A little delayed, but it’s finally here.
Before the 2nd half had officially began, I gave up an update on how the minor league hitters were doing. It’s been a bit of a wait, but it’s time to give the pitching side of the equation. Lot of names to cover, so let’s just get right to it.
Memphis
Tekoah Roby, 23 – RHP (on 40 man, #10 VEB prospect)
3rd round, 2020 draft (by the Rangers)
Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.85 FIP/2.70 xFIP
AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.00 FIP/4.02 xFIP
Two things: I actually did not realize how good his stats were this year. I knew he re-emerged after barely pitching in 2024 and not being very good when he did pitch. Secondly, my gut feeling about his trip to the injured list – his last game was the 10th – is it’s a way to reduce his innings. I have nothing to back that up. Not that it means anything necessarily, but he had quite a good game on the 10th, which is relevant only insofar as when a pitcher has a bad game and then goes on the IL right after, it seems hard to argue he wasn’t pitching hurt. Either his injury had zero effect on how he pitched or he wasn’t pitching hurt.
Gordon Graceffo, 25 – RHP (on 40 man, #12 VEB prospect)
2021 draft, 5th round
Stats: 18 G, 4 GS, 38 IP, 24.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, 52.7 GB%, .286 BABIP, 3.89 ERA/3.75 FIP/3.56 xFIP
There is no attempt being made to stretch Gordon Graceffo out as a starter at this moment. I see both arguments. It kind of feels like they’re treating Graceffo like they treated Liberatore in 2024 – figure out a way to get MLB hitters out first as a reliever. That said, Graceffo’s problem is more that his stuff just doesn’t last in longer outings, so even though he’s pitched pretty well in a relief role, you can’t just assume it’ll translate to starting. He did allow four runs yesterday in one inning of work.
Sem Robberse, 23 – RHP (on 40 man, #13 VEB prospect)
Out for the year with Tommy John after making just 4 AAA starts
I’m honestly curious with what they do with Robberse. He has now burned two options, however, one way or the other, the Cardinals aren’t burning an option of his next year. Either he stays on the 40 man, but spends the entire year on the 60, or they try to sneak him through waivers, and he spends 2026 off the 40 man. I think they’ll attempt the latter, and I’m not sure he’s quite a good enough prospect for someone to claim him, but it is risky.
Matt Svanson, 26 – RHP (on 40 man)
13th round, 2021 draft (Blue Jays)
Stats: 15 G, 21.2 IP, 22.4 K%, 9.2 BB%, 60.6 GB%, .385 BABIP, 3.32 ERA/3.44 FIP/3.64 xFIP
Considering he spent 2024 in AA as a 25-year-old with just a 20% K rate, I’d say Svanson at both AAA and the majors is exceeding expectations. Consider: he was gotten for Paul DeJong, who did not have much value at the deadline.
Ryan Fernandez, 27 – RHP (on 40 man)
23rd round, 2018 draft (Red Sox)
Stats: 28 G, 32.2 IP, 32.6 K%, 14.2 BB%, 40.5 GB%, .301 BABIP, 3.31 ERA/3.00 FIP/3.97 xFIP
Can I just say how bizarre it is that the Cardinals treated sending down Ryan Fernandez like it meant they had to torture his parents, and then have not called him back up once since then? I imagine he’ll get called up soon, because a lot of the other bullpen shuttle arms are running out of in-season options.
Chris Roycroft, 28 – RHP (on 40 man)
Stats: 21 G, 28 IP, 21.9 K%, 13.9 BB%, 53.4 GB%, .354 BABIP, 6.16 ERA/4.12 FIP/4.30 xFIP
If my counting skills are correct, Roycroft has only been sent down three times this season, so I also imagine we will see Roycroft before September. Actually, we might see all these guys later this week if we’re trading Matz, Helsley, and Maton. I didn’t even think about that. Anyway, Roycroft allowed four runs yesterday, so his advanced stats are going to be worse.
