Somehow outslugging the 3rd best offense in baseball and securing a series tie and perhaps, series win…
The Cardinals have hit 7 home runs vs the Cubs in the first two games of the 2025 season series. Whether this actually means anything more than the Cardinals (and Brewers) now being 2.5 games out from the Cubs, is anyone’s guess. But it has ensured at the very least a series tie vs Chicago, and perhaps a series win if St Louis can split the next two games.
There is of course the fabled option of sweeping the Cubs, which would put the Cardinals just a half game out of first place in the NL Central. The Brewers are playing the Pirates so they will remain in the thick of the standings at the top as well. However, if the Cubs win the next two, it will be a neutral series leaving the Cardinals where they began, just far enough out to feel like more of a wild card team.
Before going into all of the home runs we have seen as of late, I would like to congratulate both Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy for being able to handle the third best offense in MLB and allowing the Cardinals offense to make sure the team wins the game. Good defense (I Mean, stellar defense really) has also helped the Cardinals win these two games, but holding back the Cubs offense enough to win both games is no easy feat.
- Matthew Liberatore: 2.97 FIP, 7.4 to 1.25 K/BB, 3.69 xERA
- Michael McGreevy: 3.36 FIP, 3.73 xFIP
Even with tonight’s lackluster performance, McGreevy still has a really good statline this season. He deserves another shot. The Cubs offense is not easy to deal with. And he was able to fight the heat and disappointing results to at least pitch 4 2⁄3 innings, righting the ship at the end. The bullpen let the Cubs back into the game, but Masyn Winn had something to add…
Home Run Heroes
June 23, 2025 Deuces Wild
- Brendan Donovan 2 run home run (5th inning)
- Alec Burleson 2 run home run (5th inning)
- Lars Nootbaar 2 run home run (4th inning)
- Nolan Gorman 2 run home run (6th inning)
June 24, 2025 Slugfest
- Masyn Winn 2 run home run (3rd inning)
- Lars Nootbaar 2 run home run (2nd inning)
- Nolan Gorman solo shot (4th inning, ending 6 straight two run shots)
Offense looking good all of the sudden!
- Gorman .322 OBP, 6 HR
- Nootbaar 106 wRC+ (same as Gorman), 11 HR
- Winn .324 OBP, 7 HR
- Burleson .339 OBP, 9 HR
- Donovan .377 OBP, 5 HR
And there’s where we are at after 7 home runs, 6 of them 2 run shots. The Cardinals are tied with the Brewers, both teams just under 50% shot at the postseason. OOPSY projection system thinks the Cardinals have a better shot than the Brewers. Using season to season data, the Cardinals should be the 2nd place team.
Two more games of this big series are about to commence. Fedde vs Boyd, and Pallante vs Imanaga. The range of outcomes in the standings is so varied over the next two days. Half a game out, 2.5, or back to 4.5. I predict that we will probably end up splitting this series, but if the Cardinals keep hitting at least 3 home runs a game, I like our chances at a series win! After that we play two easier teams in the Guardians and the Pirates. And then the second half begins…
If you don’t get enough Cardinals Cubs rivalry during these 4 games, you will be pleased to hear that we go to the northside of Chicago 4th of July weekend. The team has July 3rd and 7th off, and then the All-Star break. I don’t know about you but I’m kind of glad the team is not sending many players, so that the whole team can be more rested for the second half of the season. The Cardinals play in 11 games during the first 17 days of July, a stark contrast to the densely packed June schedule.
The Nationals and Braves are in town after a road trip to Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Chicago. Back on the road, to the west the 18th to the 23rd vs Arizona and Colorado. The Padres and Marlins come to St Louis to close out July. August isn’t much tougher. I like our chances pretty well, actually. The second half seems a little easier. We still face the Cubs and Brewers often in 2025, so anything could happen.
Final Notes for June 25th, 2025
- condensed game for June 24th slugfest
- Nolan Arenado closes out the game with the help of Willson Contreras for a best of 2025 season reel play!
- Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 games!
- St Louis now qualifies as a wild card team 80 games in
- Since Friday the 13th the Cardinals have a 113 wRC+ and are a top 10 MLB offense
- Cardinals have hit 22 home runs in 15 days
- Cardinals have hit 13 home runs in the last 7 days!
- The team’s batting average has plummeted during this time but power numbers are way up!
They’re still getting on base pretty well but it’s more all or nothing hitting-wise. Year to date the Cardinals are a more middling home run total team, during last thirty days they’re slightly improved… but it only has been during recent weeks that the power has showed up.