Thanks kindred for the recap
I overheard this at the SBN watercooler today:
“What a difference from two and a half weeks ago… Back then, we had no shortage of “doomers” saying that this team had no chance, and they should just break them up before it was too late.”
That’s not doc howl telling me to relax, that’s The Good Phight describing the recent Phillies run. Philly has won 5 consecutive series, going 11-3. El Birdos have won 8 in a row on the strength of elite run prevention, as well as an unexpected proclivity for hitting the hell out of the ball against elite pitchers (Skenes in Pittsburgh, Gore in Washington). More of that will be needed this week, as Gabe previewed.
Tonight, the marquee matchup in MLB features the top two National League teams in OBP (non-LAD division). Only three NL pitchers have more fWAR than Matthew Liberatore, who is pitching like Cole Hamels so far. Two of those are on the Phillies; Christopher Sanchez isn’t one of them, but his ERA is better than Zack Wheeler and his xFIP is better than Jesus Luzardo or Aaron Nola.
The key to tonight’s game? Same as every night, Pinky, it’s getting on base. Both teams are elite at it, but it could be a challenge tonight. Both teams are top-5 in the NL against LHP per wRC+, but these aren’t ordinary LHP. Sanchez has always gotten groundballs. The Cardinals are 1st in the NL in BABIP, propped up by a LD% that is 2nd in the league. But we also take our walks, and Christopher Sanchez has been conceding more of those while adding Ks. The sensible way for this game to be decided is on a groundball that finds a hole, but I’m a contrarian so I’m predicting a 450-foot Jordan Walker home run. (In the 6th.)
Barerro gets the start in CF, giving VS2 a breather. Herrera in at DH against the lefty. I love the road navy caps with away gray unis, we should bring those back full-time. Lezgo Birdos.
1st inning:
Positive opening for the good guys, even though we didn’t score, because we didn’t hit any groundballs. Noot hit a soft liner with xBA of .560 for an out. Sanchez blew a 96mph fastball by Winn on a 3-2 count, then Donnie got HBP. Nolan was sitting fastball on the first pitch, and drilled a liner to center, but it was caught by Rojas. Still, we seem to be seeing the ball.
Libby is dealing. Whiffed Turner for out #1, whiffed Harper for out #2, and got Schwarber to roll over one for a groundout. Easy as.
2nd inning:
Told you we were seeing the ball, Willson is CONFIDENT as he strokes a double into deep left-center. 110 mph exit velocity. Herrera struck out on another 3-2 pitch, nasty changeup. Couldn’t get the runner over. Pages also whiffed on a changeup, 2-2 count. Up to J-Dubs to drive in the run, Chip says he “put on a show in batting practice”. I’m guessing he wasn’t facing Sanchez’s changeup in batting practice, he also goes down on a 2-2 pitch. We are making Sanchez work a little, but attacking pitches earlier in the count is probably the best tactic. His walks are up this year, but this strike zone is enormous.
Libby grooves a fastball down the middle to Castellanos, and the sexy beast ripped a single to left. Realmuto also swings at the first pitch, and hits one on a string to CF… Barrero took awhile to read it but it was right at him. Bohm also lines one hard into CF, Barrero again struggles to read it but makes the play. Sosa rips one to the hot corner, but Nolan reacts faster than the cameraman and makes the play. All of these are 100+ mph, Libby’s getting a little lucky, but his pitch count is low again.
3rd inning:
Barrero, the surprise gift in the box of Cracker Jack, grounds to Sosa at 2B, but Noot gets a fastball up and shoots it the other way for a single. Winn lines one to CF with xBA of .550, but Rojas is a really good CF and he gobbles it up. Chip talks up Donnie’s ability to avoid strikeouts this year – it’s Yadi-esque – so of course his knees are buckled by a slider and he goes down looking.
Libby still dealing, strikeout of Weston Wilson and a quick flyout by Rojas. But Turner grounds a single to LF and Harper draws Libby’s first walk. Schwarbs is up, ruh roh. But Libby fools him with a slider, can of corn to LF and Noot waits for it. Libby with 38 pitches through 3 against a tough lineup.
4th inning:
I feel good about this one, the vets are seeing this guy. Yep, Nolan works a leadoff walk… his elevated walk rate this year is a big positive. Contreras shows bunt, takes a ball. Contreras looking at Bohm playing back… tries to drag bunt but foul tips it. Contreras gives one a ride to the track in CF, but it’s caught. Nolan tags up and TOOTBLANS, but Oli challenges and Nolan swam around the tag so it’s overturned. GOOD LEADERSHIP GUYS. Holy snikeys the Mavericks just won the NBA lottery, WOW. Also a WOW plate appearance who battles hard and draws a walk. Plus, Sanchez overthrew the 3-2 pitch and it went to the backstop, allowing Arenado to move up to 3B. Pages hits a chopper to 3B, Herrera is out at second, but slides in hard and Sosa’s throw is slung over Harper’s head. Walker lines a frisbee up the middle, but Sosa is positioned perfectly and snags it.
