Let’s evaluate the roster to prepare it for the season’s second part.
Good morning, Viva El Birdos!
Today, I return to a topic that I introduced last week: a season in three parts.
Let’s start with a frequently used baseball metaphor that I find ill-applied. You’ve heard the saying before: “A baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint.” The concept makes sense at the most basic level. A baseball season is not a football season. It’s not 1 loss and you’re out of the National Championship picture. It’s 162 games long. LONG. A team can’t just go sprinting all in during April and hope to make it through to the end.
There are a lot of problems with the baseball as a marathon metaphor. I could write a whole series of articles about them. The biggest is that a marathon is a solo event. You get out there by yourself and you run. You can’t tag anyone else in. You can’t call a timeout and chat with your coaches about strategy for the final 5k. It’s you. A road. And some serious chafing. Until you finish. Or not.
A baseball team is not a solo endeavor. It’s a team sport. And that team is a fluid entity. The rules of MLB allow teams to make changes to their roster for the entire length of the season. A team can replace injured players, sign free agents, plug minor league players into their roster, or pull underperforming players from the lineup from game 1 through game 162.
At no point (ok, at very few points) is any one person out there by themselves with the fate of a full season in their hands.
Instead, the team can make necessary changes in their personnel to maximize their winning potential over this marathon season. (Sorry, I had to.)
That’s why I, and others, often talk about a baseball season in three parts. You can think of this in terms of thirds: April + May, June + July, August + September. Those dates are more organizational than meaningful. It’s the purpose of each section of time that matters.
I’ve decided to frame the three parts of the season in terms of a guiding question; a mindset or goal that the organization – the players, manager/coaches, and front office – are trying to consider during each section of play.
First third: What do we have?
The first third of the season is all about finding out what a team has at their disposal. Their 26-man roster. Their 40-man roster. Their MLB-ready non-roster prospects. As well as the landscape of the rest of the division/league and where the team fits within that landscape.
Second third: What do we need?
The second third is all about the team re-positioning their assets or acquiring new ones to maximize their season goals, whatever those are. If it’s to win, then they should try to place their players into the best roles to win as often as possible. They should fill gaps from outside the organization through trades, bench or re-utilize underperforming players, and call up impact performers from the minors. If contending doesn’t seem feasible, the second third of the season becomes about finding the best way to use prospects and expendable parts to prepare for next season.
Final third: What can we do?
The final third decides it all. With the assets the team has put into place on the field, can they achieve their goals? If they are trying to contend, then they have to win the games needed to do so. If they are not trying to contend, then the team has to see the progress they want from the players they have – in the majors and the minors – to know where they stand entering the offseason.
As I write those on June 17, 2024 – two days before you read it – the Cardinals are solidly into the second third of the season. They should have a pretty good idea of what they have now, both on the roster, in the system, and the standings. Now it’s time to put those assets in a position to win as many games as possible or look outside the organization to find the pieces they need. Or, if contending is out of the picture, they need to start building for the future.
The Cardinals have likely already walked through the process I’m going to lay out internally. Let’s do it, too. While I intended to cover the first two questions in detail today, I don’t think that’s going to work. “What do we have?” and “What do we need?” are questions that will demand significant word counts – especially the latter question. So, I’m breaking them into (at least) two articles.
This one, as the title suggests, will offer my evaluation of the MLB roster, the 40-man roster, and the MLB-ready prospects. Based on that evaluation, I’ll answer a simple question that will guide my approach to part 2 of the series next week. That question? Can this team contend in the NL Central and National League? Or should it build for the future?
Let’s start with evaluating what the team has.
What Do the Cardinals Have: MLB Lineup & Bench
This format doesn’t lend itself to detailed analysis. So, we’ll go position by position and provide a quick evaluation.
C – Solid (Could be a strength). Contreras is returning. Herrera has the highest fWAR of any Cardinal catcher not named Molina or Contreras since at least 2004. Pages is what you want from a 3rd catcher. Unless Contreras has an unexpected setback, the C position is just fine.
