My final Spring Training notebook contains my thoughts on a few pitchers, a hitting prospect that has stood out to me, and my take on the seemingly finalized roster.
Happy Sunday Viva El Birdos! This is the final Sunday without regular baseball for a long while and that gets me pumped. That also means this is my final Spring Training notebook of the year.
So in this final notebook I want to point out a few more tweaks that I’ve noticed from a couple pitchers while also giving my take on a hitting prospect that has stood out to me, the seemingly finalized roster, and the St. Louis Cardinals Rule 5 pick who seems to be an Opening Day roster lock.
Let’s get straight into it.
Zack Thompson’s Fastball
I’ve written about Zack Thompson at length all offseason and all spring but I want to bring him up one final time before the season starts.
Previously when I’ve written about Thompson, I have focused on his new changeup which Statcast actually labels as a forkball due to its extreme lack of spin. The pitch is clearly better than his old changeup and I suspect that Thompson, a lefty, will use this new grip to really get after righties.
I won’t say any more about that, though, because today I want to focus on Thompson’s fastball.
If you’ve read my stuff at VEB, you’ll know that I’m super intrigued by Zack Thompson’s new changeup/forkball.
That’s not his only improvement this spring though.
2023 Fastball IVB: 14.9 in
2024 Fastball IVB: 17.4 inI’m excited by what I’ve seen from ZT so far.
— Blake Newberry (@bt_newberry) March 21, 2024
I tweeted that prior to Thompson’s most recent spring training outing and his fastball wasn’t quite as lively last time out which brought his average induced vertical break down to 16.6 inches.
That tells us all we need to know about looking into spring numbers. They can change quickly and aren’t necessarily indicative of what we will see in the regular season.
Still, though, it’s notable that Thompson’s fastball is getting almost 2 extra inches of IVB when compared to last season. Is this legit? Who knows? What I do know is that Thompson was at Tread Athletics in the offseason to pick up his new changeup and would it really be that surprising if we learned that he spent some time working on his fastball while he was there?
I think not.
So keep an eye on Thompson this year. A better changeup and a better fastball could help him really take a step forward. He’s a player that I’m starting to feel pretty high on and I wouldn’t be shocked if he was a staple in the rotation come season’s end.
Andre Pallante’s Fastball
Like with Zack Thompson, I have also written extensively about Andre Pallante this offseason. Most of my efforts have been focused on his breaking balls, though, since he already has a fantastic fastball.
So why was he experimenting with his fastball in his last game?
Andre Pallante’s 4-seam fastball only reached 17+ IVB three times last season.
In todays game alone, he’s done it 4 times while still averaging 95.2 mph https://t.co/wSFLvEpok8
— Jacob (@JacobE_STL) March 21, 2024
My answer is simply because it’s spring training. Why not experiment with things? We already know that Pallante has a fastball that can get an absurd amount of ground balls. But what if Pallante was able to elevate his fastball for whiffs? That would just give him another tool in is arsenal to show to hitters when the time is right.
This is why I think Pallante toyed with his fastball in his last outing.
We know that a riding four-seamer (which is different from his typical cut/sink four-seamer) is something that Pallante worked on in the offseason.
Cut/ride fastball pitch design with Cardinals reliever Andre Pallante.#Baseball pic.twitter.com/crEMwjKC5r
— Tread Athletics (@TreadHQ) November 30, 2023
From the Twitter thread that explained why Pallante and Tread Athletics toyed with Pallante’s already excellent fastball, it seemed like the pair simply had an idea that was worth pursuing but ultimately not worth implementing.
In short, sometimes it cuts, and sometimes it sinks. My claim was that with a grip change, he could get a consistent cutter profile.
The original thread is attached below ⬇️ https://t.co/O5fS93VvCe
— Alex Kachler (@Alexkachler10) December 4, 2023
So the fact that Pallante broke out this fastball in-game in surprising. I do have some concern that him throwing that pitch will mess with his feel for his other pitches and his feel for his typical fastball, but that’s why Spring Training exists. This is the time to try things out.
Will we see Pallante break out this riding fastball in the regular season? I don’t know. But what I do know is that this is a pitch he has in his back pocket so there’s always a chance.
Matthew Liberatore’s New Pitch
With Matthew Liberatore officially making the Cardinals bullpen, now seems like a good time to point out that he has toyed with a new pitch this spring.
It’s hard to get the pitch metrics for it because Statcast has actually labeled this pitch as a slider most of the time but Liberatore has broken out a cutter and it’s a pitch that could be interesting for him.
The pitch has sat 90-91 mph on average with moderate cutting action (4.7 inches on average, though I suspect that figure is a bit high due to misclassified sliders) and looks like it could be a solid pitch for the left-hander at that velocity.
Since Liberatore already throws something of a gyro slider (which is about 4-5 mph slower than the cutter), I would be curious to see if he ends up throwing both the cutter and the slider this year since they have similar movement profiles with the main difference being the extra velocity of the cutter.
Liberatore did fare much worse against right-handed hitters last year so this could also be an effort for him to be more effective against right-handed hitters by adding a hard pitch that he can use to work inside.
I have no idea if this is something that we’ll see Liberatore beak out in the regular season but I’ll definitely be watching for it.
Ryan Fernandez’s Pitch Usage
It’s time we had a talk about Ryan Fernandez. The Cardinals selected Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft this offseason and, as a Rule 5 draft sicko, I was glad to see the Cardinals make the pick but I preferred Justin Slaten, who was drafted with the very next pick.
