For much of the season, we’ve been talking about how Ryan Helsley has been a top trade chip for the Cardinals. And why wouldn’t we? He was coming off of a career year in which he saved 49 games. The offseason presented the perfect opportunity to trade him to a contender and capitalize on his value.
This won’t be a piece where I talk about how Helsley should’ve been traded. You all have heard my opinion on that several times now, so I’ll spare you the usual rant. But I will touch on something I find very interesting at this point in the year.
Helsley got the save in Game 1 of yesterday’s doubleheader and went three-up, three-down. He has struggled in the month of June, and while he now has 14 saves, he owns a 3.81 ERA. That’s not bad by any stretch, but it’s a little high for a closer in my opinion.
As such, Helsley has probably lost some trade value. Relievers are finnicky, and they don’t always last in their dominant ways. It was fair to expect some regression from Helsley this year.
However, while the Cardinals could still trade him and get something good for him at the deadline, he is no longer their best trade chip. Instead, it’s Phil Maton.
Maton pitched the eighth inning yesterday in the first game of the doubleheader and went scoreless. His ERA is now down to 1.98 on the year.
Maton doesn’t have the same All-Star track record that Helsley does, but we all saw last year what selling teams can get for rental high-leverage relievers. The way Maton has pitched, he’ll bring back a king’s ransom if he keeps it up.
But at this point, he will likely get you more than Helsley will. So now, it wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing to hold onto Helsley and trade Maton instead. You can still bring in some solid prospects that will restock the minor league pitching supply. I’m not in any way saying Helsley doesn’t have any value, but right now, Maton has more.
Five games over .500 isn’t enough to convince me the Cardinals shouldn’t sell to some degree, and I think they would be wasting a great opportunity if they didn’t trade Maton at the deadline.
The best time to trade Helsley has passed. He can still get you something, but his value his almost certainly gone down a bit.