1B – Solid/Problem. The Cardinals are committed to Paul Goldschmidt at 1st. He’s struggled, producing just an 88 wRC+ on the season. Still, the club has given him the most PAs on the team. Over the last 30 days, though, Goldy has a 110 and a significantly improved K rate. Behind him, the Cardinals have Burleson, who likely won’t exceed the 110 wRC+ Goldy has shown lately if he was given more time. 1b is a problem based on the team’s expectations, which are very high for Goldy, but it seems likely production will be “solid” at the position from here forward.
2B – Strength. Gorman has been just fine offensively, if still streaky. He’s been just fine defensively. Donovan is behind him if he suffers an injury. 2b is one of the stronger positions on the club.
3B – Solid. Arenado struggled to begin the season and has been hovering around league average offensively. His defense isn’t elite but is still quality. The Cards expect better-than-solid from Arenado but he hasn’t been bad enough to consider third a problem they’ll have to address.
SS – Strength. Winn has been great and shows no signs of slowing down. However, as a rookie, Winn needs regular time off or the grind of 162 will wear him down. Crawford still has a role on this team, if only by default. He is at 0.1 fWAR on the season and a 76 wRC+. That’s not good but it isn’t bad enough to draft down my positional evaluation.
LF – Solid. Nootbaar has been the third-best hitter on the team. His production per PA would place him near 4 fWAR over 600 PAs if he could stay healthy. He can’t. Thankfully, the Cardinals have Donovan to fill in for him. Donny’s hitting has improved over the past month, but he’s still not walking at his normal levels. Overall, the combination of the two remains a strength for the club.
CF – Huge Problem. “Huge problem” might not even do this situation justice. Scott, Siani, and Carlson have combined for a 32 wRC+ and -0.9 fWAR. That’s unbelievably bad. They could double their wRC+ and still be in the bottom five teams in the league. Carlson has shown the slightest glimmer of improvement lately but that’s grasping at straws. Edman should return soon, but I’m still very skeptical of his ability to hit right away from what has become a major wrist issue. Any way you slice this one, centerfield is a huge issue for the Cardinals and needs to be addressed.
RF – Problem. The Cardinals don’t have a right fielder. They don’t. To prove that point, tell me who leads the team in PAs from RF? The answer is left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Burleson barely edges out Jordan Walker with 67 PAs in just 19 games behind him. Then Carlson lags a few games behind. Walker’s collapse this season has left a gaping hole that the club has had to patchwork like a moth-eaten quilt. It’s not quite as bad as CF because Donovan and Burly can (sort of) play there defensively when Noot is healthy. Still, the club needs someone who can take the position and make it theirs or find someone from outside who can.
DH – Solid. The Cardinals have, as expected, taken an eclectic approach to DH. Burleson has taken the most PAs at the position and is having a fine season. He’s a nice starting DH and backup 1b/RF. Carpenter hasn’t been very good but his veteran leadership has to count for something, right? Regardless, with Contreras on his way back, the DH position is sound enough.
Bench – Problem. I’ve covered most of the bench players above. Carpenter, Herrera, Pages, Crawford, Fermin, and Siani have filled roles but only Herrera is a plus contributor. The Cardinals simply aren’t getting much more than placeholder production from their reserves. Even with low expectations, that’s not good enough.
What Do the Cardinals Have: MLB Rotation & Bullpen
Gray – Strength. Gray started unbelievably hot and while he’s fallen back a little, he’s still one of the best starters in the game. The Cards have a number one starter. He’s probably the only high-impact player on the roster who has stayed (relatively) healthy and performed like a high-impact player.
Starters 2-4 – Solid. Order the next three any way you want. They’re all the same. Lynn is the second-best starter at 1.0 fWAR. Gibson is fourth at 0.8 fWAR. Mikolas is in the middle. Less than 0.25 separates their FIP. The Cardinals are getting what they expected from these three so far and their health has been better than many feared.
