Cardinals trade Ryan Helsley for three High A prospects

They also traded Steven Matz for Blaze Jordan

The Cardinals have made a couple of moves and likely have one more in the tank, if not more. In the middle of the day yesterday, the Cardinals traded Ryan Helsley for three prospects in High A who will not need a 40 man spot this upcoming offseason. Later that night, they traded Steven Matz for a near-MLB ready 1B/3B prospect named Blaze Jordan. Let’s get a little more specific.

Ryan Helsley return

Jesus Baez, SS/3B – 20-years-old

5’10, 180 pounds

Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding

Stats (High A): 69 G, 293 PAs, .242/.332/.390, 11 BB%, 16.3 K%, .148 ISO, .261 BABIP, 118 wRC+

Baez was the 15th ranked prospect by Fangraphs, however he ranked as high as 6th by Baseball Prospectus and 9th by Amazin Avenue, the SB Nation site for the Mets. Here’s what AA said about Baez heading into the season:

“The 5’10”, 180-pound Baez does not look like the kind of player that has above-average power, but the infielder gets the most out of his right-handed swing. He stands slightly open at the plate, holding his hands high at eye level and holding his bat parallel to the ground, almost resting it on his shoulders. He has minimal movement during his loading phase, his upper body doing most of the work with an explosive short-levered, rotational swing. In 2024, he averaged a 90.3 MPH exit velocity and registered multiple exit velocity readings over 100 MPH.”

Interestingly, multiple sites reference his overly aggressive approach, which usually seems to result in low walk rates and/or high strikeout rates. But that’s not the case with Baez. He has improved his walk rate from last season (8.8 BB%). Teddy Rugby (in the comments) also always likes to reference DRC+ from BP, and his is virtually identical to his actual wRC+: 117 DRC+.

In summary, an undersized 20-year-old probable future 3B with plus power with great batted ball data. Hard to complain about this one.

Nate Dohm, RHP – 22-years-old

6’4, 210 pounds

Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/50 Command

Stats (Low A): 7 GS, 28.1 IP, 27.9 K%, 8.2 BB%, 43.4 GB%, .351 BABIP, 3.18 ERA/2.62 FIP/3.10 xFIP

High A: 11 G, 34.1 IP, 29.7 K%, 9 BB%, 42.4 GB%, .289 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/3.77 FIP/3.19 xFIP

Dohm may as well have been a 2025 draft pick. He doesn’t throw 100, but he feels very much like 3rd round pick Tanner Franklin. He wasn’t really a starter in college, he’s being eased into something of a starting pitcher role, and he’s a prospect because of his fastball and let’s hope he can pair something with it. Dohm ranked 37th on Fangraphs’ list, but let’s look at a more optimistic source instead, which is BP. They ranked him 16th on the team prospect list:

“A 2024 third-rounder from Mississippi State who could have been as high as a late-first selection if things had broken better for him, Dohm missed a chunk of the college season with a forearm injury. He was another pitch-trait-heavy model-friendly college pitcher. Dohm also throws a flat fastball with carry, that he can sit in the mid-90s with, and he can spot the pitch well. His mid-80s slider is his best offspeed pitch, and he also throws a changeup and a curveball. If he proves healthy in 2025, Dohm is capable of a large jump up this list next year.”

Frank Ellisalt, RHP – 23-years-old

6’2, 210 pounds

Scouting: 55/60 Fastball, 50/60 Slider, 30/4 Change, 30/40 Command

Stats: (Low A): 18 G, 50.2 IP, 28.4 K%, 10.4 BB%, 30.2 GB%, .222 BABIP, 3.02 ERA/3.64 FIP/3.60 xFIP

Ellisalt has also pitched in two games at the High A level. He has faced 21 batters and struck out 8 of them. He also doesn’t have a walk yet. So good start to High A for him. Ellisalt is another “great fastball” prospect. Seems like the Cardinals were as tired of the bad fastball pitching prospect as the fans were, cause they are just stocking up on these great fastball pitchers.

Again does sort of feel like another 2025 draft pick. Is overwhelmingly likely to be put in relief by the time he gets to the majors, but he may very well get a chance to be a proper starter. The Mets were sort of seeing if he could be a starter – his innings to games played ratio is too many innings to not think he was on a starter track. That’s the strategy though, dip your toes in, see how he responds to 2-3 innings and then test him for more innings if he does well there. Baseball Prospectus writer and I think Mets fan tweeted about Ellissalt:

And this is from April this season

Say it with me: arm talent. If nothing else, the Cardinals are working their hardest to have an absolutely stacked bullpen in 2028 if the starting thing doesn’t work out for these guys.

