Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is having the least-productive season of his storied big league career, but the soon-to-be 37-year-old made clear to MLB.com’s John Denton that he has every intention of continuing his career in 2025. The seven-time All-Star was named the National League MVP as recently as 2022, but he’s seen a notable drop-off in virtually every offensive category in 2024 — to the point where he for the first time in his career has been a below-average hitter (99 wRC+, 96 OPS+).
On the season, Goldschmidt carries just a .244/.302/.410 batting line. He’s still popped 20 home runs, but his 27.2% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rates are the worst of his career. To his credit, Goldschmidt has righted the ship of late; over his past 150 plate appearances, he’s slashing a much-improved .295/.342/.532 (141 wRC+). He’s still not walking anywhere near his career 12.7% rate (6.3% during this hot streak), but he’s cut his strikeout rate (23.3%) to be closer to his career levels.
Goldschmidt made no excuses regarding his struggles this year, noting that even spite of solid batted-ball and running metrics via Statcast, “there’s no denying I haven’t played well.” The five-time Silver Slugger winner acknowledged that his struggles have “created some bad habits” with his swing that have been hard to break. Fans of both the Cardinals and Goldschmidt will want to check out the interview in full, as Goldschmidt offers candid reviews of a down season at the plate. Denton also spoke with manager Oli Marmol who said he “loves” Goldschmidt when asked about a potential reunion for the upcoming 2025 season.
Obviously, that won’t be Marmol’s call at the end of the day. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak originally acquired Goldschmidt from the D-backs (in exchange for Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andrew Young and a 2019 competitive balance draft pick the D-backs used to select Dominic Fletcher, whom they traded to acquire righty Cristian Mena this past offseason). The Cardinals quickly extended Goldschmidt on a five-year, $130MM contract, and he’s playing out the final season of what’s proven to be a good deal for the club at the moment.
The Cardinals reportedly have some interest in bringing Goldschmidt back, but there are in-house options to consider as well. Twenty-five-year-old Alec Burleson opened the season with two months of roughly average offense at the plate before catching fire in the summer. He’s now hitting .280/.320/.453 on the season overall. Burleson has primarily served as a corner outfielder and designated hitter in 2024, but he’s not a strong defender in the outfield. A move to first base could be of benefit, particularly if the Cardinals envision another shaky defender, Jordan Walker, as the team’s right fielder in future seasons.
There’s also 27-year-old Luken Baker to consider. While he’s older than the standard “prospect,” Baker bashed 33 home runs in just 84 Triple-A games in 2023 and has swatted another 32 big flies in 108 Triple-A games this season. He’s yet to hit in his tiny sample of 126 big league plate appearances (.202/.325/.356, 30.2% strikeout rate), but Baker’s Triple-A track record of hitting for power is intriguing. At the very least, his right-handed bat could pair with the lefty-swinging Burleson to form a platoon, with both players also seeing some time at designated hitter. Baker has decimated lefties this season, posting a 1.142 OPS and homering in 15 of his 150 plate appearances against them.
A Goldschmidt reunion would limit the playing time for both Burleson and Baker. It’d be understandable if the Cards’ front office wanted to take whatever resources would be put toward a Goldschmidt deal and reallocate them to pitching help. At the same time, if the Cards believe the late surge from Goldschmidt is a portent for a rebound in 2025, then re-signing him on a short-term deal has obvious appeal.
From a payroll vantage point, there’s a compelling case to use the resources elsewhere. The Cardinals’ payroll has landed within a couple million dollars of $180MM in each of the past two seasons ($183MM in 2024), and per RosterResource, they have about $111MM on next year’s books already. That doesn’t include decisions on the matching $12MM options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, nor does it include arbitration raises for Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, John King, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Andre Pallante and Nolan Gorman.
Even at a presumably reduced rate from his current $26MM annual salary, Goldschmidt would likely still push the Cardinals north of $150MM (assuming arb raises for the entire class and just one of those two rotation options being picked up) before addressing any other potential offensive upgrades or starting pitching additions. That money could arguably be better spent focusing on other areas and turning first base over to a combination of Burleson and Baker — or perhaps simply a lower-cost free agent option (e.g. Carlos Santana).
Goldschmidt’s future is one of several key decisions for the Cardinals as they look to put disappointing 2023-24 seasons behind them. Last year’s club went 71-91, finishing last place in the NL Central. At 69-69, they’ll finish better than that in 2024, but they’re 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with only 24 games to play, making a postseason berth overwhelmingly unlikely this season as well. That would be their first consecutive postseason misses since a three-year absence from playoff play in 2016-18 and mark just the third time since the turn of the century that St. Louis has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.