The Sabres made a big push yesterday to put themselves at the forefront to land top center Robert Thomas from the Blues. It appears whatever they put forth was a best-and-final offer and may not be enough to pry him away. Darren Dreger of TSN followed up this morning on yesterday’s report, saying that talks between Buffalo and St. Louis on Thomas “went the distance” but that it “sounds like the Sabres aren’t willing to part with the necessary pieces.”
That doesn’t mean talks between the two parties have ceased, though. Instead, they’ve transitioned to helping Buffalo address its paucity of right-shot defenders, with the team now expressing interest in Justin Faulk or Colton Parayko.
Faulk is viewed as the likelier of the two to move, presumably because of a slightly lower price tag. He’s been especially hot as of late, with five assists in his last five games, and is one of four Blues skaters to appear in all 60 games so far this season.
Alongside that durability, the soon-to-be 34-year-old has had an impressive year on both sides of the puck. Easily the brightest spot on their blue line, his 11-21–32 scoring line leads St. Louis D-men and is fourth on the team overall. He’s doing that while ranking second on the Blues in blocked shots with 101 behind Parayko’s 148. While his 47.5% Corsi For share at 5-on-5 isn’t all too impressive, the Blues have an even goal differential with him on the ice at 5-on-5. For how much he plays, averaging 22:30 per game in all situations, his -3 rating becomes a strong one on a team with a -52 goal differential.
Buffalo’s entire top four of Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram, Owen Power, and Mattias Samuelsson are lefties. Dahlin and Samuelsson have simply played too well together this season to break up, but it’s clear general manager Jarmo Kekäläinen is eyeing a name to plug into the second pairing alongside Byram or Power while bumping the other down to a third-pairing spot at even strength, giving them left-side depth last rivaled by the Lightning’s three-headed monster of Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Mikhail Sergachev during their Stanley Cup runs at the beginning of the decade.
Faulk and Parayko carry the same cap impact at $6.5MM. The former is easier to acquire, though not just because his somewhat weaker defensive reputation contributes to a lower price tag, but also because of his contract. He’s only signed through next season and has a 15-team no-trade list. Parayko, one year younger, is under contract through the 2029-30 season and, like Thomas, has a full no-trade clause that gives the Blues less maneuverability. With so much time left on his contract, the Blues are also in less of a rush to move him and squeeze value out of his deal.
Parayko, long regarded as a top-five shutdown defender in the league, has sat out of the Blues’ last two games due to back spasms. He’s also having quite a difficult season, amid being a virtual non-factor for Team Canada at the Olympics. His 14 points in 58 games are on pace for the worst offensive output of his 11-year career. His 44.9% Corsi For share at 5-on-5 ranks last among Blues defenders, and they’re getting outscored 54-38 with him on the ice at even strength.
At age 32, there’s likely some trepidation about committing for the rest of the decade if this season is more than just a flash in the pan. Faulk, whose contractual situation lies more in line with other targets Buffalo has expressed interest in, like Rasmus Ristolainen, is the more plausible outcome if the Sabres and Blues to manage to connect on a deal before Friday afternoon.