More bad news than you’d like though there are some surprises
Last week, I took a look at the progress of the hitters in the minor league system. One week later, let’s take a look at the pitchers.
Memphis
Quinn Mathews, 24 – LHP (VEB #2 prospect)
Currently injured. Believe me, you don’t want me to share his stats.
Michael McGreevy, 24 – RHP (VEB #6 prospect)
AAA Stats: 6 GS, 28.2 IP, 21.6 K%, 6 BB%, 51.8 GB%, .325 BABIP, 4.08 ERA/4.31 FIP/3.71 xFIP
How do these stats compare to last season? Well they’re slightly better. He’s walking less and getting more groundballs. Strikeouts haven’t changed. He’s MLB ready, no doubt about it.
Sem Robberse, 23 – RHP (VEB #13 prospect)
Currently injured. Believe me, you don’t want me to share his stats. Okay his ERA is ugly, but it’s not that bad aside from that. I just wanted to commit to the bit.
Ian Bedell, 25 – RHP
Stats: 7 GS, 26.2 IP, 22.4 K%, 10.4 BB%, 37.3 GB%, .329 BABIP, 7.43 ERA/6.39 FIP/4.88 xFIP
Lucky is probably not the right word. The Cardinals probably give Bedell more than seven starts regardless. But if the Cardinals had ever considered moving Bedell off starting, the depletion of the AAA pitching staff is going to keep him getting starting chances for a while. In his most recent start, he struck out 8 and walked just 2 in 4.2 IP of one run ball. Hopefully, he has turned a corner.
Drew Rom, 25 – LHP
He’s technically pitching in Low A right now for rehab appearances, but he obviously belongs in this section. He has faced 18 batters in Low A and struck out 8 of them in two appearances, the most recent being 3 innings. He has only allowed two hits, and 2⁄3 of the balls hit against him are on the ground.
Ryan Fernandez, 27 – RHP
AAA: 4 G, 4 IP, 28.6 K%, 28.6 BB%, 12.5 GB%, .375 BABIP, 4.50 ERA/5.76 FIP/6.94 xFIP
Fernandez walked three in his most recent appearance. He’s not fixed yet. We won’t be seeing him again for a little while.
Andre Granillo, 25 – RHP
AAA: 9 G, 14.2 IP, 37.1 K%, 6.5 BB%, 33.3 GB%, .333 BABIP, 1.84 ERA/2.28 FIP/2.58 xFIP
Since I last gave the update on Granillo, he has kept it up. He has struck out 7 guys to just one walk in 4.2 IP of work. The Cardinals have to be thinking about promoting him soon.
Nick Anderson, 34 – RHP
AAA: 15.2 IP, 18.9 K%, 8.1 BB%, 34.7 GB%, .333 BABIP, 6.32 ERA/4.80 FIP/5.30 xFIP
Anderson pitched in yesterday’s game, which means the FIP and xFIP are not updated, every other stat however is. Cardinals took a flyer on a previously great, oft-injured relief pitcher. I’m going to call it now. It didn’t work out. It’s fine. It’s called a flyer for a reason.
Since the last time we saw Roddery Munoz, he has not actually pitched until last night’s game in Memphis. He threw a scoreless inning with a walk and a strikeout.
Matt Svanson has pitched twice since he was sent down. He threw 1.2 innings on May 4th, striking out 3 with no walks and two hits allowed. And then yesterday when he struck out two, but also walked two while giving up 3 runs in an inning of work. You know I actually appreciate 5 strikeouts to 16 batters faced since he was sent down given my lack of belief in him is mostly strikeout-related. Weird thing to say when he gives up 3 runs in his 2.2 IP of work admittedly.
Springfield
Tink Hence, 22 – RHP (VEB’s #3 prospect)
Tink Hence is currently injured. He has not compiled any stats, so I can’t keep this bit going.
Cooper Hjerpe, 24 – LHP (VEB’s #9 prospect)
Cooper Hjerpe is currently injured. This is kind of less fun than the hitter section.
Tekoah Roby, 23 – RHP (VEB’s #10 prospect)
AA: 5 GS, 20.1 IP, 24.1 K%, 10.1 BB%, 36.5 GB%, .220 BABIP, 2.66 ERA/4.06 FIP/4.15 xFIP
These are decent stats and the important thing is that he’s healthy, but these are less exciting than I remember when I last looked at his stats. And sure enough his last two starts weren’t great. He allowed four runs in his last one, and he did actually throw 5 scoreless innings in the start before, though he walked three and struck out only two. Hopefully, his next start is back on track.
