks, Cooper Hjerpe
It is not a coincidence that these are all top 20ish prospects… and Nathan Church. No shade to Church, he’s 35th on Fangraph’s list and I don’t think they are considered particularly low on him. I actually did not put Church in the locks at first and then I remembered they added Koperniak and it’d be weird to add Koperniak, but not Church a year later. There are harder choices to be made than last season though and I don’t think Koperniak cracks the 40 if he was with this group. And since I expect Hjerpe to land in the bullpen anyway, a team being forced to have Hjerpe on their active roster for at least 90 days when he comes back from injury is a very different situation than Robberse, who has fringier stuff.
The Likely
Brycen Mautz, Hancel Rincon
I feel like a left-handed 23-year-old with a 28 K% in AA would need to be protected. He’s a middling prospect, but does have a profile where it’s all too easy to see it working in the bullpen, so he’d be an easy enough stash for a Rule 5 team. And unless I’m mistaken, Rincon is eligible for minor league free agency. I don’t think his 39 K% in AA is for real, but something has changed and I don’t think they want to give him away for nothing.
Possibly
Pete Hansen, Max Rajcic, Jeremy Rivas
For much the same reason as Rincon, I believe Rivas has to be added. Unless they come to some agreement for a minor league extension. I really have no idea. He’s an obvious leave off the 40 man otherwise, which makes this more difficult. You want him in your system, not really on your 40 man. I do not understand at all why Fangraphs ranks Hansen 10th. He has a below average K rate and a mediocre walk rate. He’s also going to turn 25 later this month and he’s doing this at AA. I feel like you can leave him off. I don’t know what I’m not seeing that they are. Rajcic actually has a better K rate than I thought, but I look at him and then I look at Bedell last season, and I don’t see him being protected. He is a year younger, but still.
Not added
Ian Bedell, Jose Davila, Austin Love, Darlin Saladin, Jaun Salas
Of this group, I think Love is probably at the biggest risk, but that’s only really if a team falls in love with him. Fangraphs has been really high on him (relatively speaking) because they love his stuff and sometimes stuff is enough to get you selected in the Rule 5. He has also effectively missed the last two years, so this is him shaking off the rust and again, I can see him being better next year, But in relief, I’m not sure his stuff is really good enough to warrant a Rule 5 selection as a 26-year-old in AA. Davila has mediocre numbers in High A and the other two have bad numbers, and I don’t feel like there’s a risk there.
And because there’s at least one person who will ask about a player who doesn’t actually need to be added, here are some players who are not eligible for the Rule 5 draft this upcoming offseason:
Chase Davis, Luis Gastelum, Ixan Henderson, Quinn Mathews, JJ Wetherholt
Those are the big prospects in AA or higher who I’m sure someone was going to ask about. That’s right. The Cardinals do not need to protect Mathews. Which is good and bad. It’s good because, as of now, Mathews has more walks than strikeouts and done literally nothing to warrant a promotion, so if that remains true at the end of the year, they essentially get an extra 40 man spot they didn’t know they’d have. It’s bad because, well, the Cardinals are going to be mighty tempted to just not promote him so they get an extra spot on the 40 man. Essentially, you want Mathews to force his way on the roster and he’s a long way from doing that. So we may not see him in the majors this year.
As for the rest, I list them because I expect there to be a roughly 0 percent chance we see them in the majors this season. There’s an argument to be made that both Henderson and Wetherholt have warranted promotions to AAA and the fact that they haven’t can tell us pretty definitively they have no intention of promoting them to the big leagues by September, even in a sell situation at the deadline. Wetherholt, by the way, is unique among this group because he doesn’t need to be added until December 2027. He will be added well before then.