Yeah… you get another chance to vote for the 20th prospect
I’d feel weird running a final prospect post without another vote, so it’s appropriate that I don’t really trust the most recent vote’s results. If you’ve been following along, you know why. It’s also very close in voting anyway. I haven’t had any issues with head-to-head voting, and there were at least two undebatable leaders of the vote. So the 20th spot goes to the winner of this vote. I will not have a post on it, so just see for yourselves I suppose. Quick summary of the two players facing off:
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
Max Rajcic, RHP – 23
LYR: #12
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP/4.59 DRA
BP: “He has a very pretty looking but humpy curveball, though his changeup has actually taken a step forward to claim the title of his best offspeed offering (to go along with various flavors of slider).”
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
- Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
- Tekoah Roby, RHP
- Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
- Gordon Graceffo, RHP
- Sem Robberse, RHP
- Matt Koperniak, OF
- Yairo Padilla, SS
- Darlin Saladin, RHP
- Zack Showalter, RHP
- Raniel Rodriguez, C
- Travis Honeyman, OF
My Top 20
I am not a scout. I will not pretend to be. I mostly focus on what others say, what the player’s stats are, the level they’re at, and the age they are. And then I throw in a little dose of gut feeling into the mix. So, uh, I kind of went against the grain on some of these picks. I will explain as best as I can. Also I have a bit of advantage, with half of spring training being played.
- Tink Hence
- JJ Wetherholt
- Quinn Mathews
I don’t blame you if you look at me crazy for this. I really don’t. Tink Hence is unquestionably a better pitching prospect than Mathews for me. I am not saying that I don’t understand people who have Mathews higher – far from it – I’m saying it wasn’t even a debate for me. Hence arguably performed better than Mathews in AA – struck out more, walked less, induced more groundballs. And he was two years younger. And yes, I know innings and health concerns, I get it. That’s where potential comes in. Hence has more potential.
As far as why Hence is above Wetherholt, this is where Wetherholt “only” playing at Low A comes into play. The lack of power displayed and his hamstring aren’t things I’m actually concerned about yet, but are enough to push him off #1. Also again the fact that I am not a scout. If Wetherholt were #1, this would be entirely because I’m displacing my own opinion for the scouting report. And I don’t want to do that. Mathews is third because of Gordon Graceffo. Graceffo’s velocity gains not sustaining past one year is making me hedge my bets on Mathews. He also seems to have the lowest potential of the three clear top picks.
4. Thomas Saggese
5. Leonardo Bernal
6. Jimmy Crooks
I don’t feel I have to explain Saggese. We both agree on his placement. Bernal over Crooks? Now that needs some explaining. There are three reasons for this actually. The first, in all honesty, is a gut instinct. My gut is telling me Bernal is going to be better than Crooks. The second is that Bernal was equal to Crooks as a hitter in High A, but he did it one year younger.
The third is that when a hitter destroys Springfield, I don’t really trust it. Springfield (and the Texas League) seems susceptible to the minor league version of a career year. Dan Descalso had a 151 wRC+ in Springfield. Jarrett Hoffpauir had a 155 wRC+. Crooks had a .390 BABIP. I know BABIP is a talent in the minors (or can be), but that does not mean you have to take it at face value either.
7. Tekoah Roby
8. Michael McGreevy
9. Chase Davis
Important context: I put Roby above Hence last year. Also I’d be lying if I said spring training didn’t impact this. The reason he could have been lower is if he was permanently broken or his stuff didn’t come back, and spring training simply showed he still has it. It’s not about the stats. He showed he was healthy and showed why he was a top 100 prospect. I kind of want him higher (Cardinal Nation has him 4th), but found it hard to justify.
If you took an expected WAR over the course of their team control years, McGreevy should be higher, but I don’t know that anybody compiles prospect lists like that. Davis is actually probably a little responsible for why Wetherholt isn’t #1, he took forever to adjust to Low A.
10. Cooper Hjerpe
11. Sem Robberse
12. Chen Wei-Lin
Hjerpe being this low is in theory inconsistent with the placements of Roby and Hence. The thing is that I actually think Hence and Roby might start. I haven’t really ever thought Hjerpe would start and him throwing 40 and 52 innings in his first two pro seasons doesn’t really help his case. I have an unreasonable amount of faith in Robberse – he’s not higher than Hjerpe just because the potential is quite a big gap. The only real knock on Lin is that he wasn’t young at Low A, but a pitcher who is 6’7, who throws upper 90s and whose best pitch is a changeup – shit just typing that makes me want to put him higher.
