Gray and Nootbaar will be out to start the season.
News broke on Friday that the Cardinals’ priced pitching acquisition this winter will officially start the season on the IL as he rehabs his injured hamstring. Joining him will be starting left fielder Lars Nootbaar.
Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said Sonny Gray will start the season on the IL. Zack Thompson will make the club and start in the rotation. Matthew Liberatore will also make the club and be in the bullpen. Lars Nootbaar also set to start the season on the IL. #STLCards
— Lynn Worthy (@LWorthySports) March 22, 2024
Zack Thompson will take Gray’s spot in the rotation and Matthew Liberatore will make the club and work out of the bullpen.
Here is Liberatore’s reaction to the news:
Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore got good news today. I asked him about his reaction to him and Zack Thompson making the club. #STLCards pic.twitter.com/lURwnkLMf5
— Lynn Worthy (@LWorthySports) March 22, 2024
There were scenarios where Gray would have avoided the IL, likely working his way up to full form in an opener role. While he is progressing rapidly, he simply has not built up the work this Spring to justify such an aggressive plan.
#STLCards RJP Sonny Gray: “They gave me some scenarios. … There were ways to not do the IL.
“But it was ultimately my decision to say, I think it’s right if we do the IL thing, … I’ve felt good … but it was just a matter of getting to a game.”https://t.co/MHvBYulRXm
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) March 23, 2024
Continuing to rehab and finishing out his Spring, in the end, was Gray’s decision. It’s also likely the safest plan.
When can Gray return? MLB.com’s John Denton notes that the schedule allows Gray to backdate his IL stint 3 days.
#STLCards RHP Sonny Gray will start on the 15-day IL and it can be backdated three days. Gray thinks his first start for the Cards will be “10 to 11 games” into the season. If all goes well, his first start for STL could come vs. the #Phillies at Busch Stadium (April 8-10).
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) March 22, 2024
The Cardinals begin the season with four games at the Dodgers and three games against the Padres. They have a quick turnaround on April 4th with a 3:15 pm start for their home opener against the Marlins. April 5th is a day off to ensure the Cardinals get their home opening festivities in. Then it’s two more against the Marlins and three against the Phillies.
Obviously, Denton has already done the math for us, but the most likely scenario is that Gray starts sometime during the home series against the Phillies.
I would guess first two wees of the season would shake out as follows:
Game 1 @ Dodgers – Mikolas
Game 2 @ Dodgers – Gibson
Game 3 @ Dodgers – Lynn
Game 4 @ Dodgers – Matz
Game 5 @ Padres – Thompson
Game 6 @ Padres – Mikolas
Game 7 @ Padres – Gibson
Game 8 Marlins – Lynn
Day off
Game 9 Marlins – Matz
Game 10 Marlins – Thompson
Game 11 Phillies – Gray
Such a scenario allows Gray to slide back into the #1 rotation spot. That’s not significant but it makes the counting easy. It also allows Mikolas to slide back, giving him and everyone else in the order 6 days between starts. After a tough opening travel schedule, that seems ideal and likely eliminates the need for a sixth starter after Gray’s return.
It also makes sense by both the rotation order and fan service to let Lynn have the Home Opener.
What does the Gray and Nootbaar news mean for the roster?
I updated my roster spreadsheet in light of this news:
In many ways, the Gray decision simplifies things. Now there’s no debate over Fernandez. He can make the club and there’s still space for Riley O’Brien. When Gray comes back, the Cardinals will have to send someone out. The logical choice would be Thompson, who would head to Memphis to remain stretched out as a starter.
I don’t think that’s what will happen, though. I think the Cardinals will want to keep Thompson up as a long reliever behind Gray, who likely won’t be ready for 5-7 inning outings that soon in his recovery. Most likely whoever still has options and has had the most recent work from the bullpen will get sent out for a few weeks while Gray builds stamina. Or they could just send Liberatore down. Letting him start in Memphis would allow him to maintain the stamina he has built while starting this Spring. They wouldn’t have to do this with Thompson still on the roster and available for starts if someone gets hurt, but it’s a possibility.
The news about Nootbaar does not change anything on the offensives side of the roster, since I already projected Noot to start the season on the IL. Siani stays. Carlson starts. Scott goes to Memphis to prove he belongs in the Majors.
There you go! Another chance to debate Scott, Siani, and Carlson. You’re welcome, Cardinals fans.
Happy Saturday, Viva El Birdos!