A look at a reeling St. Louis Cardinals team that travels to the Mile High City to try and regain their footing against the Rockies
Intro
Sometimes the schedule smiles upon a struggling team and gives them a series that is a clear mismatch. Sometimes that smile belies an evil mirth beneath. Perhaps it is the Rockies way that he Gods of Baseball smile.
The Cardinals hope to get well against the bottom-dwelling Colorado Rockies, after getting their brains beat out in Arizona. The suddenly hot Rockies (ok, they won 2 of 3, which is hot for them) might have other ideas.
I will be there in person. It’s a great venue.
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
Monday – McGreevy vs. Gomber @ 7:40p (all times Central)
Tuesday – Fedde vs. Blalock @ 7:40p
Wednesday – Pallante vs. Freeland @ 2:10p
Quick peek at the Rockies pitching
Overall, the Rockies pitching has been very bad, unsurprisingly. They carry a 4.62 FIP as a team. As a group, they have collected less WAR (2.5) than Sonny Gray alone (3.0). The Cardinals FIP, by comparison is 4.06 (although may be much higher before the weekend series in Phoenix is done). They have given up 160 more runs than the Cardinals pitching staff has.
On Monday, the Rockies will deploy (shockingly) a lefty – former friend Austin Gomber. At 31, he is just recently returned to action and has only started 6 games. In very few innings (28), he has a 10% K rate and a 5% walk rate and carries a 5.65 ERA with a 5.56 FIP.
On Tuesday, we will see 24-year-old righthander Bradley Blalock, he of the 6.83 FIP in 13 MLB appearances. He has an 11.7% K rate and a 10.5% walk rate. I don’t quite know what to make of that.
On Wednesday, the Rockies will bring their best. 32-year-old lefty Kyle Freeland (likely) takes the mound in the matinee on getaway day. This is a double whammy, a lefty on getaway day is not the Cardinals favorite recipe. He carries a good FIP of 3.87 but an ERA of 5.19. He has a low K rate of 16.5% and a good walk rate of 5.9%.
A peak at the Rockies offense
If I find it, I will let you know. The Rockies have scored 100 less runs than the Cardinals.
Tyler Freeman leads with a wRC+ of 127, in less than full time play. That is supported by a .353 BABIP. His walk and K rate are about equal, both at rates of ~9%. Pozo’s brother by a different mother, perhaps?
Hunter Goodman appears to be their only serious hitter, carrying a wRC+ of 119. The K’s 26.7% of the time and only walks. 5.8% of the time. He does have 17 HR, which would lead the Cardinals by a fair bit.
The venue
Coors Field is one of my favorite venues for baseball. You have to see it in person to realize just how big the outfield is. Coors gooses offense a good 12% over average. Perhaps to the Cardinals benefit, it optimizes singles at a higher 15% rate. It really isn’t that much higher for HR (103), mostly because the fences are miles away.
Overall
In looking at the stats, I wonder how the Rockies have won 24 games. They really aren’t playing super young players, either, so I’m not really sure what to make of this team. It looks a lot like the Cardinals AAA Memphis squad. A bunch of older AAAA players trying to make the jump. They don’t appear to be a player at the trade deadline, as they appear to have nothing to trade.
Cardinal updates
You saw it right. McGreevy starts game one. There will be a corresponding transaction. If they don’t make a trade by then, I’d guess King, but that is a guess.
Liberatore essentially skips a start coming out of the break, so he will end up with two weeks off when he next pitches. I would view him as in a critical innings management phase for now.
The ASB hasn’t shown any rejuvenating qualities for the Cardinals, at least not yet. The pitching didn’t really get a break. Gray actually had his schedule shortened by 1 day less than typical, with somewhat predictable results.
I am going to hazard a guess than I will have the ignominious honor of watching Fedde’s last start in a Cardinal uniform while I’m in Colorado.