In a (hopefully) fun way
The 2025 Championship Season began as one of transition, or reset, or whichever term you prefer. The Cardinals were going to focus their efforts back to their historical strengths – draft and player development. They conveyed the message that part of that re-focus included providing some of their young players with some “runway” where they would receive copious playing time and be afforded opportunity to work through the natural ups-and-downs of a young players’ performance. This would be a shift away from benching young players who were struggling and banishing them to “work days” away from game situations. It would necessitate an acceptance that winning, in the moment, wouldn’t necessarily be the priority. The Manager described it with examples like maybe they’d give a young guy an AB whereas the prior match-up and win-now orientation would suggest a PH. Or leaving a young pitcher in a high leverage situation where perhaps a been-there-done-that reliever might have been the more “win now” move. The GM/POBO had examples of this “runway” concept as well. One of the more easily grasped examples was the idea that he’d like to see young hitters like Gorman and Walker get five to six hundred PAs to see what they could do with them. Well enough. This seemed like a sensible approach to many.
An unspoken nuance of this new approach is illuminated with a question. Just exactly how long would said runway be. It turns out, clearance to taxi, clearance to take-off and achieving actual lift off would be different for each player. In hindsight, not a shock. Given what we’ve seen, I’ve been ruminating a bit on what “runway” has actually meant to each player. It’s quite possible that no one knew, in detail, at the time, but some better definition seems to have evolved.
As I’ve considered this “runway” approach, I’ve tried to keep with the analogy (which I like because I know a little bit about aviating). So, what are some of the nuances? I am reminded that different aircraft require different amounts of runway. The B-2 carrying Bunker Buster bombs needs a tad more runway than the nimble F-35. I am also reminded that an aircraft that has taxied to the take-off point may not be in the right configuration and may have to cancel said clearance and try again. Noteworthy, too, is the idea that there are usually more planes than actual runways, so someone gets to wait in the queue. So, I’ve tried to apply this analogy to each player and see how it rolls off the keyboard.
Then there is the added consideration that one plane taking off impacts another that can’t quite get airborne in subtle and hard to detect ways. Last is the harshest analogy. In aviation, there is a point called V1, which is the go/no-go decision point for a pilot. At this point, the pilot commits to taking off no matter what happens, or he hits the brakes and aborts the take-off. I suspect that V1 will become more of an understood concept as the recent Air India crash is dissected and understood. The baseball equivalent? When the team decides to abort the runway roll, get the plane off the runway and get a different plane going. Not a temporary benching, which can be undone, but really when they bring in a replacement player via trade, or minor league promotion.
Jordan Walker – This anticipated bomber probably needs the most runway, as power develops last. From a timeline standpoint, the runway needed may stretch well into the 2026 season, if not beyond. Because of his option situation, there is a hard cap which might not match the timeline he needs. More subtly, as other power sources emerge (Gorman, Baez), the amount of runway he sees may well be curtailed. This is the flip side. While he may need lots of runway, he really gets it right up to the point someone else emerges to take his takeoff slot. As his offensive profile really doesn’t show even hints that lift-off might occur, it is beginning to look like Gorman and Burleson emerging is squeezing Walker off the runway. Should this team decide to make a move to improve, this is the spot where improvement can most easily be achieved. That is all I will have to say about the trade deadline. We will gnash our teeth about the off-season later.
Nolan Gorman – similar to Walker, in that a bomber requires a long runway since power develops last. A bit further down the development path, this player has actually shown more actual results (27 HR in 2023) at the MLB level, so there is more to hang the hat on than just projections and hope. However, his take-off clearance was effectively curtailed when Nolan Arenado vetoed a trade to the Astros. Donovan entrenching himself at second base and competition at DH further cemented his standing in the queue, instead of on the runway. Injuries, as they often do, cleared a path and with that path we are starting to see the Gorman we hoped for.
Victor Scott II – More of the nimble fighter than the lumbering bomber, Scott got early lift off with a strong performance out of the gate. Bluntly, lift-off for him was he just had to be as good or better than the competition (Siani) and he has established that, even with some ups-and-downs in his offensive profile. He is off the runway. Whether he will remain airborne has yet to be determined fully. Unlike Walker, he is advantaged in that no serious competition seems to be in the pipeline.
Alec Burleson – The ultimate analogy to the A-10 Warthog. Needs just a little runway and can mash in the correct battlefield setting. However, given limitations, the Warthog is the last airframe anyone would select to go into battle, given choices. He got just enough DH and 1B PAs in the early going to overcome a super slow start (he didn’t barrel a single ball in April), and now he is one of the .800+ OPS hitters helping drive a more productive Cardinal offense. His flight status seems somewhat tenuous, in that it seems to depend on Walker being ineffective offensively and Herrera being hurt. Either of these situations changing could affect his flight status, especially if he cools.
Ivan Herrera – His runway has a slightly different shape. For him, it is more about which runway. Do they keep him at Catcher, put him as full-time DH, or something different? He really has already taken off as a hitter and unless he crashes, he will be in the line-up when healthy. He might be tied for first in the role of best hitter on the team. .800+ OPS guys play. Plain and simple. They even get priority clearance.
Thomas Saggese – Another of the nimble jet fighters, he is pretty much in an Air Traffic Control hold, awaiting a slot to get on the runway and take-off. At second base, Gorman and Donovan are in line in front of him, and Wetherholt isn’t far behind. Without injury, he may never get to roll down the runway to the tune of 500 PAs (with the Cardinals).
Michael McGreevy – A guy universally believed to be ready to roll down the runway and get airborne, he sits in de-icing. It’s not about readiness, it’s that there are only five (sometimes six) runways for starters and each already has a plane on it. In a macabre kind of way, he is waiting for one to crash and burn (injury, under-performance). Four times they’ve rolled him out to the taxi way, let him run down the runway for a few innings and then said never mind, your destination is Memphis and that is a drive, not a flight.
Mathew Liberatore – Who knew? He was expected to orbit around Reliever Airfield, yet pitched his way into the rotation, effectively elbowing out McGreevy (and Matz). So, this concept of runway is a bit less straightforward than Flight Simulators would have you believe. All of the sudden, he is one of the team’s most dependable pitchers, taking off on full after-burners and creating quite a show. And a lefty, to boot! When they brought out the snowplows and cleared the runway for him this spring, I thought it sounded crazy, but he has been up to the task.
If we raise our time horizon just a bit, and look beyond the players already needing runway, we are reminded that the inexorable march of prospects creates more runway needs and squeezes someone out. Two top-flight pitching prospects are now at Memphis in Roby and Mathews. They are not cleared out of the gate yet, but their time is coming, even though McGreevy circles. Somehow, I suspect Wetherholt will be in Memphis soon. Turns out, in a draft-and-development organization, this whole runway concept is a thing, not a one-time aberration.