Following up on last week’s assessment of the first third, we look down the road
Last week, I put together a list of what has transpired in the first third of the season, organized by what has gone well and what has not. This week, I will look at what questions remain to be answered and what new ones might pop up that may need answers.
What are the major question marks?
In ways, you could boil this down to … Is this still a reset year or do they turn their sights to more near-term goals of winning this year? I.e. Do they revert to chasing wins? But there are many considerations to this multi-faceted issue.
Is an Arenado trade still an option? No one ever really says NO, but the combination of his declining power, relatively high salary, the Cardinals’ aversion to putting much cash out to buy the contract down and of course that pesky NTC all point strongly to Nolan Arenado closing out his career as a Cardinal. Let’s not forget the relative complexity of the contract and the situation that none of the teams who might want his services are on his desirable list (which itself seems quite small). I mean, how many times does the man have to decline opt-outs or requests to waive the NTC before the message is clear?
Here is a fun fact that might give insight into the player’s perspective of this question. Nolan Arenado has started and finished 12 MLB seasons prior to 2025. Of those 12 seasons, he has played on but 3 teams (2017, 2021 and 2022) that have hit the 54-game mark with 30 or more wins. All 3 of those teams made the playoffs. The 2025 edition of the Cardinals hit the 30-win mark at game 53, making this the 4th time he has been here. I believe it has been well established that he wants to play on a contender.
A bullpen question created by a rotation solution – Under the heading of unintended consequence, the promotion of Liberatore to the rotation and retention of Matz as a sixth starter has left a hole in the lefty side of the bullpen, a critical piece given the strength of LH hitters in the division. Only the Cubs are > 100 wRC+ against LHP, the others are well under. This LTOGY (lefty three out guy) hole has not been filled adequately, and the King/Romero duo has not been particularly effective, by FIP or WAR.
Pitching now, and the future – As the trade deadline rolls up, a vexing problem is going to be the pitchers that are expected to become Free Agents at the end of the year and what to do with them. Looking ahead to next year, 3 of the 6 starters and the closer are likely gone at the very least. The modern mid-market ideology would be to trade them and get a prospect (or two) back. Never lose talent without getting something back, they say. Proper asset management is what it is called.
The pitchers possibly involved in deadline trades are Helsley, Matz, Fedde (I leave Mikolas out of this due to his NTC) along with a couple of possible non-tender candidates among the arb-eligible pitchers (King, Romero). But the Cardinals aren’t likely to have the depth to absorb losing these guys (same if they got hurt), particularly with all the injuries on the minor league side.
To not do these deals at the deadline would compromise the future talent pipeline of the organization, as they would be faced with losing these guys for no return at the season’s end and needing to rebuild a rotation for next year.
On the other hand, to do these deals would be capitulating on a season that has so far gone as good as could be expected, would sell the remaining core of this team down the road, and conflict with another baseball orthodoxy – when you get a chance at the brass ring, you take it because you never know when that chance might come again. Vexing, for sure.
Expect them to procrastinate on this decision right up to deadline day. I’m convinced there will be lots of hand-wringing and trade deadline speculation, but who really knows what they will do? We will have much more insight into a lot of things just after 1800 hours on July 31.
The conundrum named Alec Burleson – An analytic favorite for his bat-to-ball skills, it is hard to look at Burleson’s MLB career to-date (or even just this season) and ascribe Small Sample Size to the results. His overall WAR of 0 over 1100+ PA suggests “replacement level player”. Going six weeks without barreling a single ball at this season’s outset didn’t move that perception much. His main issue, offensively, is a tendency to make poor swing decisions (he hits everything he swings at, and he swings at everything). His O-swing% has increased every year (wrong way!) and is now 40%. This leads to chronically low BABIP (.272 career). This year, he is wRC+ of 109 while showing unusually good BABIP for him (.313, which is 40 points higher than his norm). Dare I say, he has been lucky to be a tad above average so far?
