Steven Matz’s time on the injured list has been extended after the left-hander hit a setback in his rehab work. As Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told The Athletic’s Katie Woo (links to X) and other reporters, Matz came out his Double-A rehab start last Sunday with more tightness in his back, and the starter has now been shut down for two weeks. Marmol gave a 4-6 week timeline as a projected best-case scenario for Matz to return to the active roster, as Matz’s throwing program will have to more or less be started from scratch after his shutdown period.
It’s a tough break for Matz, who had banked three rehab starts already and was seemingly on track to be activated from the injured list around the start of July. Instead, he’ll now be sidelined for another month at the very least, and more realistically probably won’t be back until some time in August.
Matz made six starts and posted a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 innings before going on the IL in early May with a lower back strain, so it has been a rough season all around for the 33-year-old. All told, not much has gone right for Matz since signing his four-year, $44MM free agent deal with St. Louis in November 2021, as various injuries have limited the southpaw to 180 2/3 innings since Opening Day 2022. He looked to be turning things around with a solid 3.86 ERA over 105 innings last year, but neither the production or the good health has been there for Matz this year.
Since it doesn’t seem like Matz will make it back prior to the July 30 trade deadline, it only exacerbates the Cardinals’ need for rotation help. The club’s top four of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Miles Mikolas has been more solid than outstanding, but the quartet has at least been reliably able to take the ball and eat innings. Finding a fifth starter has been an issue for the Cards, as none of Matz, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, or Zack Thompson have provided much help in what has become a bit of a revolving door of a rotation spot.
Like pretty much the entire National League, the Cardinals are in something of a holding pattern with more than a month to do before the trade deadline. St. Louis is an even 37-37 on the season, but the Cards are out of the last wild card spot on percentage points alone due to a lot of parity in the Senior Circuit — only four NL teams entered Saturday’s action with records above .500.
If this uncertainty continues over the next month, it will leave St. Louis and many other teams unclear about how aggressive they should be with their deadline shopping, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Cardinals explore selling if they hit a slump and fall out of the race. Given how the Cards are coming off a rare losing season, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak could possibly feel more pressure to “go for it” in order to get the team back to its customary dose of October baseball, though Mozeliak has traditionally made more mid-level deadline moves rather than true blockbusters during his tenure in the St. Louis front office.