Cardinals season will be decided in this four-game series against the Cubs – A Series

I’m only being slightly hyperbolic

There is going to be a lot of debate in the coming weeks over whether the Cardinals should sell, buy some pieces, stay put, or even the unconventional buy and sell a little. Before the season, it seemed clear they would sell at the deadline, but the season has gone better than most people expected. I don’t have the answer on whether they should sell yet.

My answer and I suspect most people’s answers will be greatly informed by the seven games they play against the Cubs prior to the deadline, beginning with this upcoming four-game series. It is the simplest way to make up ground, but it will not be easy. And lest you think it is delusional to believe they can make up ground, tell that to Cubs manager Craig Counsell.

Allow me to read too much into this quote. I think he believes the Cardinals are a bigger threat to the Cubs than the Brewers. Discuss.

We have strangely not played the Cubs yet, so I guess I have to tell you who they are. If you’re the type of Cardinals fan who watches the Cardinals and not other teams, you might very well not actually know the Cubs as a team. That said, you probably follow the standings a little and if you follow that, you are well aware that the Cubs have a very good offense. They are 3rd in baseball with a 116 wRC+.

They are led by Kyle Tucker, who has a 156 wRC+ on the season. He has more walks than strikeouts, more doubles (16) than homers (15), and more steals than either (18). He’s been caught stealing one time this season. He has a higher xwOBA than actual wOBA. He good. I am also forced to concede Michael Busch is actually good. He has a much less fluky looking line than last year. His xwOBA rose from .319 to .393. Tucker is almost as good against lefties as righties, but Busch has been terrible in his career against lefties (75 wRC+), so hopefully Steven Matz, JoJo Romero and John King bring their A game.

Another left-handed hitter who struggles mightily against lefties is Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cardinals have to be at least a little bit tempted to just give Matz a start honestly. Two of the three best hitters in their lineup have been straight up bad hitters against left-handed pitchers.

But well, then you get Seiya Suzuki who has been much better against LHP in his career, only even more extreme this season. He has been dead average against RHP this season. Or Carson Kelly, who actually has been better against RHP this season, but for his career, has a 78 wRC against RHP. And after a hot start, he had a 79 wRC+ in May and 20 wRC+ in June. To say he’s come back to earth is an understatement.

Don’t worry though, they are receiving absurd performances from their other catchers. Reese McGuire, of the career 81 wRC+, has a 143 wRC+ with 4 homers in 12 games. At least Miguel Amaya, currently injured, is young, but he has a 127 wRC+ (.315 xwOBA). As far as the rest of the offense, Ian Happ (116 wRC+, Dansby Swanson (100), and Nico Hoerner (94) are around their career ranges. Matt Shaw has been a disappointment with a 77 wRC+, Justin Turner has looked like a 40-year-old (62 wRC+), and they’ve received almost nothing from their bench.

Since the Cardinals defense is so important to their success, it would be criminal to not mention the Cubs’ defense. On the whole they have a good defense, but it’s pretty much just PCA and Hoerner. PCA is +10 OAA at CF and Hoerner is +8 at 2B and nobody else has been better than +2 at their position. Swanson is probably still an elite fielder, but is only +2 OAA so far in 672 innings. Happ (LF), Busch (1B), and Shaw (3B) are all -2 OAA at their positions and Tucker (RF) has been -3 OAA in the outfield. The catchers, at least with how they’ve played and with the stats we have, have been average defensively.

Bullpen-wise, the Cubs have a marginally above average bullpen. They are 8th in team ERA, 10th in FIP, and 22nd in team xFIP. They have the third lowest HR/FB% of any bullpen in baseball. Not automatically luck, but just based on this alone, I would say they are probably closer to an average bullpen.

Ryan Pressly entered the season as the planned closer, but he’s been very mediocre. He in fact blew a save in his most recent appearance, though it was for a hold, not a save. 25-year-old Daniel Palencia appears to be the favored closer now, with a team-leading 7 saves and in the most recent save situation, he was chosen. He has a 1.93 ERA, but the advanced stats are more second tier closer than elite. (2.92 xERA, 2.92 FIP, 3.41 xFIP)

They have two lefties in their bullpen who pretty much epitomize the Cubs disparity in ERA and advanced stats. Drew Pomeranz has literally not allowed a run in 19 innings, but he has a 2.51 FIP and 4.15 xFIP. His career HR/FB% is 12.7%, so he hasn’t been a guy who’s been able to outperform his xFIP. What I’m saying he is very due to allow a homer. Thielbar isn’t that extreme, but he has a 2.20 ERA, 2.86 FIP and 4.30 xFIP. He has shown more of a talent in flyballs not leaving the park, but still his 7.9 HR/FB% for his career suggests he is also due to allow homers.

