Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this installment, we will be making predictions on the New York Islanders versus the Detroit Red Wings. Make sure to continue following this series for the entire 2025-26 season.
NHL Predictions: New York Islanders vs Detroit Red Wings
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
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2025-26 Season Series: Islanders lead 2-0
For this NHL Prediction, we have two Eastern Conference teams, both in strong standing within their respective divisions. The Islanders are currently second in the Metropolitan Division through 33 games. Their record sits at 19-11-3, good for 41 points so far this season. The Red Wings also sit second in the Atlantic Division after 33 games. They hold a record of 18-12-3, which has them at 39 points on the season. This will be the third and final matchup between these two teams. After the Islanders won the first two meetings, Detroit will try and salvage the last game of this best-of-three series. The first two games rotated one in New York, one in Detroit. This final meeting, however, will take place at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
The Islanders Story
The Islanders come into this game after extending their win streak to three, finishing off a strong homestand. The offence scored four or more goals in two of the three games. They rank 19th in goals per game at 2.94, and with Bo Horvat still on the mend with his lower-body injury, they will need the rest of the forwards to step up. They will look towards Mathew Barzal, who recorded an assist in his first game as the top line centre, to be one of those guys. With a four-game point streak coming into this game, he would like to keep that rolling. Another player who will be asked to shoulder a lot of the production is Calum Ritchie. He took a jump from the bottom six to the top six due to the Horvat injury. He netted a goal in his first game in this role, which is a big opportunity for him. The former first-round pick has shown his draft pedigree recently, recording points in four of his last seven games.
Defensively, things continued to be strong for the Islanders. They held two high-scoring offences in the Tampa Bay Lightning and Anaheim Ducks to two goals each in their last games. They still have a top 10 goals against per game, ranked eighth in the league at 2.73. Led by a rookie in Matthew Schaefer, who just continues to impress playing top-pairing minutes at just 18 years old. He scored another goal in the last game. This tied him with Rasmus Dahlin and Zach Bogosian for the NHL’s third-highest single-season goal total for a defenceman age 18 or younger. Perhaps the biggest factor, however, is Ilya Sorokin returning to elite form. After just snagging his fifth straight win to go with a .942 save percentage in those games, he remains the backbone for this team moving forward. He is 12-8-2 with a .912 save percentage on the season. He and David Rittich make up one of the best goalie tandems in the league.
The Red Wings Story
Detroit comes into this game playing good hockey as well. Winning their last game, they have won four of their last five games. Their offence has got it done on this stretch, scoring four or more goals in those wins. This run has them ranked 14th in the league in goals for per game with 3.09. Led by Alex DeBrincat from their second line, he has 37 points in 33 games. Dylan Larkin spearheads the top line for the Red Wings. He has 37 points in 33 games. The offence will have to replace the production of Patrick Kane and his 23 points in 24 games. He will miss at least the next two games due to an upper-body injury.
The Red Wings’ defence and goaltending have been their weak point. While they do have two shutouts over their last five games, in the other three games, they have let up three goals or more. Their inconsistency leads them to be ranked 21st in goals against per game with 3.24. In net, their starter, John Gibson, has been in strong form as of late, recording the two shutouts mentioned. Despite this, he is 9-7-1 with an .890 save percentage. Cam Talbot, their backup, hasn’t been better. He has lost his last five games in net. He holds a 9-5-2 record with a .885 save percentage. This is the first of a back-to-back for Detroit. As of print, either goalie has not been announced yet.
Prediction
Coming into this game, both teams have been playing winning hockey. When evaluating this matchup further, however, the Islanders hold more advantages. With Horvat down, the Red Wings’ offence has the slight advantage. Meanwhile, on the blueline, New York has the advantage there. In the net, no matter who starts for either team, the Islanders also have the edge there. With the game being in Detroit, they have the home ice advantage, although we don’t think that will be enough to shift the tide of the game.
Prediction: Islanders win 4-3
Prop Bets
According to the popular sportsbooks, the Islanders are the underdog in this game. We like their money line value at +116. The over/under is set at 5.5. Due to both teams’ offences playing well and the inconsistency of Detroit’s back half, we like the over at -140. As far as an anytime goal scorer, for the Islanders, take Mathew Barzal at +180. He was highlighted as a player needing to step up with Horvat out, and we think he does that with a goal in this one. For the Red Wings, take Alex DeBrincat. As the team’s leading point producer and goal scorer, look for him to try to set the tone by putting the puck in the back of the net this game.
Main Photo: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
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