Now we stop talking about being 0-7 in series’ finales
Pre-game notes
- Cardinal’s look to end 7 game losing streak in series’ finales, and thus salvaging an otherwise disappointing homestand with a series win. The last time they won a finale, it was Adam Wainwright Guitar Day.
- Early game today, getaway day for the Cardinals, as they travel to New York City, then Detroit.
- This series is a quick rematch against a team they played just last week. The Dbacks have played better and won 3 of 5, so far. Merrill Kelly going down last week didn’t improve their season outlook, though.
- On the medical front, the news isn’t as positive for Matt Carpenter as I’d hoped. He received a pain-killing injection and was shut down for at least 3 days, according to MLB.com. For those of you keeping score at home (is keeping score at home a thing anymore?), I lose a nickel.
- MLB.com reports that Contreras being taken out yesterday was “precautionary”, due to continued hand pain, results from an HBP about 10 days ago.
- Cardinal’s are 0-7 is series’ finales. What’s with that?
- Bafflement is the word for this series. @stlcardsfan4 challenged the team to hit at least one home run in each game of the series and re-discover their lost power. Home runs Monday? Check. Home run Tuesday? Check. So far, so good. We’ll see how it turns out.
Line-up Machinations
- Today features a pitching match-up of Montgomery vs. Gibson. Us old-timers would do a double take at such a pairing. The dead really do rise. My wife asks if we will see the full Monty today. Back to the game…
- Would expect Thompson to be down due to usage today … if not down to Memphis. Roberston down, too. Everyone else should be full go.
- Late breaking news…Thompson and Walker to AAA. King and Fermin back up that should live the offense right up.
- No line-up wrinkles. Contreras DH today.
The Game
T1 – Pavin and Alexand lead off with singles. HBP on Pederson. Christian Walker drives Pavin in with SacFly for an early lead. Suarez GIDP. Boy, some hard hit balls in that inning (and one that definitely was not). Dbacks up 1-0 early.
B1 – Donovan with sharp single. Hardest ball he has hit in a bit. Contreras erases that quickly with GIDP. Arenado out 5-3
T2 – McCarthy sharp single, when Gibson WP him to second. But then Gibson starts to roll a bit, striking out Newman after getting a K on Carroll. Barnhart out 6-3 to end the inning.
B2 – Goldy leads off with sharp double to left (109 mph). Good to see that! His first double of the year. Just in the nick of time. Baffling how long that took. Herrera lines out, then Nootbar and Winn both take multiple strikes, both ending up with backward K’s in a textbook lesson on how NOT to approach an AB with a runner at second.
T3 – Smith F8. Alexander 3u. Pederson out 4-3 as Gibson now sharper.
B3 – Gorman backwards K. Siani out 1-3. Donovan lines out. Monty rolling along.
T4 – Walker sizzles a 100 mph single. Suarez lines out, McCarthy K’s. Carroll walks, putting the runner in scoring position. Another WP advances runners to second and third. By my eye, both WP have found a hole in Herrera’s wicket. He needs to block those. Newman K’s again to quell the uprising.
B4 – Contreras leads off with walk. Arenado pops out. Goldy does, too and Herrera bounces out.
T5 – Barnhart singles and Pavin walks. Is Gibson teetering? His pitch count is OK. Alexander strikes out, Pederson backwards K. Walker out 6-3. Nice recovery there for Gibson. Dbacks still up 1-0. That one run looks like a mountain with this offense.
B5 – Nootbar grounds out. Winns lines out. Gorman pops out. Monty still rolling. Dbacks still winning.
T6 – Suarez grounds out. McCarthy flies out. Carroll K’s. Gibson and Montgomery putting on a clinic.
B6 – Siani out 1-3. He does that a lot. Donovan another well struck ball for a single. Contreras with 110 mph double pushing Donny to 3rd. Arenado singles in Donovan for the game tying RBI. Monty uncorks his own WP, scoring Contreras and advancing Arenado to 2nd. Goldy K’s. Herrera flies out. Cards now up 2-1.
T7 – Romero in for Gibson. His line 6 IP, 1 run, 6K, 2BB, 5 hits. Nice job. Newman out 6-3. Moreno F9. Grichuk walks. I hate walks! This batter even started with a free strike due to delay getting in the box to hit. But Romero gets 6-3 ground out to shut the inning down.
B7 – Nootbar F8. Winn reaches on error. This one may end up being changed to single, as it was a hard hit deflected by SS. Poor throw, but not sure a good one gets Winn. Winn off an running, scores on long single by Gorman. Siani pops out, Donovan dribbles out 2-3. Cards now up 3-1.
T8 – Kittredge in. Pederson greets him with a single, but Walker GIDP erases him. Suarez pops out for a good inning by Kit.
B8 – Jarvis in for Montgomery. Contreras with another hard-hit ball (101) lines out. Arenado walks, Goldy singles to center, Pages walks. Jarvis out, Saalfrank in. Nootbar greets him with a 2-run double. IBB to Winn. Gorman lines 102 laser right to first bases that doubles off Winn. Cards now up 5-1.
T9 – Helsley in for non-save opportunity. McCarthy singles. Carroll K’s. Marte GISP to end the game, but not without a lengthy delay as the Dbacks challenge both calls. Cards win 5-1. Cards win series and even up season series with Dbacks. Maybe we will see them in October.
Post-game Notes (and random musings)
- The Cardinals jet off to take on the Mets and Tigers with another six-day road trip, with an off day after. This is practice for yet another swing to the Pacific time zone on the following road trip.
- Of course, we will catch the Mets just as they have righted the ship and are playing better baseball.
- Speaking of park factors … early 2024 park factors show that, so far, Busch has been a slightly more favorable run environment to hitters. I’m totally curious how baseball’s randomizing feature has evolved to only suppress the Cardinal’s offense.
- Busch still tamps down K’s at 89% of average. I still don’t get how. This is a multi-year trend. A winter research project, for sure.
- Goldy followed his key HR on Monday with another 3 strike out performance last night. As I watch him struggle, I am reminded of Matt Carpenter, circa 2018. That year, he had an OPS+ of 62 through May 1, which is exactly where Goldy sits right now. Then, MCarp did not have an OPS+ below 160 until September. I do note that Goldy is on the EV leaderboard today.
- The game lead-off single by Pavin was 49 mph, with an xOBA of .070. As in, that is almost never a hit! How come the Cardinal’s hitters seem to never have luck like that? I’m doing a research project on that. It turns out they do have that luck, like about 10% of the time just like the rest of the league. But they hardly ever capitalize because as a team, they’ve perfected a combination of poor plate approaches (creates K’s, especially backwards K) and poor launch angles (creates pop outs and weak ground outs), conspiring to create much worse sequencing than average. But not random sequencing. I hope to have this study out this summer.