Cardinals welcome a near-peer NL team into Busch Stadium
Intro
The 27-23 Cardinals continue (and finish) the homestand against Arizona after a day off following a series loss to the Tigers. The Cardinals are looking for a strong finish to the month of May, having gone 13-6 so far.
The 26-24 Dbacks are coming into St. Louis continuing a road trip that started with losing 2 of 3 at the Los Angeles Dodgers (who got swept by the Angels last weekend, for those that missed that tidbit).
The Dbacks are a well-balanced team that hits and runs very well and seems to have enough pitching to compete. The Cardinals should be in for a tough series and this might serve as a pretty good measuring stick for how they stack up in NL wild card race.
Not that I pay much attention to the standings, but the relative reference point here seems noteworthy. Both teams today are just outside playoff qualification, 7th and 8th in the league with a 6-team playoff field. It would not shock if this remained so for much of the season.
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
Friday – Mikolas vs Gallen @ 7:15p (all times Central)
Saturday – Liberator vs Kelly @ 1:15p
Sunday – Gray vs Pfaadt @ 1:15p
Quick peek at the Diamondbacks pitching
Overall, the Dbacks pitching hasn’t been what they expected or wanted. They are running more than 1 ER a game more than the Cardinals, although the names of the starting pitchers hint at a more competitive rotation that belie the numbers underneath. The Cardinals miss Corbin Burnes this series, which I don’t mind.
On Friday, 29-year-old Zac Gallen takes the mound. He has an ERA over 5 and the last two starts have been worse than that. He underlying numbers are better (xFIP is 4.21). His 24% K-rate is in line with career numbers, although his walk rate has doubled to 10%, which is … not good. He has been severely bitten by the HR bug this year, so there might be some back luck here.
On Saturday, 36-year-old RHP Merrill Kelly gets the call. He brings a solid 3.79 FIP with a 20% K rate and 6% walk rate. He must be a weak contact pitcher, as his BABIPs tend to run low, as it is this year at .248 (which is not an outlier for him).
On Sunday, the Dbacks feature right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. He is a 3rd year starter who has shaved 1 full run off his ERA each year since he started. Both his ERA and xFIP are running under 4 (very good), but his FIP is 4.43 (not so hot). Over his 3 years, he appears prone to the long-ball, but the Cardinal offense isn’t really a long-ball hitting team and Busch is not really a home-run hitters paradise, so that may not factor much.
A peak at the Diamondbacks offense
The Dback offense is on par with, perhaps even a little better than the Cardinals. They’ve scored 19 runs more than the Cardinals, but their home park gooses offense pretty good (4th highest in MLB at +5%), so I’d say more on par than not.
They bring 4 hitters slugging greater than .500 in Carroll, Smith, Marte, Suarez, with Perdomo not far behind at .471.
The biggest difference you will see is that Arizona is an excellent baserunning team (3rd in MLB in BsR), whereas the Cardinal’s 24th in the MLB stands out as poor. The DBacks are not the strongest defensive team (0 OAA team-wise), lagging the Cardinal’s stellar defensive output.
Overall
In ways, it looks like the Dbacks and Cardinals are at similar crossroads. Veteran pitchers backed by some position players they might not be so sure about who they are. Is 29-year-old Pavin Smith (wRC+ 156) a true replacement for Christian Walker at 1b? His career wRC+ is 104. He is on track for a 3 fWAR season, which would triple his career total. Is age-31 Ketel Marte capable of another 6.3 fWAR season, or is a harsh regression/decline in his near-term future? Is Corbin Carroll ready to step up into super-stardom, as in Soto/Ohtani territory? He is on track for an ~8 fWAR campaign, if you are into projecting. I’m not. It’s raining outside. It rained yesterday (and the day before). At this rate, it will rain every day. That’s probably not a valid forecast. And what about 25-year-old Gerardo Perdomo, their SS. He has already overrun his Zips season projection of fWAR at 2.6. What is his true ceiling? Much like the Cardinals, lots of potential variance, up and down.
Cardinal updates
The Cardinals came off an outstanding 7-2 road trip to a tough series loss against the Tigers to start this brief 6-game homestand. I somewhat expect a little bullpen shuffling before the opener, as the chase side of the BP continues to be spotty. Scoring early and often, plus deep starts by starters has masked that concern recently but remains an issue.