9 Game Winning Streak Supplants Doom (for now)
Last week I detailed how similar the Cardinals are to some of the top teams in MLB when going by fWAR and other factors not related to their win/loss totals. Since then the Cardinals have sprung out of their early season form as if from a cacoon that was April and the early season. If a bird can emerge from that sort of wrapping, that is miraculous.
It has been a tale of different months so far: April meant 17 losses, sub-.500 baseball. The problem wasn’t the positional players, who posted a 108 wRC+ while playing elite defense. The problem wasn’t so much the pitching in general. It was the bullpen posting a 4.40 ERA and just a lot of bad timing and also injuries to Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera, which were felt by the whole team. Herrera had been on an absolute tear to start the year, and Winn was the mainstay at shortstop providing some of the best defense in the majors.
Looking back, it felt like we had one of the worst bullpens ever. But it was more of a middling to just below average bullpen, because several players made it still kind of good: Leahy, Maton, Helsley. The bullpen was still within the top 20 teams. And yet somehow the team only won 13 games spread over late March to the end of April.
Now May has been a whole other story: excellent bullpen at 2.72 ERA. Fifth place in bullpen fWAR (with only the Reds ahead of the Cardinals in the National League this month for bullpens). We are behind only the Twins, Royals, Reds, and Phillies in overall pitching fWAR for May (tied with the Giants). Positional fWAR in May has been top 10 for the Cardinals, and they retain the top defense so far this month as well.
So the Cardinals have shown a slightly improved offense in May, and much, much better pitching all while retaining that top tier defense. The Cardinals are feeling much more like themselves, overperforming their roster by a little bit largely because of inducing groundballs and playing amazing defense, but also in having a lot of depth. At least by what I am looking at statistically and in watching each game, it really feels like April’s losses were more of the fluke than May’s winning ways.
As it stands now on Fangraphs projected standings, the Cardinals are supposed to finish 4 games behind the Cubs, and just over .500. This is where I would have pegged them to start the season, about the same as last year, barely a winning team. But now I want more. This team can up the attack on offense a bit, and give that pitching meets run preventing defense a really good chance at winning more often.
After a 9 game winning streak, the Cardinals find themselves at 4 games over .500 and have gained some confidence and maybe a little swagger. They are ahead of the Phillies and Reds in run differential. They’re not as bad of a road team when it comes to hitting. The pitching is a little better on the road now too. Maybe that narrative will end soon, but the Cardinals are still 5 games under .500 away from home. Hopefully that will change now.
One more thing I would like to talk about this week is how Masyn Winn sprays the ball around effectively when he collects hits. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masyn-winn-691026?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
While he does like to pull the ball, he is also going the opposite way rather effectively and fairly often. His current .340 OBP is exciting and hopefully hints at a more seasoned MLB hitter. He appears to be improving some at the plate over last season and while he is definitely a defense first player, his hitting has actually been well above average!
Winn’s combination of youthful athleticism, very valuable defense, above average footspeed, and .170 ISO in 2025 is rather exciting and entertaining. Masyn has now played in well over 200 MLB games! Winn has a pretty major split in that he is hitting lefties much much worse than righties: .442 OPS vs lefties, .892 OPS vs righties. Winn hits a lot better on the road, going against the away split 2025 Cardinals narrative. He hits the best with 1 out in the inning, OPSing .988! He has 11 of his 26 hits in the 3rd and 9th inning. He absolutely loves hitting in the 9th inning so far. So we may see some walkoffs by Winn this season.
Well that was fun, one of my other favorite up and coming players to watch has been Victor Scott II. He had a cup of bitter coffee last season but has turned everything around for this season so far. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/victor-scott-ii-687363?stats=splits-r-hitting-mlb&season=2025
- 115 wRC+
- 1.2 fWAR
- amazing defense and 11 stolen bases = FAST
- likes to hit righties .827 OPS
- his best statistical splits show that he likes batting 9th (second leadoff man!)
- he has been “clutch” so far in that his OPS is higher with more than one runner on base and he hits well with players in scoring position, and he hits well in late and close situations
- so far when he leads off an inning, he doesn’t hit well (I guess because no one is on base)
- VSII doesn’t care if he’s hitting at home or away
- similar to Winn, Victor is hitting best with 1 out
Ok these splits will be worth monitoring for other players, and valuable when coming back to Winn and Scott II. So far, the season is still young and these split stats are relatively meaningless. It gives you an idea of the hitting personalities we have seen so far in the results on the field and might give a sketch of what’s to come from hitters. It’s also possible things will go in a completely different direction and we will be able to pull together different conclusions later in the year.
Album Hall of Fame
Medeski, Martin, and Wood – ‘The Dropper’
https://music.youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_k5ctXNwG0LF13sb2_RzUfPXRkAdsa1F8k
Oh yes! This album is one of the more exciting and entertaining albums in my whole collection. It has a rather indescribably dark intensity to it, while ranging from utter free jazz chaos with textures and strange noises roaming amongst the notes and fantastic drumming. It throws Hammond B-3s in your face and funks the heck out. It can get lounge-y at times, even though some tracks feel like a sonic assault on your very being. Which gives the album magnificent depth and dynamic qualities.
It is full of both kinetic action and ethereal weirdness, floating textures and raw beauty. It’s moving like life itself is nothing less than inspirational on several levels. To be played as loud as you want, because you’ll only hear more of what is happening in the recording. It can get mystical, sparse, introspective. And then throw a wickedly moving bass line at you which you will bite hook line and sinker. But then the drums kick in and you’re really going somewhere.
You may not know you need this album in your life, but you do, for that awakening. It will get in every way. If you can only comprehend its twists and turns, its ebb and flow. The Dropper has made a big mark on my musical life. And I thank them for that. There are very few three album runs that can match Medeski Martin and Wood’s ‘Combustication’/’The Dropper’/’Uninvisible multi-genre run. Luckily I got to see them live a few times during this era and I am super thankful. Prior to that they were a more standard but wonderful jazz band. And after they got pretty jammy. Many may know them more as a jam band, but please be sure to check out all their pre-2004 material. Especially if you like jazz, funk, hiphop, and experimental music.