Cardinals finish a 9-game road trip with a visit to cross-state rivals in Kansas City
Intro
The 24-20 Cardinals are coming into the final stop of a 9-game road swing through Washington, Philadelphia and finally, Kansas City. This trip worried many, with visions of 0-9 or 1-8 as the potential outcome. The Cardinals got saddled with a day-night doubleheader on Wednesday, but a day off Thursday should alleviate some of the travel lag.
The 25-20 Royals are coming off their own quick one city road trip to Houston. This team features top talents Bobby Witt Jr and Maikel Garcia, along with a host of supporting talent such as Salvador Perez and old nemesis, Jonathen India.
The Venue
Kaufman Stadium favors offense, in terms of runs scored at 104 (5th highest in MLB). The outlier is that it suppresses HR like crazy at 83% (25th in all baseball), or 5% worse than even Busch. This stadium is 3rd in baseball in triples and 4th in doubles. This should match up decently with the Cardinal’s enhanced line drive rate in 2025. Similar to Washington, their pitching won’t miss the suppressed K’s (88%) because they don’t K that many hitters anyway (except Gray, who won’t pitch this series).
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
Friday – Pallante vs. Ragans @ 6:40p (all times Central)
Saturday – Mikolas vs Lugo @ 6:10p
Sunday – Liberatore vs Wacha @ 1:10p
Quick peak at the Royals pitching
Overall, Kansas City pitching is almost a run per game better than the Cardinals.
On Friday, 27-year-old Cole Ragans continues the string of lefties facing this Cardinal line-up. So far in 2025, that hasn’t played out quite so favorably for the opposition as it has in prior years. Perhaps an idea for an in-depth article. I digress.
Ragans features a stellar career FIP of 3.17, and the one bad start of his career was his last one. He features a high K% (38% this year, more like 30% career) with an equally low walk rate (7%). I’ve never seen him pitch but his stat line suggests he is a good one. Get this. He, too, is a lefty that emerged in his age 25 season. Go figure. I wonder if Texas regrets giving up on him.
On Saturday, right-hander 35-year-old Seth Lugo takes the mound. After a career year in 2024 that featured a 3.25 FIP, he has come back down to earth in only his third year of starting. K rate of 18% is not great, coupled with an ordinary walk rate of 7% suggests he is a BABIP reliant, pitch to contact hitter.
Goold had a note that Lugo has been scratched from this start. I can’t find any corroborating info from mlb.com or the KC Star beat reporter, so I don’t know who to plug in here. Will update later if I discover anything.
On Sunday, the Royals feature old friend Michael Wacha, now 33 years old and in his 13th season. His FIP has declined every year since 2019 (does that make it a trend?), supporting the notion that he is a better pitcher now than he ever has been. Similar to Lugo, he relies on weak contact with an even lower K and BB rates. With Libby vs. Wacha on getaway day, this could be a quick game.
A peak at the Royals offense
The Royals offense is definitely a tier below the Cardinals, scoring well over 1 run less per game. Their best hitters are Witt Jr and Garcia. Perez has struggled this year and no one else really registers on the leader board. Mostly replacement or below replacement bats.
Overall
The Royals defense ranks 4th in the MLB at 8 OAA overall, well behind the top-ranked Cardinals (24 OAA). While they are 5 over .500, talent-wise the Royals appear to be a .500, average-ish type of team buoyed by a 9-0 record against the White Sox and Rockies. Their good pitching, well fit to their stadium, keeps them in games. Sound familiar?
Cardinal updates
The Cardinals have won 5 of the first 6 on the road trip and look to finish strong. A day off after the late night in Philly is assuredly welcome for the team. Two series’ wins against Philly may make some folks sit up and take notice of these Birds on the Bat.