The Cardinals have managed to keep themselves in contention and continue to watch young player’s progress
It’s July 1st! So, of course I’m going to talk about the trade deadline at some point in this piece. Save your snark commenters I will also provide some of that in depth analysis you guys know and love as to separate me from “Friday man.”
Assessing the first half
Back in Spring Training after attempting to trade Nolan Arenado and having deals fall through because of the player exercising his right of his “no trade clause” and because Boston opted to sign Alex Bregman rather than make a deal with the Cardinals. President of Baseball operations John Mozeliak decided at that point that the team would be a team that would try to do both give runway to young players and attempt to compete in the NL Central. Most people, fans and media alike, didn’t give much credence to this philosophy as it continued a trend of being stuck in the middle. Which for a baseball team is essentially purgatory when it comes to long term direction.
The Cardinals made it through Spring Training healthy and even added a reliever, Phil Maton, to a modest 1 year 2-million-dollar contract. Through the first half of the season that deal has looked like a steal and Cardinals beat writer for the Athletic, Katie Woo has stated “If you’re going to only make 1 move in the offseason you better make it a good one and they have.”
We have seen some impressive performances from players who fall under the “runway” category including Matthew Liberatore, Ivan Herrera (when healthy), Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, Kyle Leahy, and Pedro Pages. We’ve seen veteran players create a stable foundation for consistent play on the field like Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Masyn Winn, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, JoJo Romero, the aforementioned Phil Maton, and Ryan Helsley (most of the time.)
Yohel Pozo has been a fun story and an important piece of the puzzle as Ivan Herrera has had issues with durability and performance behind the plate. Nolan Gorman got off to a strong first week of the season, had the small stint on the IL, and then was not the same for about 2 months after until his recent 3 week stretch where he has shown some of the old promise that the Cardinals have wanted to see. Jordan Walker, another young player who was hopeful to take advantage of runway, has experienced his share of offensive struggles and injuries. He’s taken steps forward defensively however, to the point he was actually a defensive replacement late in games! A 2 week stretch at the end of May looked like Walker had found something and was starting to find consistency offensively before wrist inflammation sidelined him and seemingly caused Jordan to lose his approach when he came back, once again, flailing at pitches low and away.
Alec Burleson is someone I wanted to key in on. Hat tip to Bernie Miklasz for his recommended date where Alec Burleson’s season started to take off. April 22nd to June 28th amongst left-handed hitters, in that time frame he has a 148 wRC+ which ranks 7th in MLB. His .324 batting average is number 1 in that qualifier, as well. 7th in slugging (.551), 7th in wOBA (.383), and 7th in OPS (.899). If there were one hitter outside of Ivan Herrera who has taken advantage of their runway this season, it’s Alec Burleson. As far as his defense is concerned, it hasn’t been a dramatic black hole anywhere you put him. At 1B he’s a 0 OAA, in LF he’s 0 OAA, in RF he’s -1 OAA. Essentially, you’re getting a league average defender and a top 10 left-handed bat in baseball for the majority of the season. He deserves a spot in the plans long term for his performance so far this season. The real question that remains is can he sustain for the full remainder of the season because as we saw in 2024 his 2nd half fell off precipitously and to be a long-term anchor in the lineup you have to be capable of hitting for a full season. But for now, Burly is Barreling Biscuits out of Busch. Bitchin’!
Erick Fedde is another player I wanted to do a mini deep dive on. Among 70 qualified starting pitchers in MLB this season Fedde has the worst K-BB% at 5.1%. Tarik Skubal has a 28.1% for reference as the best in baseball and Framber Valdez is 35th, so middle of the pack, at 15.7%. Fedde also features the 7th worst BB% and is the worst rated pitcher when it comes to xFIP at 5.06 and SIERA at 5.20. Fedde, also has the 11th worst WHIP as well. It’s also not like he’s limiting hard contact either. Fedde has the 9th worst hard hit% at 35.4% Those who were hoping that Fedde would be some sort of trade piece at the deadline is effectively worth a bag of balls in value this deadline season.
Early Trade Deadline thoughts
Let’s talk about the Cardinals needs at the deadline. After an 8-3 stretch that has put the Cardinals back in the thick of the playoff picture in the NL. The Cardinals are not going to move significant assets to acquire premium talent. That’s just not something they appear willing to do this year and that’s okay! But that doesn’t mean they can’t add small pieces or role players to improve their margins. The Cardinals had 44 wins at the 81-game mark which, according to my junior college math, that means they’re on an 88-win pace. Can they add small marginal pieces that could put them over the 90-win threshold?
Could swapping a Fedde for a McGreevy make sense as an internal improvement? Sure. Could Fedde get you a depth starter to backfill McGreevy’s spot in AAA? Possibly. The two spots the Cardinals could upgrade, that could add the additional marginal impact I’m suggesting, would be in the bullpen and adding a veteran bridge reliever and the need for a capable right-handed bat to balance the outfield against LHP.
Ivan Herrera can be one of those balance impact bats against LHP once he returns. In 24 games against LHP this season, Herrera, has a 221 wRC+, .491 wOBA, and an 1.189 OPS. Since Herrera went on the IL on June 19th, the Cardinals offense, are 20th as a team in wRC+, 20th in wOBA, 22nd in OBP, 16th in SLG, and 18th in OPS. Relying on Herrera’s return alone would leave a lot to be desired from a roster building perspective as he has already experienced 2 major stints on the IL this season an additional bat with control beyond 2025 would make sense.
The Miami Marlins have a player who would be an ideal candidate. Dane Myers, a 29-year-old outfielder, in 61 PA’s against LHP this season has a 182 wRC+, a .439 wOBA, a .426 OBP, .589 SLG, and a 1.016 OPS. Myers also rates out as a plus defender with +2 OAA and his arm is plus as well averaging 93.7 MPH on his throws putting him in the 96th percentile according to savant. Last tidbit on Myers is his sprint speed being 28.2 Ft/s rates him in the 73rd percentile. I would have a hard time imagining Chaim Bloom wouldn’t sign off on this player being added and the question will ultimately come down to cost in player capitol.
Miami also features a right-handed reliever who would fit nicely into the bullpen mix. Anthony Bender, a 6’4 RHP has pitched to a 2.41 ERA this season. Bender is a groundball pitcher more than a strikeout artist. Featuring a Sweeper, Sinker, Slider he is in the 74th percentile of pitchers at 47.9%. For reference only Phil Maton has a higher GB% among Cardinals relievers than Bender. Bender will be first time Arb eligible in the offseason and has all 3 optionable years remaining maintaining flexibility and would represent an upgrade over John King or Chris Roycroft who have been used in similar ground ball situations with far less effectiveness this season. It is worth nothing that his xFIP is 4.77 this season but that doesn’t concern me as much given he would be moving to a St. Louis club that has excellent defense behind him.
Again, human capital cost will be the ultimate driver in what the Cardinals are willing to do this deadline. These are the types of players I think the Cardinals will target with the intention of adding players that help now and future seasons ahead.
-Thanks for reading