A closer look at Cardinals Day One picks in MLB Draft

It seems like a good draft

Yesterday was a good day to be a Cardinals fan. They won a game that lasted almost 7 hours to complete thanks to some nasty weather. And for the second straight year in a row, the Cardinals drafted somebody who was not supposed to fall to them with their first pick of the MLB draft. They went heavy on Tennessee – drafting a high schooler from there and two pitchers from the Volunteers. Depending on what source you use, there is at least a debate that they drafted the best player in the draft period who is expected to make the majors quickly. The way baseball works, that alone makes it a great draft.

Let’s look at who they picked in a little bit more detail last night.

Liam Doyle, LHP Pick #5

6’2, 220 pounds – 21-years-old

Stats: 19 G (17 GS), 95.2 IP, 49.2 K%, 8.3 BB%, 3.20 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

Scouting (Fangraphs): FB: 80/80, 60/60 Slider, 45/55 CH, 55/60 Cutter, 30/45 Command

What’s not to love? It is claimed he has relief risk and I suppose the low command scores are to blame for that, but he certainly seems to have the pitches to start. He uses his fastball a lot, but that’s because he has an 80 fastball and not because he doesn’t have other good pitches. An 80 grade on the fastball essentially means that Eric Longenhagen thinks, right now, Doyle has the best fastball in the major leagues, or at least on par with the best fastballs. Not potential, but right now.

He also carries two other good pitches that would play in the MLB right now. One that is above average, but could be better, and another that is already good. And a fourth that needs some work. Another plus is that despite all that upside, he’s supposed to be in the majors pretty quickly. Where the Cardinals have been used to picking for the last 20 years, they simply haven’t had this combination of upside, risk and quickness to the majors available to them.

With Doyle, I feel it’s less useful to just share scouting reports, because even a casual fan knows his scouting report at this point and I think one of the other writers will do a deeper dive on Doyle later. So instead, some things you haven’t seen yet. Four days prior, Michael Baumann compared Doyle with Jaime Arnold, a lefty that went seven picks later. The profile had some gems in it.

“But on the mound, at least, he’s just like this. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a pitcher — especially a starter — so relentlessly keyed up during a game. There’s a little bit of Bob Gibson to how Doyle flings his arms and torso at the plate. When he gets strike three, he’ll either bounce off the mound or prowl toward third base while the catcher throws the ball around the horn.

All pitchers pace the mound between batters, to get back to the rubber and clear their heads, but Doyle scans the infield like he’s making sure nobody else out there is going to try to fight him.

To be honest, it’s very un-baseball, even after it stopped being against the rules to have feelings 10 years ago. Doyle doesn’t just challenge his opponents by coming inside with the fastball, he challenges them verbally. His call-out of Costello is the closest thing I’ve ever seen on a baseball diamond to a basketball player wiping off the bottoms of his shoes and calling iso on a weak defender. It’s great. I can’t get enough of it.”

From head coach Tony Vitello,

“But I think, no matter who you’re debating out of that group, Liam wins the clubhouse battle easily. I wasn’t in the big leagues, but I know from guys I’ve coached that there’s a lot of time in the dugout, a lot of time in the clubhouse, and I think he’s going to be phenomenal whatever organization he’s in.”

With similar glowing quotes from a couple of his teammates.

Keith Law, prior to the MLB Draft, named Liam Doyle as one of the fast movers of the draft.

“A team could take him in July and either try to call him up as a reliever in September if they’re contending, given the way the fastball played when he was starting, or more likely (and maybe more responsibly) put him on the same path that Burns or Paul Skenes took, eyeing a June-ish callup next year.”

Add Law to the list of people who think Doyle’s fastball will play in the MLB immediately. It’s a large list. From Benjamin Hochman’s column on the pick, Randy Flores shared a story about Doyle from this season playing through a blister for a chunk of the season.

Baseball Prospectus had three writers on its livestream reacting to the draft. All three had Doyle as their top pitcher in the draft and when it looked like the Cardinals were going to draft Doyle, Jarrett Seidler said.

“Liam Doyle was our top ranked pitching prospect in the draft. He is the guy to me that needs the least tweaks, which the Cardinals pitching development is not there yet. The Cardinals pitching development does not excel at fastball shapes or arm side off-speeds. Luckily those are the two things he absolutely does not need even a little bit. They do really excel at giving guys like 45 gyro sldiers, which is actually what he needs.”

Ryan Mitchell, OF Pick 55

6’2, 185 pounds – 18-years-old

Scouting (MLB Pipeline): Hit 60, Power 50, Run 55, Arm 50, Field 50

Now these scouting numbers are one hundred percent potential and not current ratings. Mitchell is listed as a shortstop on most sites, but nobody actually believes he’s staying at SS. Some think he’ll move to 2B and of course when the Cardinals drafted him, ESPN called him an outfielder. That’s not out of nowhere – the outfield is in fact mentioned as a potential destination for him in multiple scouting reports.