Max Rajcic, 23 – RHP (VEB’s #20 prospect)
AA: 5 GS, 21 IP, 15.2 K%, 11.1 BB%, 46.5 GB%, .309 BABIP, 6.86 ERA/5.76 FIP/5.03 xFIP
Optimistically speaking, I’m hoping the Cardinals are telling Rajcic to work on something to the detriment of his stats. This is kind of how it usually goes, but 7 of his 11 walks and 12 of his 16 earned were in two of his starts. He was good in his other three. But you need a better ratio than that for his stats to look good.
Ixan Henderson, 23 – LHP
AA: 5 GS, 25.1 IP, 31.1 K%, 5.8 BB%, 34.4 GB%, 2.13 ERA/1.92 FIP/3.50 xFIP
Here’s how good Henderson has been: his stats are better than I’m showing you. He pitched yesterday. I am easily able to update K%, BB%, ERA, but FIP and xFIP not so much. He struck out 8, walked nobody, and allowed zero runs yesterday. We’re entering into “so when he is getting called up to Memphis territory?” This is fun again!
Brycen Mautz, 23 – LHP
AA: 5 GS, 20 IP, 28.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 38 GB%, .271 BABIP, 4.05 ERA/4.17 FIP/3.26 xFIP
Okay okay okay. I frontloaded the bad pitching news, because this is a very positive development. Mautz has struck out quite a bit more hitters than he did in High A (23.8%), walked the exact same amount, and gotten roughly the same number of groundballs. You don’t usually see pitchers improve when they advance a level. Let’s hope he keeps it up.
Pete Hansen, 24 – LHP
AA: 5 GS, 22 IP, 22.4 K%, 10.2 BB%, 46 GB%, .242 BABIP, 2.45 ERA/4.75 FIP/4.17 xFIP
Weird comment for the Hansen section, since I wouldn’t promote him, but I would appreciate the Cardinals spreading the love a little and give one of these guys to Memphis. There are five actual pitching prospects – Hansen lowest on the totem pole – in Springfield. Anyway, Hansen is neither exciting nor discouraging.
Austin Love, 26 – RHP
AA: 8 G, 10 IP, 25 K%, 18.2 BB%, 60.9 GB%, .160 BABIP, 3.60 ERA/3.92 FIP/4.69 xFIP
Do you guys remember Austin Love? Probably not. Love was a 3rd round draft pick back in 2021. He was considered an actual prospect at one point – Fangraphs had him 12th before 2023 and 19th before 2024. He made it to High A, posted high K numbers, but gave up lots of runs. And then he got hurt two games into the 2023 season, and missed all of last year. So he’s back, but in relief. Control is spotty, as one might expect, but in a very strange way, he’s been a solid reliever. His age probably means he’s done starting games.
Luis Gastelum, 23 – RHP
AA: 9 G, 10.1 IP, 32.1 K%, 7.5 BB%, 50 GB%, .517 BABIP, 9.58 ERA/3.18 FIP/2.60 xFIP
What an absolutely bizarre line. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a BABIP like that over 10 innings into the season, nor an ERA that high with objectively good FIP and xFIPs, especially at Springfield. Yesterday, he blew a save, giving up three hits to all three batters he faced. I have no idea what to make of this line to be honest.
Osvaldo Berrios, 25 – RHP
AA: 8 G, 13.1 IP, 29.8 K%, 5.3 BB%, 41.2 GB%, .306 BABIP, 2.70 ERA/2.57 FIP/2.95 xFIP
The AA bullpen is a barren wasteland of people hitting their wall. And then there’s this guy. The Cardinals signed him out of Indy ball in the middle of last season, put him in the High A bullpen and he pitched really well. So far, so good with a promotion to Springfield. This is how the Cardinals got Chris Roycroft. You never know.
Peoria
Darlin Saladin, 22 – RHP (VEB’s #16 prospect)
A+: 5 GS, 17.1 IP, 18.8 K%, 15.3 BB%, 49.1 GB%, .396 BABIP, 6.23 ERA/5.59 FIP/4.79 xFIP
As a guy who even after last season was not necessarily shooting up prospect lists, I must again ask if he is perhaps working on things at a level he already succeeded at. I mean he struck out 28% of batters at this same level over 12 appearances last season and now he is completely overmatched?
