I am sitting here Monday night, July 7th, noticing the Pirates have lost 4 in a row, and the Reds 3 in a row, reminded it could certainly be worse. The last week, the Cardinals were humiliated in PIttsburgh by the basement dwellers, that sunken Jolly Roger ship… and then almost clubbed to death in Chicago. It could be much worse, if the Cardinals didn’t win one game on the northside by the lake. And if the Cardinals last ten games were any worse than 4-6. The Cardinals are still within talking distance, not shouting distance, of the playoffs. At least tonight, things seem like they could turn around. Ask me again tomorrow night.
Odds at postseason berth currently sit at a little less than 1 in 3. Not bad, but not confidence inspiring. Neither is the run differential, but at least it’s not negative like last season. Not right now. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it stays a positive. It’s tough to stay upbeat when you’re only slightly good though. The season has its ups and downs, but it’s starting to feel more familiar. This is a streaky offense with a rotation problem.
Is the defensive range still as freakishly good as it had been earlier in the year? There is good news: the team is still a top 5 team in Outs Above Average, just behind the Cubs. Who is in first? The Brewers! They are the elite defensive team in 2025. The Reds Sox and Padres are #2 & 3. Why are the Cardinals a top 5 team in preventing runs with defense?
Mostly because of Masyn Winn and Victor Scott II… but also, perhaps surprisingly: Willson Contreras at first base. He is +4 OAA, with Winn and Scott II at +9! Arenado is still somewhat of a defensive asset in run prevention (+2), and Pedro Pages is no slouch either. Gorman and Donovan are both right at average on defensive range, while outfielders Burleson, Nootbaar, and Walker drag down the range of the team defense.
It is now Tuesday, night of July 8th, after a long Nationals game, much of which was rain delay time. The game itself was pretty quick. Sonny Gray held the District Of Columbians at bay. There was another sloppy save involved, and an improved JoJo Romero, plus bullpen lynchpin Steven Matz. Hitting hero Brendan Donovan raised his All-Star offense to 128 wRC+ with his 8th home run, and a .368 OBP. An OPS north of .800 is really good for a second baseman, especially one who is not a defensive liability at the keystone.
Ever since Donovan’s debut season in 2022, we all knew he had another season like it in him. I have been hoping ever since then that he might even take it to the next level. His defense is improved since then, and here’s to Brendan surpassing 130 wRC+ before season’s end. We need some hitters to go on a run this summer.
So in midseason review I give Donovan an A-. I’d like to see him surpass his rookie season for an A, or become an even better player than we thought he could be for an A+. Brendan That gives you an idea of the simple grading scale I’m using here.
Ivan Herrera gets an A- too, just because he hasn’t had much playing time. He would be an A+ but he is limited to playing in 42 games.
Besides Herrera, this has been a very healthy team. It’s just that it could be missing it’s best player for half the season. That does hurt. What hurts more is that we still don’t know how good Herrera really is, while it’s safe to say he has been sorely missed.
Willson Contreras gets an A- as well, mostly because he has made the shift to first base so well that he is a plus defender there. And he runs much faster! His atrocious slump to begin the season drops him a point, but his offense has been pretty decent overall and about on par with what we would expect. I just hope he goes on a tear in August or September, or the rest of July! Just have a good season Willson! You’re an amazing first baseman! I would just like to see a few more home runs from first base. 11 so far is pretty good though.
Victor Scott II gets a B+ almost all for his defense and speed. If he starts hitting more like he did to start the season, he may improve to a league average hitter. VS II seems to be a resilient player who I think could raise his ceiling a little bit. He has usually had a higher BABIP in his career, and this year’s should be sustainable. If he gets a few more walks maybe he could raise his game a little. He probably should get a B but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Nolan Arenado gets a B. His BABIP is only .245 so I think he may have a better second half. However, his hitting is below league average and while 10 home runs is nothing to scoff at, it’s also not very exciting. His defense has had amazing moments still but is not saving a ton of runs.
Alec Burleson gets a B- because while he is running an impressive line of 123 wRC+, 11 home runs, and one of the better OPS on the team, he is batting .218 against left handed pitching. He probably should not play in games where a lefty is pitching. Burly also should be mostly limited to hitting, only serving as a backup first baseman and an outfielder in a pinch.
