The safer route
And here we come to the end of what I’ll call the 1st round series of previews. More accurately, the top 20 series of previews. I tried to cover every player who might get drafted in the top 20. I’ve covered the high school bats, high school arms, and college arms. Today, it’s the safest demographic yet: college bats. If you want to be absolutely sure that your pick will not be a bust, a college bat easily gives you the best chances.
Aiva Arquette, SS
Ranks: ESPN (#8), Keith Law (#4), MLB Pipeline (#6), BA (#4)
BA Scouting: Hit: 45. Power: 60. Run: 45. Field: 50. Arm: 55.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50
I was fully prepared to expect to want Arquette when I saw where he ranked and the fact that he’s a college bat. But interestingly, these write-ups really do not sound like a 5th overall pick. And it makes sense when I think about it. This is considered a weak draft, and the fact that it is dominated by high school guys leading it suggests there aren’t really strong college bats.
But Arquette is considered a strong college bat. He wouldn’t be ranked where he was if he wasn’t. Keith Law leads his profile with “Arquette might be the top college position player of the draft… but you’ll find people who say he’s a back-of-the-first-round talent, too.” And his competition is mentioned as being weak. Is he benefiting from being the best of a weak group, cause literally that is what it sounds like with these profiles even if none of the rankings are bad.
BA: “Arquette has a free and easy swing with bat speed that leads to huge raw power and the ability to drive the baseball with authority to all fields. After playing mostly second base with Washington, Arquette handled shortstop capably in the Cape Cod League—a position he hadn’t played regularly since 2022 in the West Coast League.”
ESPN: “He has plus raw power and is performing well (albeit against slightly lesser competition), so he is being mentioned in conversations all over the top 10, but has more in common with Braden Montgomery (12th overall pick last year) or Christian Moore (eighth overall pick) than the top college position players who went in the top seven picks of last year’s draft.”
MLB: “While minor wrist surgery cut into his fall with his new school, the right-handed hitter showed he has easy raw power to tap into, with more to come, and he’s used it in games consistently this spring. He routinely barrels the ball with good bat speed and a fluid swing, giving him the chance to be an above-average hitter with above-average power, and he could hit 20-25 homers annually as a big leaguer.”
Law: “Aside from that positional question, Arquette just hasn’t faced much good pitching this year; he’s seen enough velocity to say he can hit it, but he hasn’t seen much quality secondary stuff, and when he has faced harder sliders or changeups with some tumble, he hasn’t fared as well.”
Marek Houston, SS
Ranks: ESPN (#15), Keith Law (#5), MLB Pipeline (#12), BA (#15)
BA Scouting: Hit: 55. Power: 40. Run: 55. Field: 60. Arm: 60.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 60
If Arquette didn’t quite sound like a 5th overall pick, Houston definitely doesn’t. He’s a defense-first shortstop who is a pretty safe pick, but lacks a bit of upside due to his power. The best way I can describe how these four sites describe him is that he’s a Kolten Wong type of pick. Which ironically works as a comparison because Wong ended up being defense-first, but at the time he was drafted, it wouldn’t have worked since he was seen as safer for his bat.
BA: “ Houston is a plus defender with an arm that is also a plus tool and has earned a reputation as one of the better defensive infielders in the class. He has range to either direction, a great internal clock and does a nice job slowing the game down. He has all the tools to stick at shortstop at the next level”
MLB: “A Cape Cod League All-Star last summer, he has developed into arguably the best defensive shortstop in the Draft. He overhauled his offensive approach in fall practice and hit for more power during his junior season.”
Law: “The power is kind of an illusion, as Wake Forest plays in a shoebox, and nine of Houston’s 11 homers through May 13 have come at home, mostly wall-scrapers that would be doubles or outs in a typical ballpark. He does have very strong hand-eye coordination and almost never whiffs on pitches in the zone, with a short swing that had him over a 50 percent groundball rate as a sophomore but down around 44 percent this year.”
Jace Laviolette, OF
Ranks: ESPN (#12), Keith Law (#17), MLB Pipeline (#15), BA (#9)
BA Scouting: Hit: 50. Power: 70. Run: 60. Field: 55. Arm: 50.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 45 | Power: 65 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50
Not going to lie, I saw one comment and said nope. “The lone flaw in his offensive game does scare some teams, however, because he frequently swings and misses within the strike zone, even on fastballs.” It doesn’t seem like he’s considered a top 5 guy anywhere though, so not sure there’s a ton of risk. Depending on the scout, he may or may not be able to play CF, which at least distinguishes him from the typical high K, high power prospect.
Law: “He offers enough upside to go in the back of the first round, with easy plus power, some patience, and what will probably end up above-average defense in right field. He still swings and misses too often, and whoever takes him will probably have to work with him on his swing mechanics to cut that down.”
ESPN: “On the right day scouts see a 6-foot-6 plus runner who can play center field at least for now, has plus-plus raw power and is performing in the SEC. On the other hand, some evaluators see a long-term corner outfield with long arms that make him streaky offensively and will limit him to being a .240 hitter at best”
MLB: “Possessing as much raw power as anyone in the Draft, LaViolette is built to crush balls with a quick left-handed stroke, the strength and leverage in his impressive 6-foot-6 frame and a focus on launching pitches to his pull side. He also makes quality swing decisions and established an Aggies record with 64 walks in 68 games last spring.”
BA: “ With a 90th percentile exit velocity of 109 mph and a max exit velocity of 116, LaViolette generates impressive impact. He has double-plus raw power to all fields, and he has no issue getting to it in games. LaViolette has an advanced approach and his contact ability took a step forward this spring.”
