Cardinals restart after the All-Star break with a trip to the desert
Intro
When these two teams faced each other in May, the Cardinals came in at 4 over and the Dbacks were 2 over. That series was looked at as an early measuring stick for how the final spots in the wild card race could shake out. After the Cardinals swept, the DBacks were under .500 and have remained there.
Fast forward to today and we find the Cardinals have muddled their way to a 51-46 record to begin the proverbial second half 5 games over .500, still just a bit outside the wild card race at 1.5 games back.
The 47-50 Dbacks have muddled since then as well but have fallen pretty well off the wild card race, almost out of it at 5.5 games back. They remain a well-balanced team that hits and runs very well and seems to have enough pitching to compete.
Thus begins the run for the barn.
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
The Diamondbacks starters are projected. As I finalize this on Friday morning, they have not yet announced who or in what order, so I used the Roster Resource projection. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kelly moved from Friday to Saturday. I would be shocked to not see Rodriguez (a lefty) so the big question mark would be Gallen.
Friday – Pallante vs Kelly @ 8:40p (all times Central)
Saturday – Gray vs Gallen @ 6:15p
Sunday – Mikolas vs Rodriguez @ 3:10p
Quick peek at the Diamondbacks pitching
Overall, the Dbacks pitching hasn’t been what they expected or wanted. They are running almost 1 ER a game more than the Cardinals, although the names of the starting pitchers hint at a more competitive rotation that belie the numbers underneath.
On Friday, 36-year-old RHP Merrill Kelly gets the call. He brings an outstanding 3.47 FIP (and a better ERA) with a 24.4% K rate and 7.1% walk rate. The K rate and FIP numbers are a fair bit higher than when we saw him in May, indicating he has found another gear. He must be a weak contact pitcher, as his BABIPs tend to run low, as it is this year at .251 (which is not an outlier for him).
On Saturday, 29-year-old Zac Gallen (probably) takes the mound. He has an ERA of 5.40. Earlier he was under-performing his FIP by quite a bit, but FIP has begun to catch up to his ERA and stands at 4.80 (up from 4.24 in May). His 22.2% K-rate would represent a career low, and his walk rate has nearly doubled to 9.1%, which is … not good. This is a pitcher with many red flags.
On Sunday, the Dbacks shockingly(!) feature 32-year-old left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. Ignore the 5.94 ERA or 4.95 FIP. This game figures to be a tough one for the Cardinal offense as lefties of all ilk suppress the Cardinal offense quite effectively. His xFIP is 3.94.
A peak at the Diamondbacks offense
The Dback offense has scored 50+ runs more than the Cardinals. Their home park gooses offense pretty good (4th highest in MLB at +5%), so I’d say the teams are closer together than total runs infer.
They bring 3 hitters slugging greater than .500 in Carroll, Marte, Suarez. Smith and Perdomo have both fallen back after hot starts.
Overall
The biggest difference you will see is that Arizona is an excellent baserunning team (6th in MLB in BsR), whereas the Cardinal’s 22nd in the MLB stands out as poor. The DBacks are not the strongest defensive team (1 OAA team-wise), lagging the Cardinal’s stellar defensive output of 35 OAA.
I wrote the following snippet in May (and updated with current numbers). I think it is still valid:
In ways, it looks like the Dbacks and Cardinals are at similar crossroads. Veteran pitchers backed by some position players they might not be so sure about who they are. Is 29-year-old Pavin Smith (wRC+ 156 then, +130 now) a true replacement for Christian Walker at 1b? His career wRC+ is 104. He was on track for a 3 fWAR season (now more like 2), which would still double his career total. Is age-31 Ketel Marte capable of another 6.3 fWAR season, or is a harsh regression/decline in his near-term future? He still looks the part. Is Corbin Carroll ready to step up into super-stardom, as in Soto/Ohtani territory? He is on track for an ~7 fWAR campaign. And what about 25-year-old Gerardo Perdomo, their SS. He has already overrun his Zips season projection of fWAR at 3.1. What is his true ceiling? Much like the Cardinals, lots of potential variance, up and down.
Cardinal updates
The Cardinals come off an early July stretch beset with injuries and some horrendous starting pitching. The pitchers remain unchanged, but hopefully the performance will veer better. Donovan appears to be mending, and it is good to have Herrera back in the line-up. It is hoped that the ASB will have helped Arenado and Contreras recover. Nootbaar is on the IL and will be out of action for a bit.
That last bit leaves but one true outfielder on the active roster. The Cardinals optioned Saggese to Memphis yesterday but did not publish a corresponding promotion. This will likely be an outfielder. I’m expecting Walker but not assured.
With the draft and All-Star Break in the rear-view mirror, attention will now begin to turn in earnest to rumors and trade proposals to be completed by July 31. I think of this as baseball silly season, where everyone stops 2/3s of the way into the season and swaps players like we used to swap Strat-o-Matic cards. What will the Cardinals do?