He is a defensive liability in the outfield, already -1 OAA out there this year even though he has only played like 5 minutes. Yes, SSS definitely. But -17 over 1100 innings isn’t. Remember when I described Walker as horrid with -16 OAA over 1400 innings? If -16 over 1400 innings is horrid, what is -17 over 1100 innings.
He seems adequate (at least) defensively at first (+1 OAA this year) but is blocked by Contreras. His BsR is well in the negative category, not great for a team that needs to improve in this area. Yet he plays and plays. He has played himself into a strong side platoon DH and backup first baseman role and sometimes outfielder. One could wonder if this roster spot could be more strategically utilized.
Where will Libby be later in the year? Although he pitched 125 IP or more twice in his MiLB career, it has been a couple years since that has happened. Can the Cardinals really expect he crosses this threshold AND remains as effective as he has been?
Is a subtle roster change underway? – One thing that doesn’t fit neatly in any category is a very subtle shift that seems to be occurring with the roster and perhaps some management philosophy.
One of the concerns coming out of the 2024 season was how many one-dimensional players the Cardinals had (some call them DH types) and how limiting that was to line-up construction. The end result was daily line-up bingo, as the manager tried to press, form, flake and fit a line-up together each night that resulted in lots of moving around and optimized the sub-optimization.
Here we are 1/3 of the way into the season and at least two of those players (Siani, Baker) have been taken off the 26-man roster. In their place? Pozo and Barrero. In very different ways, those guys bring different skill sets that allow the manager to do things he couldn’t before. With Pozo, he can deploy Herrera without fear of losing the backup catcher. With Barrero, he has some RH hitting chops and speed/athleticism that can be inserted offensively or defensively in multiple places as the opportunity arises. These players are more traditional utility/bench role players, not bats looking for a place to play, and thus a secondary benefit has been a more stable line-up, both offensively and defensively.
Granted, these don’t appear to be key roles on the team (are there really any unimportant roles on a winning team?), but in the world of roster construction, there are only 26 roster spots and the Cardinals have re-deployed 2 of them. It doesn’t take that many changes to alter the character and feel of the roster.
This subtle change, if it is really intentional and not just an accident of timing and opportunity, could lead one to question if perhaps Gorman and Burleson don’t really fit in the team’s future plans, for many of the same one-dimensional reasons. One of the limitations the Cardinals have encountered with shoring up outfield depth (and talent) is they’ve really needed to look into the very thin RH hitter market. If you picture a future without Gorman and Burleson on this roster (both lefties), a LH hitter to replace Walker in RF would no longer be problematic as the line-up would no longer be so lefty heavy. This may enlarge the market the Cardinals could shop in and offer new opportunities. Just a thought…
How has the litany of MiLB pitching injuries altered the plan for this year? At the surface, it appeared that young pitchers (McGreevy, Graceffo, et.al.) would get opportunities during the first half of the year at the MLB level when injuries or non-performance pushed them. Unscheduled, but expected. So far, the injury bug hasn’t bitten yet (at the MLB level).
It also appeared that the 2nd half of the year would open a window where some higher-end prospects might ascend and try their hand at MLB. Hence, Mathews, Roby, as their performance allowed them to pass up lesser prospects. This lined up well with an expectation of trading pending free agents and allowing top prospects to slip into the vacated spots.
However, injuries have sidelined Hence and Mathews. Have those injuries pushed their window more into 2026? Roby has started well at AA. Innings management might be a great concern with him and one can wonder if his window doesn’t really open until 2026, also. This coming off-season, they could still have little idea what pitching they really have.
What of that runway? Re-summarizing all the Small Sample Size challenges – Walker, Gorman, Barrero. Graceffo. McGreevy. Pozo. What are these guys? Pozo and Barrero are reasonably cast as bit players, but the rest? Of these, who gets runway and who gets lip service? It would seem helpful if the Cardinals knew what they had in all of these guys by Sep 30. Today, it’s not pressing, but the clock IS ticking. An interesting conundrum … would the season be considered a success if they still aren’t sure about these guys, but they make a wild card playoff spot?
