ST. LOUIS – Half a season down, half a season to go for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Through 81 games, the traditional midpoint of the 162-game schedule, the Cardinals sit at 44-37, currently on pace for 88 wins.
To this point, it’s been enough to keep the Cardinals in the playoff hunt and far from the basement, but not enough to inspire confidence in a Red October just yet. Perhaps that’s the nature of a so-called “reset” or transition season: Some setbacks and some signs of progress, but no guarantees of postseason.
As of Thursday, Baseball-Reference gives the Cardinals a 39.4% chance at postseason and a 9.2% chance of winning the NL Central.
The Cardinals undoubtedly enter the second half of the season in a much-better situation than many teams, but the next half will prove even more critical than the first. If not for postseason chances, then at least for a handful of players whose futures in St. Louis still seem up in the air.
With that in mind, here are five Cardinals worth following closely with the next unofficial half of the 2025 season underway.
Erick Fedde
Acquired just before last year’s trade deadline, Fedde may oddly enough find himself back in trade talks once again. He’s set to become a free agent, and the Cardinals could prioritize more innings for younger arms like Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy down the stretch.
Fedde has taken every turn on regular rest and has pitched at least five innings in all but two stats this season, and his presence has at least offered some consistency in the Cardinals’ starting rotation of recent. However, he hasn’t wo a game since May 9 and has become increasingly reliant on fly ball outs, a sign hitters may be squaring him up more frequently.
Contenders always need depth arms, and Fedde could draw interest. But with the Cardinals somewhat close to “contender” status this season, the front office has a difficult decision to make: To move a rotation mainstay or keep in hopes of a surprise run this fall? Time will tell, but regardless, Fedde’s time with the Cardinals could be numbered.
Ryan Helsley
Helsley has been average or slightly-above average by MLB closer standards this year, but he hasn’t quite reached last year’s level of dominance. He’s already blown five saves (more than four from all of last year) and only eight of his 28 appearances have been clean (no hits or walks allowed).
It’s increasingly clearer this season has been tougher for Helsley than most. Opponents are hitting .261 against him and .338 on balls put in play (both trending toward career-worsts). And according to FanGraphs, his fastball and slider usage are nearly equal this season (46% each), possibly indicating a shift from Helsley’s typical fastball-heavy pitch arsenal.
Despite the odds, Helsley’s 15 saves are tied for 13th across baseball. But heading into the dog days of summer, many questions remain: Can he shoulder every opportunity? Phil Maton and others have chipped in for saves here and there. And as a pending free agent who also dealt with trade talks last offseason, will Helsley’s name resurface again? Whatever happens, the Cardinals have plenty to think about with their bullpen in the long-term and short-term.
Nolan Gorman
It doesn’t feel all too long ago that Gorman was the Cardinals’ top-touted offensive prospect, but now he’s currently in his fourth big-league season with a somewhat murky role. Over the last few weeks, however, a combination of injuries to teammates and matchups have helped Gorman earn more opportunities. And he’s responded with 5 home runs, 12 RBI and a .288 batting average in June.
Gorman was believed to be the leading candidate to take over third base had the Cardinals traded Nolan Arenado in the offseason, but obviously, that didn’t happen. Given that, and Brendan Donovan’s hot start at second base, Gorman found himself squeezed for playing time early. Now, he’s playing his way back into the mix.
What’s next for Nolan Gorman? He must prove he can adapt against lefties (.138 average in 2025) and cut his strikeout rate (33%). And the pressure to succeed isn’t going away anytime soon with natural middle infielders Thomas Saggese and José Fermín recently promoted. If Gorman can’t carve out a regular role down the stretch with prolific production, there may be some growing questions about his long-term fit in St. Louis.
Jordan Walker
Another once-top prospect still finding his footing, Walker begins the second half of the 2025 season on the injured list, his second IL stint this season. Walker has been given ample opportunities to claim an everyday right-fielder spot in each of his first three seasons, and the third time hasn’t exactly been the charm to do so.
Walker is currently hitting just .210 with three home runs and 27 RBI and is striking out nearly once in every three at-bats. While his defense has marginally improved under assistant coach Jon Jay, the offensive breakout that once seemed inevitable still hasn’t arrived in full force.
Walker could possibly return before the mid-July All-Star break, but not without some competition. Utility fielders Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson have seen their outfield opportunities increase just to get their bats into the lineup and create more infield flexibility. The Cardinals would ideally like to see Walker take the next step as a big right-handed bat in lineup crafted with lefties. Upon his return, that leaves the Cardinals to decide how regularly he plays down the stretch and where his bat could best fit in the batting order.
Nolan Arenado
After an offseason filled with trade rumors, Arenado has turned the page and actually came up with some timely moments this season. That includes, but isn’t limited to, two walkoff, series-clinching hits and a game-winning barehanded play against the Cubs under intense pressure just days ago.
Still, Arenado’s .242 batting average leaves a lot left to be desired and could track for a career-low without a summer surge. His 10 home runs and 39 RBI are among team bests, but also down from his peak years with St. Louis and the Colorado Rockies. Arenado, known for his competitive nature, has seem to embraced a team-first role this year, asking to be moved down in the batting order to help other hot hitters and praising the clubhouse energy multiple times in-season, some subtle signs his role on the Cardinals may be changing a little bit as he ages.
For better or for worse, trade buzz around Arenado has been quiet since spring training. He is under contract through the 2027, when he would turn 36. And as the Cardinals seemingly look to build a youth movement, there’s a lot to consider for Arneado. Do the Cardinals feel they can compete now and for however much longer he plays in St. Louis? And could he use a little more rest in the process? Regardless, if Arenado can return closer to vintage form in the second half, it could reaffirm his value to the team and possibly elevate the Cardinals from fringe contenders to postseason threats.
Up Next
The Cardinals started the second 81-game half of their schedule with a 3-0 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Thursday, splitting a four game series.
A big test looms ahead. A nine-game road trip against the Cleveland Guardians and Pittsburgh Pirates, along with a rematch of the Cubs at Wrigley Field through the July 4th weekend.