Converted starter Brad Keller has probably been the Cubs best reliever on the back of a 25.2% K rate and 63 GB%. You may think he’d be more of a multi-inning reliever than he actually is, with just 7 of his 33 appearances lasting more than one inning. Also a converted starter is Chris Flexen who allowed his first two runs yesterday and is being used like a long reliever. Again, despite the 0.78 ERA, his advanced stats are not that great. It would be a very good idea for the Cardinals to help the Cubs bullpen regress this series I think.

Monday – 6:45 PM

Ben Brown (5.57 ERA/3.44 FIP/3.47 xFIP) vs. Matthew Liberatore (4.08 ERA/3.04 FIP/3.61 xFIP)

Is it weird that I’d almost prefer if Ben Brown had a 3.50 ERA? I do not like facing starters with ugly ERAs but great advanced stats. One for the obvious reason: they are likely a good starter and the Cardinals will have trouble with him. The other because if the Cardinals do get shut down by him, the fanbase will be insufferable about it. And this is idiotic but from a luck perspective, I always feel like they have better odds if he had a 3.50 ERA. Which can’t be true. If Cards get shut down by Brown though, don’t be surprised.

On the flip side, this is not the worst matchup for Liberatore. Tucker has been almost as good against LHP in his career, but he has still been worse. So has Happ, Busch, and PCA. That’s a lot of their lineup. They aren’t all guaranteed to start tomorrow, but even better. That means Liberatore faces worse hitters. Anyway, this is not a mismatch at all despite the ERA difference.

Tuesday – 6:45 PM

Jameson Taillon (3.84 ERA/4.81 FIP/4.04 xFIP) vs. Michael McGreevy (2.70 ERA/2.58 FIP/3.39 xFIP)*

According to Katie Woo, the Cardinals are likely to call up Michael McGreevy to start Tuesday’s game. So I’m listing him here. Roster Resource has him pitching Wednesday for some reason, and ESPN doesn’t list him at all. I’m following Katie’s lead on this one. Is there better evidence that the Cardinals view McGreevy as one of the five best starters than giving him this start against the Cubs? I know it’s also for rest-related reasons but as important as these games are, wouldn’t they just go five-man if they thought he was a 6th starter or worse?

Signed to a four-year deal, Taillon was not very good in his first season as a Cub and to his credit, he’s been much better in the two seasons that followed. Better than I would have guessed after the first year of his contract. Cardinals faced Taillon four times last year, and he allowed 3, 3, 2, and 1 runs. He threw at least 5.2 innings in all four, though he never made it past the 6th. Pretty consistent.

Wednesday – 6:45 PM

Matthew Boyd (2.84 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.96 xFIP) vs Erick Fedde (3.54 ERA/4.04 FIP/4.91 xFIP)

I think of Monday and Tuesday, at least from a pitching matchup perspective, as close to 50/50 games. I wish I could say the same about this game. I know Fedde’s ERA is good, but I just feel like against an offense like the Cubs, the thing he does where he walks a bit too many and doesn’t strike anyone out, it’s not going to work. That said, he did do it successfully against the Dodgers (4 BBs, 2 Ks and zero runs allowed), so anything’s possible.

Boyd has been excellent and that’s not a huge shock. He made 8 great starts last year. His problem has been injuries. Which coincidentally was why he left his last start on Friday. It was a left shoulder bruise from catching a 100+ mph hit right back at him. News came back good and he’s starting Wednesday, but it is possible it will affect his pitching. Worth noting.

Thursday: 1:15 PM

Shota Imanaga (2.82 ERA/4.52 FIP/4.81 xFIP) vs. Andre Pallante (4.48 ERA/4.41 FIP/3.55 xFIP)

For this one, I’m trusting Roster Resource, but it is entirely possible Imanaga starts on a different day. The latest news update said Imanaga was making his next start “sometime next week.” His last start was on Friday, which means he might also start Wednesday. But you can see why Roster Resource thinks they’ll give him an extra day. Imanaga threw 72 pitches on Friday, so it is somewhat likely he’s on some sort of pitch count, probably less than 90 pitches.

I mentioned that McGreevy pitching is proof that the Cardinals think he’s one of the best starters. As a counterargument, they clearly believe Sonny Gray is one of their five best and the sixth starter thing pushes him out of this series and into a road game. But if Pallante does indeed start, he’s best against lefties, and all the Cubs best hitters are lefties. There’s no way they think Pallante is better than the Gray even in this circumstance, but they may see an advantage in being able to utilize Pallante against a lineup that will have at minimum four lefties and five if McGuire starts. And none of the righties are that fearsome except for Suzuki, but he’s an only okay hitter against righties.

Bottoms up, this is effectively the season, which is an absurd thing to say about a June series, but it has a very outsized impact on what the Cardinals might do at the deadline.