Assessing the Cardinals players with the most surplus value
The St. Louis Cardinals continue to be in a holding pattern when it comes to a decision on the direction for the 2025 trade deadline. With the Draft and the All-Star game now in the rearview mirror, the organizational focus is towards what’s best for the future. I don’t expect the Cardinals to make a decision until the conclusion of the Padres series (July 24-28). If the Cardinals wind up going 7-3 or better in that 10-game stretch, I can’t see John Mozeliak justifying to the clubhouse, coaching staff, or fanbase that selling would be the correct decision given that they’d be at their season high watermark of 9 games over .500 or better.
That said, let’s play devil’s advocate: if they continue to slide the way they did leading into the break, it would not make any sense to add even minimal upgrades. Instead, the could sell off short term assets and/or roster redundancies in an effort to continue setting up the new regime with more assets to accomplish their roster building goals. As we know, players have to have value in order to get something in return. Let’s take a look at the current roster and their surplus value.
The industry has assigned 1 fWAR to be the equivalent of $9 million as the going rate. We will also use the “dollars valuation tool” on Fangraphs to set their produced value. From there we will subtract the players generated value from their performance so far this season from their average annual value of their contract to determine how much surplus value they provide. We will then break the players down into groups to assess them more fairly.
The No-Trade Trio
Sonny Gray- 24.40 million – 24.95 million AAV = -550K
Willson Contreras- 14.80 million – 17.50 million AAV = -2.70 million
Nolan Arenado- 9.40 million – 30.50 million AAV = -21.10 million
It’s almost not even worth talking about these three as Gray and Contreras have been vehemently opposed to the idea of being traded and would likely exercise their clause in their contract to prevent such a thing from even occurring. When it comes to Nolan Arenado, it’s worth mentioning the Rockies are still paying a portion of Arenado’s salary, however the Cardinals would still have to kick in a significant amount of cash in order to get any type of value in return. With both term and significant dollars allocated to Arenado, I don’t think he’s at all likely to move unless the Dodgers pulled a 180 on their stance and decided to add despite stating they’re not looking for a 3rd basemen in Muncy’s absence.
The Lineup Lefties
Brendan Donovan- 20.00 million – 2.85 million AAV = +17.15 million
Alec Burleson- 9.80 million – 779K AAV = +9.01 million
Nolan Gorman- 4.10 million – 783K AAV = +3.31 million
Victor Scott II- 13.70 million – 764K AAV = +12.93 million
Lars Nootbaar- 8.30 million – 2.95 AAV = +5.35 million
This is a group where there is significant surplus value. When it comes to “roster redundancy” this could be a place the Cardinals would deal from to add somewhere else they’re weaker in. Perhaps Lars Nootbaar for a controllable starting pitcher could make some sense should an opportunity present itself. Knowing the type of leader and performer Brendan Donovan is I wouldn’t expect them to consider shopping him but instead consider him part of their core moving forward. Same with Victor Scott — I can’t imagine a realistic scenario where they would consider moving him in a deal. Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman are two of the more intriguing options from this group as they both hold surplus value and also are redundant to each other as bat first left-handed options who profile best at DH, but are versatile enough to adequately stand at multiple positions to get their bats in the lineup. I don’t think either would get moved until the offseason as the second half could go a long way to providing clarity on what these players are currently from an offensive consistency standpoint.
The Rotation Righties
Miles Mikolas- 5.40 million – 18.58 million AAV = -13.18 million
Erick Fedde- 900K – 7.50 million AAV = -6.60 million
Andre Pallante- 2.80 million – 2.10 million AAV = +700K
I know this is going to be a controversial opinion but neither Mikolas nor Fedde have any value for the Cardinals to cash in on. Mikolas having a no trade clause and an aversion to waving it would likely indicate he’s here through the remainder of the season. Fedde could hold some appeal as a cheap buy low option to a team searching for depth. I don’t think you could get much in return for him beyond a lottery ticket or a depth piece, bu how do you weigh a lackluster return versus giving Michael McGreevy his own runway to show what he can do in an extended stay? The Cardinals seem intent on doing that regardless, so it will be interesting to see what desperate team caves for a healthy arm and would be willing to give the Cardinals for Fedde. Pallante has a slight amount of value but with the Cardinals pitching depth being as thin as it is, it would be highly unlikely; they likely wouldn’t consider moving him unless they were presented with an upgrade with similar or greater team control.
