Is this series as “must sweep”?
Obviously, June has not gotten off to the start that the St. Louis Cardinals or the fans were expecting. After the month of May saw the Cardinals put up the best record in the Majors, they are now 4-10 in June and have fallen 7 games back of the rival Chicago Cubs for the division lead.
After their final off day for the month, the Cardinals head north to take on the AL’s worst team in the Chicago White Sox. While this Sox’ season is not nearly as bad as their historically terrible year, they are still pretty awful, sitting at 23-49 and 22.5 games behind the AL Central-leading Tigers. This three-game series is coming at a perfect time for the Cardinals as they look to right the ship. The Cardinals erased a nine-game winning streak in May with a six-game losing streak this month that has started their fall in the standings.
While it may be a little exaggeration to say that the Cardinals must sweep to save their season, a series loss could very well put the transition plan into full effect and the team could start to take their retooling plan seriously.
Series Preview: Cardinals at White Sox 6/17-6/19 @ Rate Field
GAME ONE, 6:40pm: Matthew Liberatore (3-6, 4.17 ERA) vs. Shane Smith (3-3, 2.37 ERA)
The series opener puts two exciting young arms against each other. Lefty Matthew Liberatore has put together a nice season since being moved to the rotation full time. However, the workload could be catching up with Libby as he has given up 12 runs over his last two June starts after putting up a 2.97 ERA in May. His 4.17 ERA does not tell the full story as evidenced by his 3.15 FIP/3.58 xFIP, but he has not surpassed five strikeouts in a game since May 6 against the Pirates.
The Sox counter with rookie Shane Smith, who Chicago stole from the Brewers in the Rule 5 Draft this offseason. Smith is the anti-Liberatore when looking at his numbers as his 2.37 ERA is well below his 3.45 FIP/4.08 xFIP. Through two June starts, Smith has allowed one run and struck out 10 hitters in 11.1 innings. For the season, his highest pitch total is 91 for a game so if the Cardinals can work some deep counts early, they could get to the porous Chicago bullpen.
GAME TWO, 6:40pm: Sonny Gray (7-2, 3.84 ERA) vs. Sean Burke (3-7, 4.71 ERA)
In the middle game of the series, two pitchers who want to put their last starts behind them toe the rubber. Cardinals’ ace Sonny Gray was hit hard in Milwaukee, giving up six runs on eight hits in 4.1 innings after just shutting out the Dodgers over six innings in his previous start. After problems with the gopher ball this season, Gray has done well to keep the ball in the ballpark as he has only given up one homer over his last five starts and the Sox have the third-lowest home run total in the Majors.
Sean Burke was also hit hard his last outing when he allowed seven runs on eight hits against the Astros. Burke has struggled all year with miserable peripherals showing a 6.88 K/9 and a 4.20 BB/9, while his 32.7% ground ball rate is 11th percentile in baseball.
GAME THREE, 1:10pm: Erick Fedde (3-6, 3.65 ERA) vs. Adrian Houser (2-2, 2.15 ERA)
The series finale puts former Sox Erick Fedde against former division opponent Adrian Houser. Fedde, acquired for Tommy Edman last season (which I still think was a deal that made sense although holding Fedde hurts a bit), revived his career with the Sox and has put together a decent second season in St. Louis. Since his complete game shutout, though, Fedde is winless over his last six starts despite a 3.34 ERA. Command issues are popping up again for the righty as he has walked 13 batters and allowed 27 hits over that same span, so he has been consistently working out of jams.
Adrian Houser came over to the Sox after spending last season with the Mets and the seven seasons prior in Milwaukee. Houser has never been a strikeout pitcher but he has done a better job this year of commanding the strike zone with an 8.5% walk rate to offset his 18.8% strikeout rate. In five starts for the Sox, Houser has tallied four quality starts but lost his last outing against the Rangers when he walked a season-high four batters. In his career against the Cardinals, Houser is 5-7 with a 3.62 ERA in 14 games but this will be his first outing against the Cardinals since last April.
OFFENSIVE TRENDS:
Trending up: Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, and Ivan Herrera have combined for 9 homers and 28 RBI over the team’s last 15 games. Miguel Vargas has been the Sox’ best hitter this month with an .883 OPS
Trending down: Lars Nootbaar should return to the lineup today but it will be interesting to see where Marmol puts him in the order. Over his last 15 games, Noot is hitting .115 with 22 strikeouts in 52 at-bats. The Sox have combined for 7 homers over the last 15 games. Mike Tauchmann and Luis Robert have struck out 27 times and are hitting .217 in that stretch.