On Twitter, Kyle Reis’ immediate reaction was, “Now, Ryan Mitchell is going to take TIME, so try and show patience. I’d wager he’s going to need a swing change (his timing is trash and he’s going to need to get a little more upright and balanced) to make him a real ML prospect and he’s raw around the edges defensively. I like a lot of other prep position player prospects more than Ryan Mitchell, but if tools are your thing and you want to swing for the fences with your second round pick then you couldn’t ask for much more that what Mitchell offers.”

Keith Law must really have loved the Cardinals first two picks, because he had Doyle ranked 2nd and Mitchell 30th – most other sites have Mitchell about where he was picked. In his draft report of Mitchell, he said this: “Mitchell was one of the most advanced and disciplined hitters on the showcase circuit last year, with whiff and chase rates of 16 percent each in almost 400 pitches at tracked events; on pitches well out of the zone (WOOZ?) his chase rate dropped to just 7 percent. He takes a long stride forward but keeps his weight back with excellent balance through contact, with fringy power but some projection to get to average. He doesn’t throw well at all, however, and will have to move off shortstop, possibly to second base, more likely to center, and in the worst-case scenario to left.”

In the BP livestream, Michael Donadeo’s first reaction was, “This is do-it-all, master of none. Probably a second baseman. Fun swing, he crouches down really far. It might not work but it’s fun to watch. It’s a lot of 50s (scouting grades) probably. I like it here.”

And while I’m not sure if he was the one to write up Mitchell on the Big Board, this is what they said about him when they ranked him 44th,

“It took Mitchell some time to find a swing that works for him. For much of his high school career, he would rotate so early that he was more or less standing up when making contact, but it’s now one of the most fun to watch in the class. He dips down a bit and explodes from the lower half. There is some risk it doesn’t play against higher velocity fastballs, but the contact rates on the circuit were adequate, and there’s enough athleticism, present bat speed, and physical projection to expect some power. Defensively, he has good actions but could be forced to second base in pro ball. There aren’t any elite tools here, but it’s a pretty well-rounded infield profile with an up arrow next to it.”

Tanner Franklin, RHP Pick 72

6’5, 225 pounds – 21-years-old

Stats: 27 G, 38.2 IP, 31.9 K%, 5.5 BB%, 4.89 ERA, 1.268 WHIP

Scouting (Pipeline): 70 FB, 50 Cutter, 50 Control

We all know 38.2 IP is not a large sample. For whatever reason, the BABIP against Franklin was sky high. That K/BB ratio somehow produced 40 hits in 38.2 IP. That is a .417 BABIP against. Depends on how you want to look at it, but I can’t imagine someone capable of running a 31.9 K% being deserving of that high of a BABIP.

Being picked this high, one can assume the Cardinals will try him at starting pitcher. He obviously needs another pitch, but a 70 fastball is a good starting point. Also Franklin was the fourth Tennessee pitcher drafted, so him being in the bullpen may have been him being on an absolutely loaded team.

I will say the folks on Twitter were a lot more enthusiastic about this pick than the comments on this site. Jake adds fuel to my speculation that Franklin only didn’t start because of how loaded the Volunteers were.

A Baseball America writer

Back to the BP livestream, Seidler said, “This is a straight stuff pick. In 2024, he was walking a batter an inning for Kenesaw State. The Cardinals have gotten into high vert, high velocity guys and let God sort it out. Which is honestly not the worst strategy. He’s going to need different off-speed pitches or he might just be Ryan Helsley.”

Jack Gurevitch, 1B/3B Pick 89

6’0, 215 pounds – 21-years-old

Stats: 56 G, 277 PAs, .371/.477/.681, 12.7 BB%, 15.5 K%, .310 ISO, .400 BABIP, 185 wRC+

Scouting (Fangraphs): 30/45 Hit, 35/55 Game Power, 60/60 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 30/40 Field

Gurevitch is going to have to hit, no question. Expected to land at 1B and with below average speed, nearly all of his value is going to have to come from his hitting. I will say he did play a bit of 3B, and I think the fielding being a 40 has more to do with the belief that he will land at 1B than thinking he’s a 40 defender at 1B if that makes sense. You put your 40 defenders at 1B.

MLB Pipeline had this to say about Gurevitch:

“Gurevitch has the chance to be a very good hitter at the next level. He has a handsy swing from the left side of the plate that is capable of making extremely loud contact, and he’s registering very high exit velocities this spring. He absolutely crushes fastballs, but he has a tendency to be a bit over-aggressive and chase pitches — especially breaking stuff — out of the zone, though some evaluators think that can be toned down. It’s mostly hard line drives to all fields, but there’s some belief there’s more power to come given how hard his contact has been.

Strong and compact, Gurevitch has played some third base this year, but most feel like he’s destined to be a first baseman. He gets very high marks for his toughness, leadership and overall makeup, which might give teams more confidence he’ll maximize his tools.”

Kind of sounds like Gurevitch has the Jordan Walker problem. He hits a lot of balls on the ground. Of course, if he’s really like Jordan Walker, he will absolutely blow through the minors first.

The MLB Draft starts back up in a few hours.