5th Starter and Beyond – Problem. The fifth starter spot, on the other hand, has been real trouble. Matz struggled and it’s been a revolving door since his injury. Thankfully (I guess) he’s coming back soon but the inability of a backup starter to emerge doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season. Even if Matz comes back and settles in, there will likely be another injury in the rotation at some point. That’s just what happens to arms age 35 or older. The backend of the rotation is likely to remain a problem.
Bullpen – Strength. Helsley, Kittredge, Romero, and Fernandez are all having excellent seasons. Four arms pitching at a very good/elite level is enough to make the bullpen a strength regardless of who follows. Liberatore, King, and others have been just fine filling gaps. Other arms are on their way back to health. The bullpen is a strength even if there’s always room to add to it.
What Do the Cardinals Have: 40-man Roster and MLB-Ready Prospects
40-Man Roster Depth – Problem. Part of the problem here is that the AAA roster depth has had to spend quite a bit of time in the majors. Siani, for example, has not been the 4th centerfielder in Memphis. He’s been a regular starter in the majors. The bullpen is down to Leahy and Roycroft instead of O’Riley and Robertson. When injuries compile, it stretches depth and the Cardinals don’t have anyone on the 40-man roster pushing for MLB playing time right now. That’s a problem.
MLB-Ready Prospects – Problem. I could just repeat that last sentence and paste it here. Who among the non-40-man prospects is making a case that they should be major leaguers? Prieto might eventually steal time from Jose Fermin but that’s as far as he goes. Kaperniak is hitting a little, but considering his age and prospect status, he’s hardly exciting. McGreevy and Graceffo aren’t consistently distinguishing themselves. AA has more names to consider, but they’re not going to make this list until they have some time at AAA. No impact help is going to come from the high minors this season.
What Do the Cardinals Have: Contenders or Rebuilders?
Let’s start putting the pieces together. What do the Cardinals have? Do they have a team that can compete in the NL Central? The National League? The answer to that question will guide how they handle the roster in June and July.
My answer is a definitive yes. Especially regarding the NL Central.
The Cardinals are, as of Tuesday morning, 36-35. They are over .500 for what feels like the first time in a year and a half. They are just 5 games back from a Brewers team that feels vulnerable to me. The mediocrity of the NL Central is coming back to the Cardinals, who have a future that looks more favorable than their immediate past.
And the rest of the NL? If the season ended today, the Cardinals would sneak into the final Wild Card playoff spot. The financial payout of a Wild Card series is worth chasing from an organizational perspective. The fun of doing so is worth it from a fan’s perspective.
Either way, the Cardinals are in striking distance of the postseason and that’s why they run the race/play the game!
The trade deadline isn’t for over a month, but as the team moves out of the first third of the season and into the second, this is a team that needs to start positioning its roster to win and make a real run at the division.
They’re already doing so.
Yes, the 2024 Cardinals have problem areas – several of them – that need to be addressed. The silver lining to those dark clouds is that injuries have compounded them. Critical players, most notably Contreras, Edman, Nootbaar, and Matz, are expected back in the lineup by the end of the month. While we don’t know how these players will perform following their various ailments, their presence pushes the Cardinals’ depth back into depth and out of the starting lineup.
Simply put, this team is better with Contreras flipping between DH and C and Pages heading back to AAA. It’s hard to imagine that Tommy Edman will be any worse at the plate following his wrist surgery than the Cardinals’ collective center fielders. Nootbaar’s injury is relatively minor and there’s little reason to think he can’t come back pretty much as he’s been.
Broadcasters and pundits might joke that getting players back is just like making a trade! That line has always bugged me. That said, getting players back should allow the Cardinals to better focus on 1-2 critical spots heading into the trade deadline. Like center, right, or the depth starter role. Health allows a team to better maximize their roster heading into the final leg of the race, rather than plugging holes just to stop the leaking.
The Cardinals were a .500 baseball team while struggling through those injuries and facing a major offensive nosedive from two of their core players. It’s only going to take a month or two of “normal” health and production from the roster to push up the win column and challenge the Brewers.
Next week we’ll talk about how to do that, answering the question “What do the Cardinals need?” in terms of both outside acquisitions and internal lineup and roster decisions. Stay tuned.