The last series before the All-Star Break
Intro
The 50-44 Cardinals finish a home stand that leads into the All-Star Break. They are coming off a series win against the Nationals and look to continue the good mojo.
The 40-52 Braves come into the Lou to finish an unfriendly road trip. They are coming in overnight from Sacramento, CA after a night game out there Thursday night. The A’s were kind enough to start their series finale an hour early. Big of them. Then the game went extra innings, so they went late anyway. Would not be shocked to see a sluggish Braves team on Friday. This is a team going the wrong way.
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
Friday – Holmes vs. @ Liberatore @ 7:15p (all times Central)
Saturday – Bummer (opener) vs. Fedde @ 1:15p
Sunday – Fuentes vs. Gray @ 1:15p
Quick peek at the pitching/run prevention
Now here is a team that genuinely probably doesn’t know who is starting. They have a quality rotation on the IL, with some ugly injuries (Schwellenback has broken elbow!). Saturday looks to be a bullpen game for them, led off by a LH pitcher. Of course!
On Friday, the Braves will feature 29-year-old RHP Grant Holmes. He carries an ERA of 3.44 and an FIP of 4.24. 27.8% K rate and an 11.3% walk rate paints him as a three true outcome pitcher. He has a little bit of a HR bug, at 16% HR/FB percent.
On Saturday, it looks like a bullpen game for the Braves. I picked Bummer since he started their last bullpen game last weekend, and he is left-handed which is the primary search criteria other teams use against the Cardinals. 25.6% K rate. 8.3% walk rate. 3.41 ERA, 3.08 FIP. This guy might be tough on the Cardinals, but he might only be good for an inning or two. He also pitched .1 innings Thursday night, so I’d guess he’d be limited to 1 or 2 innings.
On Sunday, the Braves will go with 20-year-old Didier Fuentes, making his 4th MLB appearance. He only has 12 innings pitched, so not sure how valid his stats are. He is a guy right out of the Cardinals mold … low release angle makes a 94-ish FB play up, produces lots of swing and miss. Probably the most telling statistic … he is a 20-year-old IFA from Columbia already pitching in the big leagues.
Statistically, the Braves bullpen is similar to St. Louis. A few less meltdowns (44 instead of 50), same FIP 3.72, a few less shutdowns (68 instead of 73). Their closer, Iglesias, has good stuff, a very low walk rate and a serious HR bug for a closer (16.7%). They will come into this series a bit depleted after the A’s series.
A peek at the offense
The Braves’ offense is ranked 20th overall by wRC+. They appear to be total Jekyll and Hyde. They have 6 really good hitters (Acuna, Murphy, Baldwin, Riley, Olsen, Ozuna) and everyone else is at or below replacement level.
Initially I guessed that the 20th overall rank was the residue of starting the season without Acuna and Murphy, but no, they are 27th in MLB since June 1. What I can tell is that Riley and Ozuna are really slumping. For all their accolades, Albies, Ozuna and Harris are all below 50 wRC+ since June 1. Ouch.
Overall
This is a top-heavy team beset by pitching injuries in a big way. Age appears to be catching up to them a bit. Their outfield is a lot like the Cardinals in terms of having some black holes offensively. Been a repeating theme for them over the past few years. They do have one Ronald Acuna, though, which masks other issues. They started out the season really poorly and have really not been able to climb back to .500 since. Their outlook is not so favorable primarily because their starting pitching injuries appear to be long-term types.
Cardinal updates
The Cardinals are coming off a series at home against the Nationals that follows a pretty familiar script. Spotty offense against LH pitching. They are as good (or bad) as their starting pitching.
At last check, Jordan Walker continues to struggle offensively at AA. Wetherholt has advanced to AAA and gotten his first taste. Herrera has started a rehab at AAA.
The key question of the week was whether Erick Fedde would get another start. Disappointing to some fans, the answer is yes.