13. Max Rajcic
14. Darlin Saladin
I can’t quite figure out why Rajcic fell so far. There’s a very easy argument to make that he actually pitched better in AA than he did in High A last year. It doesn’t look that way because the run environments are wildly different, but he has a nearly identical xFIP. Saladin is here because at 21, he essentially kept pitching the same upon promotion to High A which is crazy. The ERAs are different, but the advanced stats are very close to the same.
15. Travis Honeyman
16. Zack Showalter
I view these two as similar prospects actually. Guys who just can’t stay healthy. I just trust the hitter more to stay healthy than the pitcher.
17. Brian Holiday
18. Won-Bin Cho
Consider this a possible correction for leaving Mathews off of last year’s list. I don’t expect him to do the same thing that Mathews did – well of course because he’d be higher if I did. But he probably has the best chance of anyone left to stick at starting pitcher? (And he has better odds than a few in front of him, I’d venture). Cho is purely an age/level pick. I’m not crazy about anyone left for a top 20.
19. Ian Bedell
20. Sammy Hernandez
You guys probably thought I forgot someone. I did not. I’ll get to those players later. Bedell is a probable reliever, but since he got such a late start and has only made 9 starts, I’ll give him a little leeway on this one. Also he’s a Mizzou product so I’m biased. I don’t know if Sammy Hernandez is a top 20 prospect, but I find it hard to ignore that he’s a catcher who made it to High A at the age of 20. Who appears to have a good bat.
Why not him?
I think Gordon Graceffo is a pure reliever at this point. He could not maintain his velocity in his spring appearances. He’s made 44 starts in AAA. He’s 25. He is supposed to have a good chance to make the bullpen. I think he’ll stay there. McGreevy passed him over, Mathews is not far behind, at least Robberse and Rajcic are young. I’m just out on him as a starter.
I am unwilling to put DSL prospects on a top 20 list. They are so so far away. We have a few too many examples in recent years of highly touted DSL guys who just immediately fell on their face when they got to the US (Jonathan Mejia, Malcolm Nunez). Speaking of, Mejia isn’t on this list because he’s probably a 2B. Also not crazy about his K%/ISO/BABIP combo.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, I just do not have a lot of faith in Matt Koperniak. It is entirely age-related and that he’s probably a corner outfielder. I don’t see more than a bench player in his profile. The offensive standard for a corner outfielder is fairly high, and I have trouble seeing him be more than an average hitter. When I decided to add Helman to the voting, that was not me thinking Helman was a prospect, I legitimately thought they were similar. So that’s why both are off.
Honorable Mentions
Ryan Campos wasn’t ever going to make my list, but he is on Baseball Prospectus’ list at #19. So I thought he was worth shouting out. Here’s a blurb:
“Campos is on the smaller side for a catcher—and indeed dabbled in the outfield in college too. As you might expect, his swing is pretty compact and his carrying tool is his contact ability; in a small post-draft sample at Low-A he ran around a 90% in-zone contact rate. He makes pretty good swing decisions, but his power grades out on the lower side. Despite their differing physical frames, this is a lot like the report Crooks had coming out of college, so perhaps Campos can also pick up more damage ability as a pro.”
And they also wrote something about Ian Petrutz. Both Petrutz and Campos, if I’m being honest, didn’t have enough power for me to consider them. Here’s what BP said:
“The power is more limited at present, and although he did pop a 110 mph batted ball, he hits a lot of his hardest contact at low launch angles. Still, this is one of the more interesting college profiles that was taken way down the board, and he’s a potential 2025 breakout if he starts mashing the ball harder in the air.”
I considered Luis Gastelum, because of Blake Newberry, but true reliever who is a few levels away is a hard sell for a top 20. Alec Willis is going to have to throw more than 11 innings, but I want to believe. Ixan Henderson seems like a fun prospect, just wish he had a better K/BB ratio in High A so I could put him on the top 20.
And there you have it. The top 20.