Men in the ‘pen
Ryan Helsley- 1.70 million – 8.20 million AAV = -6.50 million
Phil Maton- 7.10 million – 2.00 million AAV = +5.10 million
Steven Matz- 8.80 million – 11.00 million AAV = -2.20 million
JoJo Romero- 2.80 million – 2.26 million AAV = +540K
Kyle Leahy- 2.40 million – 767K AAV = +1.63 million
John King- -3.30 million – 1.61 million = -4.91 million
Last July would have been the ideal time to cash in on closer Ryan Helsley. This season with an inflated salary, and as a rental, his value is significantly lower than it was this time last year. An acquiring team would still give you something in return but the ship has sailed on the prime-time return. A “comp pick” value player should be the baseline ask in any discussions otherwise the Cardinals should hold Helsley as it’s unlikely he would accept a qualifying offer this offseason in pursuit of a multiyear agreement. Phil Maton would actually be a higher value piece that could get you something in return that might surprise some people. Steven Matz would probably generate a light return but something nonetheless. JoJo Romero with 1.5 years of control and the ability to close games would be the type of arm that gets an overpay type of return that we saw last season at the deadline. I wouldn’t expect Kyle Leahy to be moved, but if a team came and offered something unexpected, I think the Cardinals would listen. John King is closer to a DFA candidate than a trade chip. He has negative value in performance this season and an above league minimum salary. Barring a big 2nd half performance, I would expect him to be a non-tender in the offseason.
Extension candidates
Ivan Herrera- 13.1 million – 770K = +12.33 million
Masyn Winn- 20.50 million – 771K = +19.73 million
Matthew Liberatore- 14.00 million – 776K = +13.24 million
These players are more likely to receive long term extensions in the offseason than be traded by the club. However, I could ONLY see them being on the table for a superstar, franchise altering, piece. Ivan Herrera’s bat alone looks like one that will play in the middle of the lineup for the next half decade at minimum. His long-term defensive home is a question but the athleticism he possess would lead you to believe he can transition away from behind the plate and be a capable player in a corner and DH. Masyn Winn has established himself as one of the premier defensive shortstops in the league and a league average bat which lends to significant franchise value. At just 23 years old he would seem to be an incredibly smart bet to see his bat go from a 98 wRC+ to maybe a 115-120 at his peak in 2-3 years. Finally, Matthew Liberatore has established himself as a strong number 3 starter and could even be a number 2 in a couple seasons once he reaches his peak, as well. Perhaps buying out his arb years and a couple seasons of free agency would be a worthwhile gamble for Chaim and Co.
Depth “value aisle”
Pedro Pages- 3.00 million – 770K AAV = +2.30 million
Yohel Pozo- 4.70 million – 760K AAV = +3.94 million
Luken Baker- 200K – 770K AAV = -570K
Michael Siani- -700K – 770K AAV = -1.40 million
Given the teams love of Pedro Pages behind the plate and years of team control remaining, I wouldn’t suspect he would be a player they would be likely to move though he does have some value. Yohel Pozo has managed to play his way into some unexpected positive value. Similarly to what we saw with Richie Palacios in 2023, could the Cardinals look to sell high at a position of strength with an impending arrival of Jimmy Crooks III and Leo Bernal in close proximity to the MLB? Luken Baker has continued to mash homers at the AAA level but lacks the runway opportunity to prove it at the MLB level. Could he bring you a depth starter at AAA who is in a similar spot with his organization? What about Michael Siani? I recognize that the dollars system isn’t too kind to him this year but on defense alone the dollars value gave him a +8.70 million in 2024 so he could be an attractive option to an opposing team in need of an elite outfield defensive option down the stretch and his skillset is always valued this time of year.
Do Not Touch
Jordan Walker -6.70 million -771K AAV = -7.41 million
J.J. Wetherholt 50 FV n/a
Quinn Matthews 50 FV n/a
Rainel Rodriguez 50 FV n/a
Jimmy Crooks 50 FV n/a
Tink Hence 50 FV n/a
The phrase “cold, dead hands” comes to mind when thinking of this group considering the current direction of the club. I would of course include first round pick Liam Doyle into this group as well, but Fangraphs prospect rankings won’t be updated until after the deadline. Just assume he’s included in that group as well. Jordan Walker is the name that’s most intriguing in this group. He doesn’t have the flexibility that the others have, given his use of options in 2 seasons already, but his age and ceiling falls in line with what the rest of the group is, and given that you’d be selling him at an unnecessarily low value, it would be more of a disservice to the organization than anything at this point to not give him at least the 2nd half to prove he can get his footing at the MLB level. If I’m John Mozeliak, I’m letting Jordan Walker be a Chaim Bloom decision, as I’ve messed with this kids progress enough as it is.
The Cardinals have pieces to deal, some unexpected, some with slight value, some with enormous value, and some who are redundant to the future of this team. Oliver Marmol on the Gashouse Gang show on KMOX said two weeks ago “We’ve seen everyone we’ve needed to see and I don’t think at this point there is anyone who I’m saying we haven’t given a fair shot to.” The Cardinals seem to have enough sample to make decisions on players at the deadline and it is yet to be seen just how aggressively John Mozeliak will act on those assessments. We know Bloom will be consulted with anything impacting the organization beyond 2025, but make no mistake this deadline is still Mo’s show to run. The word I’m hopeful he and the front office group uses as their north star at this year’s deadline is “opportunistic.”
-Thanks for reading