Roddery Munoz, 25 – RHP (on 40 man)
Stats: 26 G, 39 IP, 28.8 K%, 12.4 BB%, 44.4 GB%, .323 BABIP, 4.15 ERA/3.72 FIP/3.91 xFIP
Yeah I mean all these reliever options actually have good stats down in AAA, so one benefit of trading half the bullpen is you get a solid two months from the fringier members of the bullpen to see if they’re worth keeping. Munoz is the only one of this group who runs out of options after this season, so it could be really useful to see him at the MLB level in relief for the last two months.
Quinn Mathews, 24 – LHP (#2 VEB prospect)
4th round, 2023 draft
Stats: 13 G, 48.1 IP, 24 K%, 21.3 BB%, 47.1 GB%, .317 BABIP, 4.28 ERA/5.04 FIP/5.51 xFIP
Mathews has walked 9 guys combined in his last two starts, so unfortunately the walks problem hasn’t really gone away. If you had told me that the Cardinals would sell at the deadline and that Mathews would be healthy, I would have bet a lot of money he’d be starting games in the 2nd half at the MLB level. But I suspect he’s in AAA for the rest of the season due to his performance and also that he doesn’t need to be added to the 40 man. You like guys to force themselves onto the roster when there is no 40 man deadline and he has very much not done that.
Max Rajcic, 23 – RHP (#20 VEB prospect)
6th round, 2022 draft
Stats (AA): 16 GS, 73 IP, 22.4 K%, 8.4 BB%, 45.3 GB%, .321 BABIP, 4.07 ERA/3.68 FIP/3.82 xFIP
I realize I am listing Rajcic in the Memphis section and only listing his AA stats. That’s because he is in Memphis, he has in fact made two starts. In his first start, he wasn’t good. He walked three hitters, allowed two homers and only lasted 3 innings. In his second start, he was better, striking out four and not walking anyone. But he allowed two homers again.
Ian Bedell, 25 – RHP
4th round, 2020 draft
Stats: 9 GS, 34.1 IP, 21 K%, 10.2 BB%, 37.5 GB%, .350 BABIP, 8.91 ERA/6.61 FIP/5.30 xFIP
Bedell’s last appearance was two scoreless innings in the complex league (rehabbing), and their season has ended so I’m not sure where his next destination will be. I would have to imagine Bedell enters next season in the AAA bullpen, because it seems pretty clear his route to being in the majors is bullpen at this point. Unless he really turns around his season in the last two months.
Curtis Taylor, 30 – RHP
4th round, 2016 draft (by Twins)
Stats: 22 G, 15 GS, 91 IP, 22.6 K%, 8.7 BB%, 41.2 GB%, .266 BABIP, 3.16 ERA/4.35 FIP/4.52 xFIP
Some people are fans of Taylor getting a shot to start in the 2nd half this year. I am not one of those people. You might asking why? Well, he’s in the same category for me as a Rangel Ravelo or John Nogowski, someone whose AAA numbers would seemingly suggest they could handle the MLB, but whose age makes me doubt it will actually translate. Throw in his advanced stats being more mediocre than good, and I’m not on the Curtis Taylor bandwagon. With all that said, if the Cardinals trade literally half their bullpen, I wouldn’t mind seeing what he can do in relief at the MLB level.v
Aaron Wilkerson, 36 – RHP
Stats: 19 GS, 103 IP, 20.3 K%, 4.2 BB%, 32.7 GB%, .243 BABIP, 3.84 ERA/4.85 FIP/4.67 xFIP
I am not necessarily on this bandwagon either. Wilkerson does one thing well and that’s not walk people. That’s usually not enough to be successful at the MLB level.
Springfield
Tink Hence, 22 – RHP (on 40 man, #3 VEB prospect)
Comp Pick-B (63rd), 2020 draft
I won’t share his stats, because he never really got past the rehab stage. He’s made one real start this season – he faced 18 batters in a game where he gave up 5 runs in 3.1 IP. He surrounded that with not allowing a hit to 13 batters in his first AA game and then seemingly getting taken out after 3 scoreless innings before he went on the IL.
Cooper Hjerpe, 24 – LHP (#9 VEB prospect)
1st round (22), 2022 draft
He’s out for the season with Tommy John and in fact hasn’t pitched an inning in 2025.
