Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley is making an early case for an All-Star bid through the first month of the MLB season. Helsley is a league leader in the traditional statistical metrics. He’s second in the MLB and tied for first in the National League in saves with 7 so far. He has a 2.45 ERA, a Whip of .91, and 12 strikeouts in 11 innings. He’s been a vital part of the equation when the Cardinals offense scores enough to have a chance at winning the game.
“You look at every game we’ve won he’s pitched,” said Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol after the Cardinals 3-2 win over the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday. “We talk about availability, he’s been available, so I think it’s worked out really well.”
Marmol on the #STLCards manufacturing runs with small ball on the day that baseball and Cardinal Nation mourn the loss of Whitey Herzog: “I’d be lying if I said I didn’t think about it. … Overall it was a well-played game.” pic.twitter.com/Qm3Fx7bOrz
— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) April 17, 2024
Helsley picked up the loss without allowing an earned run on Friday’s matchup against the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers. The closer came in during the 10th inning after the Cardinals tied the game at 1-1 after a bases-loaded walk in the bottom of the 9th. A slow grounder to William Contreras that found a hole with two outs brought in the automatic extra-inning baserunner. The hit to the younger Contreras was the first one Helsley had allowed in five games.
“I’m feeling pretty good,” Helsley told Bally Sports Midwest before Friday’s game. “Just trying to roll with the momentum and keep it going as long as I can.”
Advanced Stats Say Helsley Results Have Come Short Of How He Is Performing
Even being a league-leading closer, the advanced stats tell a better story of Helsley’s season. According to Baseball Savant, Helsley is in the top 1% of the league in expected ERA and fastball velocity. Helsley is in the top 3% of the league in expected batting average against.
In every critical pitching stat, the expected metric Helsley is producing is lower than the actual result. His ERA is .245, but his expected ERA is .87. Helsley’s batting average against him is .220, but his expected batting average is .140. Batters are slugging .317 against him, but the expected slugging percentage is .197. These numbers are all according to Baseball Savant, which tracks advanced stats of players in the MLB.
The Fastball has been Helsley’s most devastating pitch this season. Not only is it one of the league-best average velocities, at 98.9 MPH, but it has 9.7 inches of drop. That drop to a fastball is 17% better than the league average and puts Helsley in the top 3% of the league for fastball movement.
Helsley is also forcing swings where there shouldn’t be more than average. According to Baseball Savant, he’s in the top 2% of the league in chase rate and the top 9% of whiff rate.
This is to say that Helsley’s hot start to the season is no fluke. The closer appears to be pitching as good as he has in his six seasons in the MLB. His results may only be limited by how often the lineup can put up enough runs to give Helsley a chance to save the game.
A More Defined Roll Leads To Higher Comfort
The Cardinals went into the season planting their flag in Helsley as the team’s 9th-inning guy. Previously, Helsley had come in during high-leverage situations during the game, sometimes pitching more than an inning, less often pitching under a full inning. This year, all of Helsley’s appearances have come in the 9th inning or after, and he has pitched exactly one inning each time. That consistency has contributed to Helsley’s comfort.
“It’s been great, focus on one thing,” Helsley told Bally Sports Midwest Friday. “It’ll surely help, you know with everybody in the bullpen it helps to know what your roll is. Like anything in life, the more prepared you are you know what you’re going to do and what’s asked of you it’s easier to prepare for that role.”
Ryan Helsley tells @TheCatOnBallyTV about the vibes in the #STLCards‘ bullpen: “It’s great. We’ve got a lot of guys out there with a lot of experience and some young guys too. It’s a good mix. It’s just fun.” pic.twitter.com/1odJpoMrNI
— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) April 20, 2024
Main Photo Credits: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
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