Now that doesn’t mean I don’t like Fernandez. I do. But Fernandez comes with some questions and the major one is his fastball shape.
I’ve heard that it was better in the past but it wasn’t great last year and that led to plenty of hard contact. This spring, we have seen much improvement either:
At least we’ve seen Fernandez sitting 95+ but that’s not an exciting fastball shape, especially after seeing how hard it got hit in Triple-A last year (96.2 mph avg EV).
So the fastball is probably not his strong suit. But what we saw Fernandez do really well last year was miss bats with his slider (69.2% whiff rate) and cutter (40.5% whiff rate).
You can probably see where I’m going with this:
This won’t happen but the more I think about Ryan Fernandez the more I want him to go full Robert Stephenson and throw his cutter like 70% of the time
— Blake Newberry (@bt_newberry) December 8, 2023
I tweeted this in December and I still feel the same way. So how have Fernandez’s pitch usages shaken out this spring? Well…he’s about 50/50 and that’s not good enough for me. I simply don’t have confidence in Fernandez’s fastball.
That’s why I want to see Fernandez pitch like Robert Stephenson or Keynan Middleton and throw his best pitch (cutter/slider) a ton to help hide his fastball. This isn’t a typical Cardinals strategy but I’m hoping we see it this year with Fernandez.
So if you were to ask me how I feel about Fernandez this year, my answer would be — it depends. And it depends almost entirely on his pitch usage. I’m fascinated to see how things play out with him and I know that I can’t wait to watch him pitch in meaningful games.
Cesar Prieto’s Strong Spring
I don’t really have a whole lot of numbers or metrics for this section. Cesar Prieto is just someone who has impressed me when I’ve watched him. That’s it. His bat-to-ball skills are exceptional, which isn’t a surprise since that has always been his calling card, and it’s been fun to watch him hit everything this spring.
Here’s a triple from the spring breakout game:
César Prieto triple!@Cardinals | @CardsPlayerDev pic.twitter.com/SGxnt6lmGX
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 15, 2024
And here he is hitting a tough lefty:
A little #PokePoke actíon by César Prieto drives in Iván Herrera #stlcards pic.twitter.com/XgCggZwjIE
— cardinalsgifs (@cardinalsgifs) March 19, 2024
Prieto is such an interesting player to me. And by interesting, I mean that I really don’t know what to think about him. I love watching him hit but I question the level of impact he can have at the major league level as a player who chases everything (i.e. doesn’t walk much) and doesn’t hit for much power.
On the other hand, though, whenever I watch him, he’s always impressive. I mean, the guy just hits and I don’t know if there is a pitch that he can’t hit. I actually think that’s why he chases so much – he knows that he can hit anything.
He doesn’t chase things that are way out of the zone, which is a positive, but he is more than willing to expand the edges of the zone in his effort to hit everything.
Prieto obviously isn’t going to make the roster and isn’t even a player I’m particularly high on but he has had a great spring so I wanted to at least bring him up in my final Spring Training notebook.
The Final Roster
The Cardinals seem to have their Opening Day roster set after a series of roster moves on Saturday.
The most notable decision was sending Victor Scott to minor league camp (and that is a decision I agree with).
Victor Scott II has been reassigned to minor league camp.
Dylan Carlson is the CF.#stlcards
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) March 23, 2024
This decision not only means that Dylan Carlson will be starting in center field but that Michael Siani has also made the roster.
Other #STLCards notes:
Michael Siani has been informed he’s made the club.
There is one open bullpen spot remaining, which will be decided most likely in Arizona.
Remaining spring starters: Lynn (3/24), Matz (3/25), Gibson (3/26)
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) March 23, 2024
The bullpen and rotation also have some clarity too.
Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said Sonny Gray will start the season on the IL. Zack Thompson will make the club and start in the rotation. Matthew Liberatore will also make the club and be in the bullpen. Lars Nootbaar also set to start the season on the IL. #STLCards
— Lynn Worthy (@LWorthySports) March 22, 2024
So this means that the position battles have pretty much been decided. While the official reporting still has the final bullpen spot as an open competition, I think that is all but decided too.
I would be shocked if the bullpen didn’t get consist of the following 8 names:
With the news today, I’m guessing the Opening Day bullpen looks like…
Right Side:
– Helsley
– Gallegos
– Kittredge
– Fernandez
– O’Brien
– PallanteLeft Side:
– Romero
– Libby— Blake Newberry (@bt_newberry) March 22, 2024
This has the potential to be a really solid bullpen and it’s a group that I’m excited to watch.
The outfield will seemingly have the alignment that I argued for in last week’s notebook – Brendan Donovan in left field, Dylan Carlson in center, and Jordan Walker in right, with Siani as the bench glove and late game substitute.
Basically everything that happened here I agree with.
I don’t want Victor Scott rushed to the majors just because there’s a hole in centerfield for a few weeks and I also want to see Carlson get a few weeks of regular starting playing time. And then in the bullpen, Riley O’Brien absolutely deserves to be on the team and I’m curious to see what Pallante looks like after some offseason work.
I was hoping the Cardinals would end up making exactly these decisions and I’m glad they came to these conclusions.
Final Thoughts
With the regular season beginning this coming week, this will be my final Spring Training notebook. I hope you enjoyed the series! I had a great time writing these pieces and looking into what tweaks some players were working on and seeing what prospects stood out this spring.
Thanks for reading!