Zack Showalter, 21 – RHP (VEB’s #17 prospect)
A+: 4 G, 7.2 IP, 32.4 K%, 24.3 BB%, 21.4 GB%, .200 BABIP, 3.25 ERA/4.29 FIP/5.64 xFIP
Showalter is not hurt, though he hasn’t pitched since April 24th. He has been put on the Development List. For both innings management and presumably working on improving his control. He threw 34 innings last season, so I imagine they would aim towards at least 50 this season.
Hansel Rincon, 23 – RHP
A+: 5 G, 21.1 IP, 26.4 K%, 10.3 BB%, 37.3 GB%, .216 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/3.65 FIP/4.23 xFIP
I’m listing him less because he’s a prospect and more because of noticeable improvements from last season. He’s striking out a lot more (just 18.8% of hitters last year) while also getting more groundballs (32.7% last year)
Juan Salas, 22 – RHP
A+: 6 GS, 21.2 IP, 18 K%, 9 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .328 BABIP, 8.31 ERA/6.23 FIP/4.58 xFIP
He hasn’t been as bad as his ERA would indicate. So he’s got that going for him. A little homer prone too.
Michael Watson, 23 – LHP
Low A: 4 G, 7.1 IP, 33.3 K%, 13.3 BB%, 60 GB%, .400 BABIP, 8.59 ERA/3.06 FIP/3.80 xFIP
High A: 5 G, 7.1 IP, 36.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 61.5 GB%, .143 BABIP, 0.00 ERA/2.56 FIP/3.20 xFIP
I’m assuming Watson was just a roster crunch and as soon as someone got hurt, they planned to move him to High A. He had a 47.1 K% in Low A last season. He went undrafted and played in college summer ball, striking out 27 of 56 batters and didn’t allow an earned run.
Palm Beach
Chen-Wei Lin, 23 – RHP (VEB’s #11 prospect)
I could have put Lin in the above section, but he hasn’t actually pitched at High A yet. He did make his first appearance of the year in rehab for Palm Beach, throwing 2 innings with four strikeouts to the six batters he faced. He walked another guy. So one ball went in play in his outing, which was a double play.
Braden Davis, 22 – LHP
A: 6 G, 23.1 IP, 29.7 K%, 20.8 BB%, 60.4 GB%, .311 BABIP, 4.24 ERA/6.23 FIP/4.32 xFIP
Not much has changed since we last visited him. Still struggling with walks and homers. The strikeouts and groundballs are very good though.
Leonel Sequera, 19 – RHP
A: 6 GS, 26.1 IP, 24.3 K%, 5.8 BB%, 42.4 GB%, .269 BABIP, 2.39 ERA/3.10 FIP/4.00 xFIP
Here’s something you don’t see very often. Sequera, so far, has improved his K rate and lowered his BB rate… and because his GB rate was 62.5%, his xFIP hasn’t really changed. Still, he was going to need to strike out more than 16.2% of hitters, so this is progress.
Nolan Sparks, 22 – RHP
A: 6 G, 21.1 IP, 25.5 K%, 11.7 BB%, 54.2 GB%, .322 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/3.14 FIP/3.79 xFIP
Sparks is being limited to about 15 batters per game, but he’s… kind of starting? He’s done reasonably well too, especially for a 13th round pick.
Jack Findlay, 22 – LHP
A: 8 G, 10 IP, 26.9 K%, 28.8 BB%, 31.8 GB%, .318 BABIP, 9.00 ERA/5.74 FIP/6.50 xFIP
The 8th rounder cannot find his control right now. He is returning from Tommy John surgery so patience may be required.
Brandt Thompson, 22 – RHP (17th round, 2024)
A: 5 GS, 22.1 IP, 23.3 K%, 2.2 BB%, 37.9 GB%, .333 BABIP, 1.61 ERA/2.71 FIP/3.01 xFIP
I wasn’t planning on listing him here, but I check the stats of everyone just in case, and to my surprise, Thompson’s stats are very good. It’s mostly because he isn’t walking anyone, which sort of intuitively feels like he’s not really a prospect. Although the 17th round is probably influencing that.
And there you have it. Some bad news, some good news, kind of wish there was more good news from the guys considered actual prospects, but hey that’s the life of following pitching prospects.