Ixan Henderson, 23 – LHP
8th round, 2023 draft
Stats: 17 Gs, 91 IP, 26.2 K%, 9.5 BB%, 39.6 GB%, .281 BABIP, 2.37 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.76 xFIP
Every year it seems the Cardinals have one lower round pick just explode into being a prospect and this year Henderson certainly fits that bill. I actually get why he hasn’t been promoted yet to AAA – they’re great stats in a hitter friendly league – but you can see that walk rate and that GB rate being a problem in a harder league. Let him start next season in AAA.
Brycen Mautz, 23 – LHP
2nd round (59th), 2022 draft
Stats: 17 GS, 71.2 IP, 28.3 K%, 8 BB%, 37.3 GB%, .292 BABIP, 3.54 ERA/4.15 FIP/3.20 xFIP
After two consecutive years with an elevated BABIP, it’s nice to see a more normal BABIP for Mautz. The HR/FB% is still very high, but better pitchers than him have struggled to not allow homers at Springfield. There’s really nothing to criticize here, and I think he might borderline be MLB ready in a bullpen role right now. Not that I would do that.
Pete Hansen, 24 – LHP
3rd round, 2022 draft
Stats: 18 GS, 90.1 IP, 20.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 49.8 GB%, .296 BABIP, 3.79 ERA/3.99 FIP/3.87 xFIP
Yeah I don’t really see how Fangraphs thinks this is the 10th best prospect in the system. If any other team believes that, I am sincere in saying they should find a way to trade him for MLB help. This seems like a classic older pitching prospect who can’t quite crack a top 20 team list. Do not like that K rate.
Cade Winquest, 25 – RHP
8th round, 2022 draft
Stats (High A): 17 G, 23.9 K%, 9.5 BB%, 55.6 GB%, .331 BABIP, 4.52 ERA/3.77 FIP/3.84 xFIP
Winquest has made one start in AA as well, throwing 4 pretty good innings. His innings are being managed to some extent because he only threw 29 innings last year.
Austin Love, 26 – RHP
3rd round, 2021 draft
Stats: 26 G, 34.1 IP, 22.9 K%, 14.6 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .174 BABIP, 2.10 ERA/3.96 FIP/4.84 xFIP
As the season has gone on, Love has cut down on his BB rate. Nothing spectacular, but in his last 10 appearances, Love has walked 10% of batters. He’s on an extremely delayed timeline, but I am kind of curious if they try to move him back to starting next season. I would say probably not, but he has made top 20 team lists in the past so this isn’t some random guy.
Hansel Rincon, 23 – RHP
Stats (High A): 10 G, 49 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.3 BB%, 40.7 GB%, .280 BABIP, 4.22 ERA/3.78 FIP/3.90 xFIP
AA: 8 G, 42.1 IP, 30.9 K%, 6.3 BB%, 42.6 GB%, .340 BABIP, 3.40 ERA/2.86 FIP/2.75 xFIP
I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before. Rincon has been in the system since 2019 and has never really looked like much of a prospect. He repeated High A, where he spent all of 2024, and improved in the normal way. His K% rose a few points and his GB% rose as well. Nothing too crazy. And in response to his promotion to AA, he struck out hitters at a rate he has never struck out hitters before and improved upon the lower level in every way. He is suddenly a lock for the 40 man.
Luis Gastelum, 23 – RHP
Stats: 31 G, 40.1 IP, 34.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, 50 GB%, .378 BABIP, 5.13 ERA/2.54 FIP/2.36 xFIP
Gastelum completely skipped High A, so I don’t consider it a cause for concern, but I am finding it extremely weird how, in his third pro season, he has always had a high BABIP and always had a poor LOB%. Now it is important to note that it’s still a very small sample size, and especially for BABIP, because he just strikes out so many hitters.
Michael Watson, 23 – LHP
Stats: 28 G, 43.2 IP, 27.1 K%, 14.4 BB%, 43.7 GB%, .238 BABIP, 4.12 ERA/4.54 FIP/4.32 xFIP
He’s kind of interesting. An Indy ball signing last season, he destroyed Low A and then was okay in High A. He’s more or less been the same pitcher in AA. He’s a lefty, he strikes hitters out, and is only 23 in AA, so he might become something despite a walk issue.
