Cardinals take on the Titans…err, the Dodgers at home
Intro
The 34-28 Cardinals are in the middle of a 9-game homestand that will be telling not only for its competitive significance but for the crowds it draws (or doesn’t).
The 38-25 Dodgers arrive in from Los Angeles having played for a week at home against the teams from Gotham (Mets, Yankees). We welcome old friend Tommy Edman home.
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
Friday – Yashinobu Yamamoto vs. Sonny Gray @ 7:05p (all times Central)
Saturday – Dustin May vs Erik Fedde @ 3:05p
Sunday – Clayton Kershaw vs Michael McGreevy @ 12:05p
Quick peek at the pitching/run prevention
Who exactly is in the Dodger rotation? They have started an amazing 13 pitchers already. They have an entire rotation on the IL. It looks like they shortened their quasi-six-man rotation to get two lefties in this weekend.
On Friday, 26-year-old lefty Yamamoto gets the call. He is really good. Perhaps the Cardinals can continue to have their way with really good pitchers. He does carry a 30% K rate and an 8% walk rate, FIP (2.74) thinks he is over-performing his 1.97 ERA. Swell.
On Saturday, the Dodgers will feature 27-year-old righty Dustin May. He carries a 24.8% K rate and an 8.5% walk rate. His FIP of 3.92 is a little better than the ERA of 4.20. He’ll give up a homer or two also. He has a decent 50.7% GB rate.
On Sunday, the Dodgers will present ageless veteran Clayton Kershaw, as the Cardinals continue to see a seemingly endless run of LHP. Message received. Kershaw is in his 18th season, having debuted in 2008. He is just getting started this year. In his 4 games, his ERA and FIP are over 5 and his K rate is actually lower than his walk rate.
Casparius, Dreyer and Scott form a pretty powerful trifecta out of the bullpen, each with a K-rate north of 28%. High octane. Kinda like the Mets, maybe better.
They rank smack dab average on defense at -.2 OAA, 16th in the MLB. Their outfield defense is pretty rough. Infield is good, except Muncy at third who is -5 OAA already in 2025.
Overall, their run prevention is pretty average, a little worse than the Cardinals by about .3 runs per game.
A peak at the offense
The Dodgers offense has lapped the field in runs scored. That have 9 above average hitters by wRC+, led by Freeman (187), Ohtani (187), Smith (177), Hernandez (146). They can hit. Pure and simple. They can outscore even Kershaw’s troubles.
Overall
This is a slugging team, with good (not great) pitching and average defense. A good combination. The pitching the Cardinals see this series may not be representative of what they might see in a potential October face off.
Cardinal updates
The Cardinals are coming off the Royals series at home where they had trouble containing a well-below-par offense. This weekend could get ugly.
Jordan Walker will not come off the IL on Sunday.
Has Oli made clear enough his intention on using (not) Jose Barrero? His spot is turning into a wasted roster spot.
The minor league roster re-alignment is in full swing.
Kaminsky released. Matzek signed. Church promoted to AAA. Baez promoted to AA. Rodriguez promoted to A- (at 18 years old!). Paige promoted to AA. Kross promoted to High-A. In a shocking development, Honeyman moved to the IL.