Two lefties and Aaron Nola… and Nola is probably the worst pitcher of the three.
The last time the Cardinals faced the Phillies, they were in a bad spot. They were only 5-7, so the record wasn’t too bad, but they had just lost the previous three series to the Pirates, Red Sox, and Angels, which included four extra inning losses. They were set to face Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez, and Zack Wheeler. Throwing for the Cardinals were Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, and Matthew Liberatore – if you can insert yourself back then, Pallante was actually the best chance to win; Liberatore had allowed 8 earned runs in his first two starts even if his K/BB numbers were strong. It was not ideal.
Then they won 2 out of 3. The Cardinals are in a completely different situation this time around. It’s far too early to tell, but sweeping the Nationals in DC makes one think the early road woes were a weird fluky thing instead of something to expect. So it doesn’t feel quite as helpless to be in Philly. Oh yeah and the Cardinals are on an 8-game winning streak.
Here’s something I at least find unusual. The Cardinals played like a good team, but the record didn’t reflect it until this winning streak. In this winning streak, they have won three games by one run, one by two runs, and one by three runs, with the other three wins being blowouts. Usually during a lengthy winning streak, one finds one’s pythag record eventually trending below the actual record because of all the close games. But the Cardinals pythag is still one win above their actual record. And their BaseRuns suggests they should be 24-16. Let’s keep winning and getting closer to these numbers.
Overview
The Phillies currently reside in 2nd place in the NL East behind the New York Mets. They are 24-16, although have been fortunate with a 7-2 record in one-run games. They actually have a (slightly) worse run differential than the Cardinals. In theory, based purely on record, these two teams are more evenly matched than you might think based on your preconceived notions.
The Phillies have also been blessed with remarkable health. Ranger Suarez, who we miss in this series, began the year injured and has since made two starts. Brandon Marsh, who has been terrible, was on the injured list somewhat recently for about two weeks. Both players are healthy right now. They have one player on the MLB IL, Jose Ruiz, who is kind of a forgettable middle reliever. This is somewhat similar to the Cardinals, although obviously Ivan Herrera did miss most of April and is restricted to DH.
Offense
To keep up the parallels, the Phillies and Cardinals have the same exact wRC+ on the season, at 108. They are led by Kyle Schwarber, who has a ridiculous 173 wRC+ on the season. His strikeout rate, normally close to 30%, is now down to 20%. Trea Turner is doing Trea Turner things as the next best hitter in their everyday lineup. Bryce Harper has been relatively disappointing with a 118 wRC+, but that’s a matter of expectations more than performance.
Max Kepler has been Max Kepler, perfectly cromulent but nothing exciting. At least offensively, same for Bryson Stott. Johan Rojas was a horrendous hitter last year and is close to faking being a decent hitter this year, though his 97 wRC+ comes with a .392 BABIP. Similarly, old friend Edmundo Sosa has a 125 wRC+, but it comes with a .429 BABIP. JT Realmuto’s bat has continued his steady decline, with a hitting line below average. Marsh has been terrible, as mentioned above. Alec Bohm has also been terrible.
Philly, as you soon will see, has better pitchers than the Cardinals, so how can the teams be virtually equal? Well, there’s a very big gap in defense between the two teams. The Cardinals actually have almost two and half more wins on the position player side than the Phillies even though they have equal offense. According to Fangraphs, the Cardinals have the best defense in baseball and the Phillies have the 28th best defense in baseball, at 15 runs below average.
Bullpen
Another weird parallel the Phillies have to the Cardinals is they have both a previously unreliable, injury-bitten starter on a guaranteed contract who is in the bullpen AND a top prospect they haven’t been able to promote because they have too much starting pitching depth. In the case of the former, it’s Taijuan Walker, who lost his spot to Suarez. He has made only one appearance in the bullpen so far, which was a 45-pitch save on Wednesday. In the case of the latter, Andrew Painter hadn’t pitched in three years before this season, so they’re giving him the slow roll treatment.
As for the rest of the bullpen, Jose Alvarado has been unbelievable, although weirdly has a .367 BABIP against. They signed Jordan Romano to close games, but he’s been horrendous this year and probably won’t even get a high leverage inning in this series. They have another tough lefty in Matt Strahm. The Phillies have a third lefty who is pretty tough to hit.
And… none of the right-handed members of the Phillies bullpen have been good. They have three difficult lefties and very hittable righties. Orion Kerkering hasn’t been very good with a 13 BB%. Joe Ross – yes that Joe Ross, he’s still around – has a 16.9 K%. Carlos Hernandez has a 5.94 xFIP. And then there’s Romano. It’s pretty clear what the Phillies plan has been – hope the starters go long enough so they can lean on the lefties (and maybe now, Walker).
Monday – 5:45 PM
Matthew Liberatore (3.07 ERA/2.34 FIP/3.02 xFIP) vs. Christopher Sanchez (2.89 ERA/3.52 FIP/3.04 xFIP)
This is a fun matchup. We already know Sanchez can pitch well, although interestingly, the Cardinals only struck out three times and he allowed eight hits. So somewhat weirdly, depending on your rooting interesting, you can use the previous matchup to justify that your guy will do better. Sanchez did only allow one earned run across 6.1 IP, but he almost certainly should have given up more than one run. I believe that was the double play game.
The Phillies as a team do not appear to have strong splits as an offense. They have a 110 wRC+ against LHP. But their ostensible two best hitters, Schwarber and Harper, are both left-handed. Kepler will also likely sit in favor of Weston Wilson, who has only came to the plate 10 times, but has homered already. We do know Liberatore can stymy the Phillies’ offense based on his last start.
Tuesday – 5:45 PM
Sonny Gray (3.50 ERA/3.62 FIP/3.46 xFIP) vs. Jesus Luzardo (2.11 ERA/2.33 FIP/3.25 xFIP)
I’ll give the Phillies this. Starting pitching was not their weakness last season, and yet they took advantage of an injury-filled down year from Luzardo to trade for him. They did give up a current top 100 prospect and 40 future value prospect. But still. Bargain. Luzardo is the pitcher we see instead of Wheeler and it’s not much of a relief.
I do wish I was slightly more confident in Gray, but pitching in Citizens Bank Park against a bunch of sluggers does sort of remind me of how many home runs he gave up on the road last season. And it is much easier to give up home runs at CBP than most places.
Wednesday – 12:05 PM
Erick Fedde (3.86 ERA/4.13 FIP/5.02 xFIP) vs. Aaron Nola (4.89 ERA/4.38 FIP/3.47 xFIP)
I know there’s nothing you can do about this, but I really don’t like the Wednesday day game followed by an off-day. I’ll be at work this day and may catch the tail end of the game, but I’ll also be working Friday night, so I’m going to go three days without seeing a game live (I may watch it later on MLB TV).
Anyway, interesting matchup here. Fedde, you did well against a weaker offense whose weaknesses seemed tailored to your strengths. Now here’s a real offense. In a tough park. Good luck. Meanwhile Nola is very close to being the 5th starter on this team – it’s a ridiculous starting 5. And he’s extremely homer-prone – which is a career thing since he has a career 14 HR/FB% and it was 15.6% the last two seasons.