Randal Clemente, 23 – RHP
Stats (Low A): 20 G, 29.1 IP, 35.7 K%, 14.3 BB%, 42.6 GB%, .317 BABIP, 3.99 ERA/3.27 FIP/3.12 xFIP
High A: 6 G, 8.1 IP, 36.7 K%, 6.7 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .133 BABIP, 0.00 ERA/2.26 FIP/3.11 xFIP
We might have something here, if he can ever muster up enough control to keep the walks in check.
Peoria
Chen Wei-Lin, 23 – RHP (#11 VEB prospect)
Stats: 9 GS, 31.1 IP, 27.3 K% 16.5 BB%, 50 GB%, .303 BABIP, 4.88 ERA/3.78 FIP/4.29 xFIP
Well this is turning into a bit of a lost season. He was put back on the injured list 11 days ago. As you can see by his innings per start, not really even a ton to be read from his performance in High A if he’s throwing about 3.5 innings per start.
Darlin Saladin, 22 – RHP (#16 VEB prospect)
Stats: 17 G, 11 GS, 68.1 IP, 18.9 K%, 12.3 BB%, 50.2 GB%, .302 BABIP, 5.35 ERA/5.17 FIP/4.44 xFIP
Not really sure what happened here. Saladin was treated like a real starter last year, but in response to his struggles, they’re giving him the kid gloves treatment. He started yesterday’s game but only faced 13 batters. He has not thrown 5 innings since May 22nd and has faced 16 or less batters in 5 of his last 6 appearances.
Zach Showalter, 21 – RHP (#17 VEB prospect)
Stats: 10 G (GS), 14.2 IP, 30.6 K%, 25 BB%, 28.6 GB%, .233 BABIP, 5.52 ERA/4.58 FIP/5.86 xFIP
Showalter has actually pitched recently, but in the complex league. He’s made two pretty strong appearances. Since that season is over, I would hope to see him in High A soon. I wonder if he’ll throw longer outings this time around since they’d probably like to see him with at least 50 innings this season.
Braden Davis, 22 – LHP
5th round, 2024 Draft
Stats (Low A): 16 G, 69 IP, 33.7 K%, 17.7 BB%, 53.7 GB%, .284 BABIP 3.26 ERA/3.76 FIP/3.55 xFIP
High A: 2 GS, 10 IP, 41 K%, 7.7 BB%, 29.4 GB%, .211 BABIP, 1.80 ERA/1.49 FIP/2.49 xFIP
You know if you told me to guess how he would pitch in High A based upon how he pitched in Low A, I would guess that he’d struggle in High A at first. But he responded much better than that, having two dominant performances.
Jason Savacool, 23 – RHP
6th round, 2023 Draft
Stats (Low A): 10 G, 10 GS, 21.5 K%, 7.5 BB%, 58.5 GB%, .235 BABIP, 1.61 ERA/3.24 FIP/3.47 xFIP
High A: 7 GS, 23.9 K%, 11.6 BB%, 48.9 GB%, .357 BABIP, 4.26 ERA/4.66 FIP/4.10 xFIP
Nothing too crazy, and I wish he was 22 instead of 23, but it’s nice to see him respond well to the promotion to High A.
Jose Davila, 22 – RHP
Stats: 18 GS, 80.2 IP, 18.3 K%, 10.1 BB%, 44.1 GB%, .315 BABIP, 5.91 ERA/5.10 FIP/4.89 xFIP
He will probably be repeating High A next season.
Juan Salas, 22 – RHP
Stats: 18 GS, 71 IP, 19.6 K%, 7.7 BB%, 40.6 GB%, .379 BABIP, 8.24 ERA/5.48 FIP/4.38 xFIP
Wow. On the one hand, Salas is not far off because his K/BB numbers with a respectable groundball rate suggests he’s doing something right. But that ERA is eye-popping. High BABIP allowed and letting almost half the runners who get on base to score will do that.
And wow I am going to have to stop here. Already written a lot of words and I still have another level left. Luckily, the rookie season leagues ended, so I am planning to combine the Low A pitchers with rookie league performances more broadly, hitters and pitchers. That may come Thursday…. that is unless the trading deadline gets in the way, which is probable. But it’ll be here at some point.