Steven Matz

This one is simpler. It’s just one guy. In return, the Cardinals got Blaze Jordan, who has a very misleading name.

Blaze Jordan, 1B/3B – 22-years-old

6’0, 220 pounds

Scouting: 35/50 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 55/55 Raw Power, 30/30 Speed, 40/45 Field

Stats (AA): 44 G, 176 PAs, .320/.415/.513, 12.5 BB%, 10.8 K%, .193 ISO, .333 BABIP, 168 wRC+

AAA: 43 G, 177 PAs, .289/.333/.476, 6.2 BB%, 10.7 K%, .187 ISO, .298 BABIP, 110 wRC+

Aspiring parents: if you want to name your kid Blaze, it does mean they will be fast. Good information to know. Unfortunately, pay no attention to the walk rate in AA. That is very much a mirage. Given his minor league history, ZiPS projects a 4.4 BB%. As you can see though he makes up for this a bit by not striking out very often. That number is more for real.

Jordan has been around for a while. Drafted in the 2020 draft in the 3rd round, Jordan made his way to AA fairly quickly, but the stats you see above are his third try at AA. Glad it’s not taking him that long to adjust to AAA. Why he was available is very clear: he makes poor swing decisions. He doesn’t have the best Savant numbers. But he is one of those prospects with one easy fix: if he can make even slightly better swing decisions, he might actually hit.

Why the Cardinals got him. Very simple:

He seems like a right-handed Burleson, which hey he does need a platoon partner!

To finish off this post, I kind of teased that I had an actual idea for what to write today, and that it was a good discussion topic. Obviously, making that the whole post was thrown away when the Cardinals made two trades. But here’s what this article would be if we were wondering when the hell the Cardinals were going to start making trades.

The Cardinals should trade Alec Burleson

This is motivated entirely by the vocal part of the fanbase that wants Brendan Donovan traded. To me, Burleson is a much more clear trade target. The problem with Burleson is that his ideal role on the Cardinals is as the strong side of a 1B platoon. The Cardinals cannot provide that for him. Willson Contreras has made it very clear he has no interest in leaving.

Whereas Donovan can play anywhere. And no he’s not too good defensively at 2B to move. He’s been dead average defensively by OAA this season. Donovan is what I would call a high effort defender. You can see how hard he is trying to make a play. I think these kind of players can be overrated if you use the eye test. Think of the inverse: the smoothest defenders make plays look easy that aren’t easy. Anyway, point being that he’s been basically an average defender at the positions he’s played, or close enough to it. Donovan is a great player to have for depth specifically.

Also most fans I think definitely overrate what Donovan would return. This admittedly is mostly a gut feeling. The same reasons you want to trade Donovan… are the same reasons a team won’t give you the asking price you want. Basically, if I’m trading Donovan, I want a haul, and I am skeptical that’s what he’d return.

Back to Burleson, on a team where Contreras is the 1B, Burleson’s best role is the strong side of a DH platoon on the Cardinals. And because the Cardinals have too many DH options, they’re not going to saddle Burleson with the 100-120 starts against RHP as a DH, they’re going to play him way too much in the outfield. You don’t want Burleson in the outfield.

Honestly, if I had to complain about Oliver Marmol, and I don’t want to, because I do want him to stay on as manager, it’s his usage of Burleson. Effectively, I think you have to trade Burleson because he’s being used in the outfield and he’s facing lefties. He should do neither. He is awful against lefties. I know the whole team is bad, but there’s levels here: If you provide no value defensively, and you provide no value offensively, you should not start. That is Burleson against LHP in the outfield.

Burleson has a 68 wRC+ against LHP in 2025 and that managed to improve his career numbers, which sit at 54. I know Burleson won’t return as much as Donovan in a trade, but I mean that logic can be used to the extreme: We can’t trade Donovan because he won’t return as much as Masyn Winn. Like, if one part of your team doesn’t fit your roster, you trade that guy. That’s Burleson. Donovan does fit on the roster, because he can fit on any roster due to his versatility. That’s why I think you trade Burleson, instead of Donovan.

Anyway, doesn’t have to happen today, but I do think it should be an offseason move.