Lars Nootbaar gets a C. I want to give him a C+ but I just can’t. Maybe I should because he’s tied for the most home runs on the team with Willson Contreras, but I think his blah defense and 100 wRC+ might even make him a C-, but that name… and his walk potential.
As much as I love Nootbaar he needs to do better. His .263 BABIP is no fun, so I am really hoping for him to snap out of whatever is happening and hit like he did to start the season!
Nolan Gorman also gets a C. They have him on the cusp of full playing time but he just cannot seem to grab it. A home run hitter needs to have more than 8 home runs at this point in the season, even if his playing time is being limited. Gorman is even worse than Burleson at hitting left handed pitching and that’s all you need to know. He might be a starter on some teams but most teams he is a backup 2B/3B/DH. At least currently.
Pedro Pages also gets the C grade for being a borderline defensive backup. But he could be a starter on some teams. His Cardinals career is not destined to be a long one as a starter, with a burgeoning catching corps waiting to be promoted from the Cardinals farm system.
Which brings me to a point where hey, maybe Yohel Pozo should be the starting catcher? He has only played in 34 games, I know, but his batting skills have produced 122 wRC+ and in my memory is instilled many a clutch or ridiculous hit. His defense is not really a liability so more Pozo please. Pozo gets a B+ from me, with that normal .307 BABIP. Pozo the magician with a bat.
Sonny Gray gets an A. For ace! His season FIP is at 2.8, xFIP 2.91. His ERA will probably improve to under 3.5. He has already pitched over 100 innings. He might crack 5 fWAR before season’s over. Pretty dang good.
Matthew Liberatore grades at an A-. I believe he could do a little better, but he probably deserves an A, considering how much he has improved this season. At nearly 100 innings pitched we are in some uncharted territory after the season gets going too much longer. But he has been near ace level for much of the season, and a big ol’ pleasant surprise!
Phil Maton gets an A and probably should be on the All-Star team. His 1.85 ERA is just lights out, a 2.08 shows he’s for real, and a very reasonable 3.04 xFIP seals the deal on the A grade. Maybe even an A+ except that you’d like to see him throw less walks maybe.
I was wrong about Steven Matz, I thought he might crack the starting rotation this season. He is however a really good relief pitcher in 2025. Sure he is certainly depth for the starting rotation, possibly, but I highly doubt it at this point. He is useful enough in the bullpen: 3.38 ERA, 3 FIP, and 3.49 xFIP. Very good! Matz gets an A or an A+ if he becomes a good rotation starter. He has been the 6th man after all.
Andre Pallante gets a C+ because he hasn’t really lived up to expectations but he has shown some signs of possibly becoming what he was last season. A 4.1 ERA is not terrible, and his 3.64 xFIP makes me hopeful. If he has a much better second half that would really help a lot!
Miles Mikolas gets an F because of that Cubs game, a 5.26 ERA, and no real signs of hope across the statboard. He is starting to feel like a home run pitcher. I should probably give him a D because he had a great run during one part of the season, but y’know, recency bias.
Kyle Leahy gets a B, maybe a B+? Good bullpen arm. But I just can’t seem to imagine him keeping up some of the stats that I have seen him run before. He’s above average, for sure.
Erick Fedde gets an F, and that’s two for the starting rotation. Perhaps we are being a bit harsh and Erick deserves a D or D-, if anything because of his complete game… but F is for Fedde at this point, and a FIP of 5.55. This is a replacement level starter in the rotation during the “reset”.
Ryan Helsley get a B for being a sloppy but effective closer: 3.19 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, 3.77 BB/9. See how I snuck that walk rate in there? oof! He will more than likely have over 30 saves, so even though it’s painful, it works.
JoJo Romero is a tough one to grade: 2.7 ERA, 3.8 FIP, 4.75 xFIP. His 4.88 BB/9 scares me, but I know he can do better. Or can he? His BABIP against is really low at .263. That’s not really sustainable. But I’ll give him a B.
Matt Svanson I have seen pitch enough to give a B. Especially for a young he is really holding his own.
And to wrap things up before I fall asleep at the keyboard, John King gets an F, to be the only failed pitcher in the bullpen. Ok I lied: Ryan Fernandez and Roycroft also failed. Anyone else I didn’t mention I just think has not played enough for me to form much of an opinion. I must go to bed now.
Thanks for reading!
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