The St. Louis Cardinals are a winning team in a transition season will they buy or sell?
As of Sunday evening, the St. Louis Cardinals are 7 games over .500, only 2 games back of the division leading Chicago Cubs, and hold the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The 2025 season was supposed to be a season of transition and to gain clarity for the future of the franchise through the play of young players on the roster. Somehow, not only do the Cardinals appear to be one of the better teams in the National League but all the numbers under the hood suggest that this isn’t a fluke or that they’re getting lucky. With a +43 run differential and an expected W/L record of 30-22, the play on the field, and the underlying metrics support what we’re seeing on the field.
This, of course, is a pleasant surprise for some, and one that is causing hand wringing for others who had hopes the Cardinals would sell and dive further into a roster transition that would further highlight young, inexperienced, talent at the big-league level. We know that this is John Mozeliak’s final season in charge, and we know that he ideally would like to step away from the team set up to contend in the near future. Well, the near future has come a lot sooner than pretty much anyone outside of the team had expected.
At the Cardinals annual Winter Warm-Up event that the team holds every January. Every player that took to the stage conveyed their hunger for success and their determination to prove everyone wrong and “shock some folks.” So far, the team is putting their money where their mouth is and not just talking about it but showing us on the field that they’re sincere in that pursuit.
The Cardinals are sitting on a nice stash of veteran pitchers who would certainly be of interest to contending clubs. There is, of course, the Cardinals All Star Closer Ryan Helsley who would generate the largest commotion of any player on the roster given that virtually every contender is always in search of lock down options for the playoffs. Other notable options include starters Erick Fedde, a resurgent Miles Mikolas, and the Swiss army knife Steven Matz who currently has an ERA under 2. Other bullpen options would include JoJo Romero who has closing experience and is creeping closer to free agency and Phil Maton who maintains a K% over 30 and playoff experience of his own right.
The biggest wild card of the group would be staff leader Sonny Gray who has a full no-trade clause and a 35-million-dollar 3rd season remaining on his deal and a subsequent Mutual option for another 30 Million in 2027. So, an acquiring team would be acquiring a playoff starter with years of control remaining. Those typically generate large returns. As always its important to acknowledge Sonny has the right to deny a deal so the Cardinals short term outlook would have to be fairly bleak to convince him to waive his contractual right.
On the position player side, the obvious candidates are a little thin. Nolan Arenado would be one given the nature of his desire to win a World Series. Much like Sonny Gray, the Cardinals would have to be well out of playoff position for him to consider such a move, which he did already back in December killing a deal to Houston, needless to say he is comfortable in St. Louis and only if the Cardinals were in a 2023 type season would he consider waiving his NTC. Would a deal involving more short-term assets make sense such as a Lars Nootbaar or Brendan Donovan? Not if they’re in contention and possibly only to clear the way for 2024 number 7 overall pick JJ Wetherholt. But such a deal might be more likely in the offseason. (I’ll save that topic for an article later in the season)
If the Cardinals continue at their current pace and remain in the playoff race, I do not anticipate the Cardinals saying “screw it” one way or the other. I don’t think they will sell Helsley, regardless, and as some of the more forward-thinking fans would hope for as well. The strategy of having to “get something” for him doesn’t necessarily apply, in my mind, as you can extend a QO to Helsley and if he walks (likely) you obtain a comp pick for him and a top 100 player in the draft isn’t nothing. I would also ask this question; who do you trust more? Mozeliak to obtain a more than reasonable return or Bloom/Flores to draft a young player to grow in your system and become a future factor on the team? Nothing personally against Mo but I think I would opt for the potential for playoffs and give the Bloom/Flores duo more ammunition in the 2026 draft.
To that point, I also don’t think they will throw caution to the wind and use their highest rated prospects to go get real difference maker type talent. That would contradict their stated vision of setting the team up for long term success. However, I do believe there is a worthwhile middle ground that the Cardinals and Mozeliak have done in the past that could be an template as to how they may approach the deadline should things remain on the same trajectory.
I think back to a couple of recent examples of midseason trades that wound up paying dividends for multiple seasons that weren’t all or nothing type shots. Luke Voit for Giovanny Gallegos and Edmundo Sosa for JoJo Romero are two recent examples where the Cardinals delt a surplus position player for a useful reliever with multiple seasons of control remaining. I believe this type of trade would help you in the short term strengthen a volatile area of the team and provide another useful option and would accomplish the long-term goal of not trading away any of your future to satisfy both masters, so to speak.
So, who would you trade? It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Nolan Gorman’s place on this roster is becoming less and less defined and his runway appears to be closing quickly. He does strike me as a player who would benefit from a change of scenery and does have enough raw power potential and positional versatility to garner some interest and retain some value. Also being 25 and having multiple years of control remaining he could be one piece you could consider with Thomas Saggese as a player who could immediately fill in his spot on the roster. Another player you could try to dangle would be Michael Siani. The gold glove potential center fielder is a player profile who always generates interest from playoff teams as they like to have high level defensive replacements to help salt away close games down the stretch and into the playoffs themselves. After Victor Scott II emerged this spring and solidified centerfield for the long term it would appear Siani would have a tough time cracking the big-league roster going forward.
A couple other names to consider would be Cesar Prieto who has an above average hit tool but no real path to a big league role, and Luken Baker, the righty slugger hasn’t been able to fully establish himself at the big league level with the Birds but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t carry some big power potential and a newly refined approach at the plate. A team looking for a stop gap option at 1B/DH might find some value in his bat and giving him some every day at bats to find out what he is on a losing club.
So, who should the Cardinals target? The Baltimore Orioles have underwhelmed, underperformed, underdelivered, not been good this season. Old friend Andrew Kittredge was activated off the IL recently and would represent an upgrade over guys like Chris Roycroft and Matt Svanson. Though the latter has been fairly impressive albeit in small sample size. But, in a playoff push you would ideally lean into pitchers who have more proven track records and success. Kittredge carries a 1 year 9 million dollar price tag that would be pro-rated for the remainder of the season and also holds a club option for 2026 and being a player Chaim Bloom has believed in in the past it likely wouldn’t be a hard sell to get him to sign off on such a deal.
Keegan Akin is another name I’d speculatively target. In 23 appearances so far this season, Akin, has a 3.00 ERA and a 4.08 FIP and while that isn’t all that inspiring, in 2024, he had an xERA of 2.47 and a FIP of 2.99. So, it’s fair to assert that on a more competitive team, with a stronger defense, he would be more likely to yield more effective results. Akin, also has a 26.7 K% in contrast to 31% last season. Also, in 2024 he held batters to a .188 BAA and a 0.94 WHIP. He’s owed a modest 1.475 Million after his 1st year of arbitration and would have another 2 seasons of control for Bloom and would represent an upgrade from the left side over John King who has really struggled this season.
The Cardinals find themselves in an advantageous situation, if not so much, an enviable one for Mo and the rest of the front office. If the unfortunate occurs and the team falls off Mo will have pieces to deal and further usher in a new era of Cardinals baseball. If the team continues to surprise and push towards the playoffs they have some options to get creative to solve some short term needs to give them a shot in the arm and continue down the playoff path that will help keep them on track and set up Chaim Bloom and company to take over coming off a season in which the franchise re-engaged its fan base and insprired optimism that the team is a lot closer than originally thought. See, we CAN talk about Mo and the trade deadline without their being negative undertones to the conversation, take notes Curt.
-Thanks for Reading