Cardinals face the same exact pitchers as last series against the Pirates.
Cardinals, I confess I was not confident you would win either game yesterday. I’m not saying I expected two losses before the games started, I am saying in the midst of both games being played, I was less than optimistic they would turn into wins. The Cardinals entered the day 2-5 in one-run games and left it 4-5. I will take that.
Bouncing back from the road four-game sweep to the Mets by winning the series at home, the Cardinals hope to do the same to the Pirates. The Pirates have not been doing well lately, although they’ve only played good teams. They’ve lost 7 of their last 8 to the Padres, Cubs, and Dodgers. Neither their offense or pitching has been particularly good in that stretch. They’ve allowed an average of 6.5 runs and scored an average of 2.25 runs in that span. Rough stretch of games.
There are a few bright spots in the lineup. Oneil Cruz, current leadoff hitter, has went into walk overdrive. He has stole 14 bases with zero caught stealing. He has a 147 wRC+ and by xwOBA, it should be better. Andrew McCutchen is defying aging for at least a little bit with a 121 wRC+ on the season as the DH. And Joey Bart has a 124 wRC+ thanks largely to a .404 BABIP. Offensively, that’s about it.
Bryan Reynolds has started slowly with an 82 wRC+ on the year. Enmanuel Valdez has probably been as good as can be expected with a 95 wRC+ as the 1B of choice against right-handed pitchers. Against lefties, it’s Matt Gorski. He has homered this year in 13 PAs, but gotten on base just one other time aside from that. Jared Triolo with a 15 wRC+ has taken over SS duties with Isiah Kiner-Falefa hurt. Ke’Bryan Hayes still can’t hit, with a 72 wRC+, though his defense is still Gold Glove worthy. Adam Frazier is still bad, though not as bad as last year. Team-hopping Alexander Canario has a 21 wRC+, but a .391 xwoBA.
In the bullpen, the Pirates suffered a couple injuries since the last time we saw them. Tim Mayza and Justin Lawrence were both having good seasons, and are now on the 60-day IL. David Bednar is back, and recently picked up his third loss of the year on Saturday. They also added Tainer Rainey, previously with the Nationals, and he threw a scoreless inning of baseball yesterday in his 2025 debut. Colin Holderman, who was hurt last series, is healthy, although he has a 10.80 ERA this year.
The Pirates have three lefties, although only one has been effective. Ryan Borucki has gotten groundballs in 73.3% of balls in play, and he has a really strong K/BB leading to a 1.75 FIP and 2.52 xFIP, though just 3.46 ERA. Neither Joey Wentz or Caleb Ferguson have been particularly good as the other lefties.
Monday – 6:45 PM
Carmen Mlodzinski (6.58 ERA/3.52 FIP/3.67 xFIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (4.66 ERA/2.92 FIP/5.03 xFIP)
Well this is just my least favorite kind of matchup. I don’t know if Mlodzinski is any good to be honest, but I hate facing pitchers with bad ERAs and good advanced stats. For one, I expect their ERA to get closer to the advanced stats when facing the Cards, when facing anyone really. For two, it usually leads to comments like “How could you lose to a starter with a 6.58 ERA?” and well, it’s because they’ve been exceptionally unlucky this year and they weren’t against the Cards.
Mikolas is going to have to actually pitch better at some point or maybe just keep relying on never allowing homers. Wouldn’t mind if the Cardinals got a weird fluky, lucky season with Mikolas. I mean he’s been better than Erick Fedde, which is a monkey’s paw wish if I’ve ever seen one.
Tuesday – 6:45 PM
Paul Skenes (2.74 ERA/2.99 FIP/3.00 xFIP) vs. Matthew Liberatore (3.44 ERA/2.32 FIP/2.90 xFIP)
As with always facing Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes, I suspect every single series the Cardinals face the Pirates, they will somehow never miss facing Paul Skenes. And despite losing three of his four games against the Cards, Skenes has still pitched quite well against them. He gave up a career high 5 runs against the Cards last time out, but had a 1.24 FIP in that game. If you were wondering how good he was.
Liberatore got a bit screwed last game with his outing only last 3 innings due to rain and the bullpen completely collapsing after him. He wasn’t without fault, allowing 2 in 3 innings. But still. Let’s hope he can match Skenes pitch for pitch.
Wednesday – 12:15 PM
Mitch Keller (4.38 ERA/3.80 FIP/4.37 xFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (4.12 ERA/3.97 FIP/3.58 xFIP)
I keep thinking Gray is pitching worse than he is. Part of that is that he is pitching worse than last season. Last season featured a weirdly low LOB%, and an unusually high 30.3 K%. But he is pitching about how you’d expect.
The Cardinals faced Keller last series and he went 7.1 IP of scoreless ball. And just like last time, it was a day game in the final game of the series where offenses typically die. So I would expect much the same in this one.