Gavin Kilen, 2B
Ranks: ESPN (#24), Keith Law (#6), MLB Pipeline (#17), BA (#25)
BA Scouting: Hit: 55. Power: 50. Run: 45. Field: 50. Arm: 50.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55
Okay, I’m going to use Kolten Wong as an example again, because this kind of sounds like a Kolten Wong profile. I think Wong was an actual 2B, where in theory Kilen could be a SS. Though these sites pretty much assume he’ll be a 2B. He’s 5’11 and has an excellent hit tool, rarely whiffing, but there is some question about his power potential.
MLB: “He tends to swing too often and chase breaking pitches, sometimes putting pitches in play without much authority and rarely drawing walks. He has shown more power with the Volunteers but may not have more than average raw pop, and while his hitting ability should enable him to get to most of it, he has yet to prove he can drive balls in the air with wood bats.”
BA: “Kilen’s bat-to-ball skills are strong and he managed an impressive in-zone contact rate of 93%, including 95% against fastballs. He’s a hit-over-power offensive profile and might not grow into much more home run juice, though he should stick at a middle infield position, even if that’s more likely second base than shortstop in pro ball.”
Law: “ Kilen has punched out in less than 10 percent of his PA this year, and his whiff rate on pitches in the zone is just 10 percent (through May 13), yet he still hits for significant power, topping out over 110 mph and boosting his average exit velocity about 2 mph over his sophomore year.”
Ike Irish, C
Ranks: ESPN (#26), Keith Law (#12), MLB Pipeline (#21), BA (#13)
BA Scouting: Hit: 50. Power: 55. Run: 40. Field: 45. Arm: 65.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 55 | Field: 45
Okay, now I know you can’t draft for need, but Irish is a bat first catcher with questions about his defense. Can you think of a player type the Cardinals need less? His bat is advanced so he’d probably rise through the system quickly, that is unless you were committing to him play catcher and why would you bother with that in the Cardinals system if this dude is hitting? He got hurt and ended up playing half of his games in the outfield so he might be more of an outfielder at this point.
BA: “With two strikes, he gets deeper into his base and eliminates his stride. Irish has a short, direct swing with plus bat speed and sprays the baseball all over the yard with a gap-to-gap approach and power to the pull side. He’s shown strong collegiate bat-to-ball skills with great feel for the barrel and the ability to handle high-end velocity.”
Law: “ He’s about a 45 receiver now, needing some work across the board behind the plate other than his throwing, where he nailed six of eight would-be basestealers before his injury. His ability to hit, and to handle stuff on the outer third so well, gives him a different sort of floor than the typical catching prospect”
MLB: “Irish’s biggest proponents see him as a solid hitter with 20-homer power, while some evaluators worry that his left-handed pop won’t play as well with wood bats. He controls the strike zone well but chases pitches more than he should, resulting in too much ground-ball contact.”
Wehiwa Aloy, SS
Ranks: ESPN (#14), Keith Law (#15), MLB Pipeline (#22), BA (#17)
BA Scouting: Hit: 40. Power: 55. Run: 50. Field: 50. Arm: 50.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55
There are differing reports on his defense, with essentially three different reports on it from these sites. He gets called a true shortstop, best suited for 2B, and that he’s answered questions about it and his offense could profile well at 2B or 3B. But they all agreed on one thing: he struggles with breaking pitches. That is presumably why BA gave him a 40 hit tool, which is almost certainly too low, but it might not be a 50 either.
Law: “Aloy is a true shortstop with power and is an excellent athlete, hitting 17 homers so far this year for the Razorbacks but striking out 52 times, as he’s struggled against better breaking stuff.”
BA: “Aloy has above-average raw power, especially to the pull side, and posted a max exit velocity of 114 in 2024. While Aloy’s aggressive approach has worked for him, it also leads to high chase rates across the board. Picking up spin seems to be one bugaboo, and against breaking balls he has both a tendency to swing-and-miss and expand the strike zone.”
MLB: “His combination of bat speed and strength produces impressive exit velocities, and he’s doing a better job of letting his pop come naturally as a junior. His right-handed swing can get too uphill and he still chases too much, leaving him vulnerable to breaking pitches and leading to strikeouts and weak contact at times.”
Brendan Summerhill, OF
Ranks: ESPN (#27), Keith Law (#16), MLB Pipeline (#19), BA (#21)
BA Scouting: Hit: 55. Power: 50. Run: 55. Field: 50. Arm: 50.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55
If the Cardinals drafted Summerhill, it would make two Arizona products in three seasons in the 1st round for the Cardinals. Chase Davis has not necessarily gone as well as hoped, so I imagine that is not a comparison that helps Summerhill. There is even mention of a swing change to tap into more power. There is hope that he can play CF, but Arizona didn’t put him there this past season. So he’s probably a corner outfielder.
Law: “Summerhill has one of the best hit tools in the college class this year, with the potential for a little more power with some swing help. He’d be a top-10 pick if he could play center field, but the Wildcats moved him to right this spring and he wasn’t great in center in the Cape Cod league last summer.”
BA: “Summerhill has a smooth lefthanded stroke with above-average power to the pull side as well as advanced feel for the barrel to the tune of a 90% overall in-zone contact rate. His above-average speed and athleticism translate well to centerfield, where he has a chance to stick long term.”
MLB: “He’s shown a very good approach at the plate, walking nearly as often as he struck out in 2024 and limiting the swing-and-miss that some area scouts saw from him during his time in the Chicago high school ranks. Still, he’ll have to work on his tendency to chase at the next level. He’s just starting to tap into his raw power and it’s showing up right now mostly to his pull side.”
And we’ll stop there as I have long since passed “not going to be picked at 5.”