I try and think along with Cardinal management and figure what they are going to do from there. This particular question is super vexing. Many believed the “reset” or “runway” approach was the best way to go after watching them chase marginal improvements that endlessly moved them farther away from a sustainable winning model. Yet I find myself unconvinced that they really buy their own strategy and I suspect they will revert to chasing marginal improvements in hopes it tips them from 85 wins to 87-88 and then hope that catapults them into a playoff series, where damn near anything can happen. They’ve been doing this for a while and old habits are hard to break.
Are the Cardinals as dependent on Gorman and/or Walker emerging as many thought? I’m in this group too, so I don’t judge. What if Herrera is THAT hitter, where maybe even .800 OPS is low for him? What if Liberatore is THAT pitcher, where he at least approaches, if not reaches, TOR status? Is Winn a 4-5 WAR player already? That’s ascendance, just not from the envisioned quarters, nor were 3 players expected to ascend at the start of 2025. Based on the first 1⁄3 results, these are not outlandish ideas. One can see the potential for high-caliber play to have arrived in a way that fills an important gap in St. Louis – the lack of 4-5 WAR stars to drive the team above the average-ish level. In all the hot takes at season’s start, I don’t remember anyone suggesting Liberatore-Herrera-Winn as solidifying their spot as the team’s new core.
Of course, this begets a secondary question. If they don’t need Gorman/Walker to emerge, where does the power come from?
Should they chase a playoff run? The lost direction of the last few years fundamentally ties back to their “chasing” of that last acquisition that makes them a playoff team. Ozuna for the power bat. The 2021 pitchers at the deadline. The 2022 pitchers at the deadline. Goldy for the power bat. Arenado for the power bat Ozuna wasn’t. When they added power bats, the pitching went sideways. When they added pitching, the offense went sideways. Ugh.
As the season unfolds, optimism for a potential playoff run grows. Should this team look to acquire some short-term rentals to fill obvious holes (bullpen, right field)? What about those pending FAs? Keep them or trade them? Can they buy and sell simultaneously? It’s a sexy strategy to dream on, but hard to execute well. Or should they stand pat and hold the strategy they adopted?
What about the fans? Actual game attendance has been poor but seems to be picking up. Season ticket sales has dropped from a high point of ~38,000 to something more like ~20,000. Can’t ignore that statement from the fanbase, can they? Derrick Goold of STLToday said it best. The players have bought in. When do the fans buy in? And if they do, does ownership and management buy in?
It’s been a fascinating and, mostly, fun season so far. It appears that it will be, at the very least, fascinating the rest of the way.
Revised Projections
Just prior to the start of the season, I took a run at mashing together what a position-by-position WAR expectation (based on good health) would look like. Not so much an addition of everyone’s individual projected WAR, but what they could expect position by position. That article can be found here.
Based on changes to the roster, and how playing time is actually playing out, along with observed performance that are beyond SSS, I’ve made a few revisions. Some up, some down. I kept the original WAR projections and added a column for a revised target. See below.
At the end of the day, this still looks like an ~85-win team, just with a bit different way of getting there than originally imagined. If you stretch, this may be an 86-win team now.
The original projection came with the caveat that Gray, Winn and Helsley must stay healthy. The rest are mix-and-match enough that losing someone else would probably not alter the course of events too much.
After watching this team for 8 weeks, I’d offer a couple of additions: Liberatore must stay healthy and effective and I’m not sure they have a plug-and-play replacement if he went down. In retrospect, I probably discounted the impact of what injuries to Donovan or Nootbar might be. If Nootbar got hurt, who would lead-off? If Donny got hurt, I’m sure some combination of Gorman and Saggese would plug in, but probably a pretty good drop in performance. And one might start to view Herrera’s bat as irreplaceable. That is one of the great consequences of a good development program – players ascend and become indispensable. It’s a good problem to have.