Cards score without a hit, 1-0, win expectancy 60%.
Libby gets the sexy beast to pop up meekly, but Realmuto gets lucky and golfs a soft double down the left-field line. Donnie makes a very nice play charging a soft grounder, scooping it with his glove to Willson in just enough time, but Arenado bobbles the next play and Realmuto scores the tying run. They score it a hit, might’ve been an error at Busch. Libby gets Wilson on a flyout.
5th inning:
Barrero grounds out weakly, and Noot would’ve too if Sanchez hadn’t deflected it for an IF single. Winn received an uncompetitive walk, and all of a sudden Sanchez looks a little rattled. Donnie advances the runners on a high chopper, and it’s up to Nolan. Who pops up and LOBsters two RISP. Feels like a missed opportunity.
Libby falls behind Rojas but induces a flyout on the 3-2 pitch. Libby is going a 3rd time through the order, at 59 pitches. No problem, Libby carves up Turner before Harper bounces to Willson with Libby covering. Libby was using more curveballs that, showing them a different look. He’s cruising, only 68 pitches.
6th inning:
Willson was aggressive, struck out on a changeup. Herrera has been hunting all night, and SMOKES one into the right centerfield gap, GONE for a homer. 108 mph, plenty of pace and juuust enough height. welcome back Ivan Herrera. Pages strikes out. Walker too, looking lost.
2-1 good guys, 62% win expectancy.
Let’s see if Libby can do ace shit. Schwarber lofts a soft single over Donnie’s head. Castellanos breaks his bat, Barrero gets yet another bad break, this one costs us as it plonks down safely for a single. Schwarber ends up on third, no outs. Neither of these broke 80 mph. Chopper to Nolan, he bobbles it, no double-play, Schwarber scores. Bohm drives a slider for a single to right, and that’s it for Libby. Leahy coming in with one out in the 6th. Tough luck for Libby, but he had a little earlier in the game. Stott pinch-hits for Sosa and gets ahead 3-0, but Leahy battles back and gets a flyout to CF on a 3-2 pitch. Barrero… well, it’s an adventure out there, but he looks like he’s having fun. Kepler in for Weston Wilson, and Willson makes a nifty diving stop to end the inning. PHEW.
2-2, we got a black eye that half-inning, not gonna lie
7th inning:
Strohm, the prototypical dirtbag lefty, is in. That means Barrero gets another PA, and he predictably hacked himself into a K. Noot lines one directly to sexy beast, who falls over but catches it on his way down. BANG Masyn gets into one, a lovely, luxurious home run SOARING into the left-field seats GUESS WHO’S BACK. That’s either a HR or an easy out, xBA of only .180 but a HR in 16/30 parks. Donnie almost goes back to back, but it dies on the track.
3-2 Cardinals, 66% win expectancy, the leverage is a-cracklin’
VS2 in for defense, Leahy stays in and looks more locked in while bending one by Marsh. Turner hits one about 350 feet to CF, Vic drifts over to catch it. Leahy made Harper look like a fool, excellent job by him and we’re set up nicely for Maton and Helsley now.
8th inning:
Kerkering in. Arenado pop up. Willson K. Herrerable laces one but Turner makes a nice play on a one-hopper and throws him out.
Leahy is staying in, having thrown 1 2/3 already, 22 pitches. Battling Schwarber, ump doesn’t give him strike 3. Pedro heldddddd it but couldn’t get the call. No mind, Leahy breaks Schwarber’s bat and he grounds out to Donnie. He retires sexy beast with another groundout, Masyn makes no mistake. Leahy had Realmuto set up 0-2, but left one over the plate and JT lined it for a single up the middle. Bohm with another single up the middle, JoJo in to face the lefties (who pinch-hit for the righties who started against Libby).
Get back to where you once belonged, JoJo.
Yesssss, JoJo pops up Stott on a nice slider, it lands in Noot’s blue glove, my pregame prediction so far looking in the realm of prescient. Herrera, Walker… same difference. Hopefully no more BABIP issues. Win expectancy of 84% going into the 9th.
9th inning:
Banks, another LHP, is in. Pages grounds out. Walker gives one a ride, but in the end it’s not problem for sexy beast. Vic lifts one into LF for out number three. Let’s hope Helsley can locate tonight. Brewers lost today, Cubs are winning.
Kepler up, pulls 100 mph foul then Helsley makes him look bad with sliders. Tick. Brandon Marsh looks like a Lord of the Rings character, and strikes out looking on a slider. Tock. Turner whiffs and catches Pedro on the backswing. Ouch. Turner runs it full then lines it into RF uh oh… is Walker gonNA KILL VIC nope omg VS2 pulled up and Walker snagged it on the line. For. The. Win.
WHOLE NINE YARDS
VICTORY SONG: “#9 Dream” by John Lennon