The Brewers are on a tear, the Cubs are really good, while the Cardinals stumble
How are the Brewers in first place now? The Cubs were just about running away with it… but then Milwaukee won 11 games in a row. The Brewers and Cubs are both really good at home, and above .500 on the road. The Cardinals are 23-30 when away from St Louis. Remember when the Cardinals were 9 games over .500 not so long ago? Well, they’re still 9 games over at home. Seems a little strange, but that’s what’s happening.
We are tied with Cincinnati, but they have the better run differential. Both teams 3.5 games away from the wild card race. They’re not out of it, but the month does not end well, they will have all but faded out of it. Sure there are still 2 months left, but I don’t think either team has the firepower to make a run at the playoffs. If anything, it would be the Reds, sadly enough. Are the Reds buyers? Ha! Now that’s a new thought.
So it would seem the Cardinals are going to be sellers, and ultimately, if that actually works out, would be the same as being buyers, since we would be promoting better players to replace the junk in the competitive veins. Get McGreevy into the rotation. Make Yohel Pozo the starting catcher, until he proves he can’t do it. Change things up. The team has become stagnant and feeling un-maneuverable.
Erick Fedde has a 5.22 ERA on the season. The trade was a huge mistake, but continuing to start him is just not tolerable. 5.09 FIP. Come on now!
You know what’s weird, the Cardinals offense is just as good as the Brewers’. So why are they so much better? And how can they compete with the potent Cubs offense? I mean, the Cubs have an offense that can compete with the offenses of the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers! The Brewers pitching is holding opposing teams to a .232 batting average. They strike out FAR more batters than either the Cubs or the Cardinals (who are around the same, not striking many people out!). Milwaukee is just far superior in the art of the K.
Only the White Sox and Rockies strike out less opposing batters than the Cubs and Cardinals. What about the Reds? Their pitching is more middle of the pack.
So maybe it’s the defense making Milwaukee the best? The Brewers are one of the best defenses in MLB… but so are the Cubs and Cardinals. All three teams play absolutely top notch defense. There is a difference about Milwaukee’s defense though…
While the Cubs and Cardinals have true star defenders in Masyn Winn (6th best MLB player in FRV), Victor Scott II (#12 MLB), Pete Crow-Armstrong (#1), and Nico Hohrner (#20), the Brewers just have more above average defenders so it’s above average defense by committee: Isaac Collins (#33), William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, and Sal Frelick (#42-44). Willson Contreras also helps the Cardinals cause a lot at #34 best defender in MLB by fielding run value, but y’know, he’s at first base. That said, all 3 teams have super good defense, but it seems like maybe the Cardinals and Brewers are a bit superior as far as number of talented defenders not named Pete.
Cardinals pitching is allowing one of the highest Hard Hit %s in MLB. That is a problem, and I think we know why that is so high. Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas! Fedde’s hard hit % is over 44%. Mikolas has given up the most barreled hits on the Cardinals by far. Helsley, Liberatore, Pallante, and several other Cardinals are also the culprits in hard hit percentage.
Fedde, Mikolas, and Pallante all have FIPs above 4.5. They are in the starting rotation. This is making it nearly impossible to be competitive. Of the 3 Pallante has a pretty good xFIP, but still, that is 3/5ths of the starting rotation sucking. Therein lies the problem.
The Cardinals have a better bullpen than the Brewers and the Cubs especially. So the season is being spoiled because of the Cardinals starting rotation problem. St Louis relief corps is top ten in MLB. And top 5 (tied with the Guardians for fifth) in FIP! With a superb defense and good bullpen, the starting pitching is probably getting actually too many innings! Because three-fifths of the rotation basically stinks. What a shame they cannot seem to pivot away from Fedde/Mikolas/Pallante. But Fedde is the worst of the three. Start with Erick. Or get all 3 out of the rotation somehow, I don’t care.
Is the Cardinals offense a problem? Kind of, not really? They’re a tad above average overall. They could use more power. But the team could win more games if the starting rotation gave them a chance. While Sonny Gray and Matthew Liberatore have been very good, they are not perfect and are not quite good enough to make up for the terrible trio behind them.
That said, the Brewers have even less power than the Cardinals do. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers fall back again. The one thing Milwaukee does have now is a true elite ace in its rotation. However, overall, the starting rotation isn’t really super impressive. The Brewers strike out more batters, but also walk more of them. I’m not so sure the Brewers can take the Cubs, but they certainly can take a wild card. I think the Cardinals could too, if they play their Cards right.