A chance to finish the Contreras business left from last time. There is sure to be fireworks. Oh wait…
Intro
July 4th comes upon us. Fireworks galore. Out west, they are not recommended.
The 47-41 Cardinals will complete a long road trip with this series. It really completes the end of a grueling month of games where they have had one whole day off in the last month. The Cardinals will have enjoyed a needed off-day before this series starts, get another after the series ends, then 6 home games leading into the 4-day All-Star break.
The 52-35 Cubs are continuing a homestand that started with hosting the Guardians, whom they swept. They play well at home. Of course, the last team that swept the Guardians immediately went into a deep offensive funk. Just sayin….
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
Friday – Mikolas vs Rea @ 1:20p (all times Central)
Saturday – Liberatore vs Taillon @ 1:20p
Sunday – Fedde vs Boyd @ 5:10p
** Don’t sleep on the Sunday game being a night game – ESPN
Quick peek (not peak) at the pitching/run prevention
The Cubs are being coy with their pitching plans yet again. Are we surprised? I’m sure they are scouring for left-handers to start (or Keller, if the rumors are to be believed). That is out, since Keller started (and shut out the Cardinals on Wednesday). Based on their current rotation, it projects to be:
On Friday, now 35-year-old right hander Colin Rea takes the mound. He carries a 4.37 ERA but a 4.82 FIP. His xFIP is between those two. He carries a 16.9% K rate and 5.7% walk rate. He and Mikolas could be twins.
On Saturday, 33-year-old Jameson Taillon toes the rubber. He carries a 4.44 ERA and a 5.16 FIP. 19.1% K rate and 5.2% walk rate. His Statcast profile is more blue than red. He will feature lots of off-speed stuff trying to get soft contact.
On Sunday, we should see 34-year-old lefty Mathew Boyd. Another lefty! 2.65 ERA, 3.57 FIP. He gave the Cardinals fits last time out.
Statistically, the Cubs bullpen looks a lot like the Cards. Low K rate. Same walk rate. I’m hoping we see Palencia pitch to Contreras again.
Chicago is top 10 on defense by OAA at +11. The Cardinals +30 is making everyone else look bad.
A peak at the offense
The Cubs have become a team more vulnerable to lefty pitching than even the Cardinals, with a team wRC+ of 88 vs. LHP since May 1. They mash RHP to the tune of wRC+ of 120, although a bit less so at home (111) than on the road. Suzuki is really their only above average RH hitter.
Tucker-Suzuki-Crow-Armstrong is a strong 2-3-4 and counters R-L splits well. Although PCA has come off his meteoric highs of the early season and is now just ordinary good.
About the venue
Wrigley Field has become a somewhat pitcher friendly park, suppressing offense by 3%. Lots of triples, but I suspect that more impacts teams that have good speed. Neither of these teams appear to.
Overall
Games at Wrigley are often very weather dependent. Expect this weekend to be warm or even very hot. My recollection is that hot weather in Chicago suppresses the wind, but that is ancient memory, long before the renovations. I think the last time I was there was 1990.
Based on the pitchers and their season stats, this has the look of a high scoring series, which wouldn’t favor the Cardinals.
Expect to see a lot of Libby, King, Matz and Romero.
Cardinal updates
This team is deep into the dog days. I’m sure many Cardinals could use the 6 days off that come in the first half of July. In ways, they are out of players. Nootbar probably should be on the IL, but they don’t have an outfielder to replace him. Donovan is still nursing a sore toe. Arenado has owies, or at least a finger boo-boo. Herrera remains on the IL. Contreras has been a ball magnet lately. Pages is worn down.