This week is shaping up to be a transformative one for the Blues. Amid mounting interest for forward cornerstone Robert Thomas, they’ve also been fielding more sparse interest in starting goaltender Jordan Binnington over the last several months. That appears to be coming to a head now as NHL Network’s Brian Lawton reports they’re “ready to move on” from Binnington and that it “feels like a move is a forgone [sic] conclusion.”
That’s a sharp change in direction from the feeling surrounding Binnington as of late, which was that they were listening to offers but weren’t close to seriously considering a move. He’d been left off most trade boards or ranked rather low on them as a result. The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta had him as a “bubble player” outside of his top-40 as of an update this morning. He was down at 24th on TSN’s most recent Trade Bait list and 43rd on Chris Johnston’s list for The Athletic yesterday.
In all likelihood, his and Thomas’ futures in St. Louis go hand in hand. It makes little sense for a team teetering between a moderate retool and an aggressive rebuild to move one player of either’s caliber and importance but not the other. As such, it’s natural that there would be an increased willingness to shop Binnington amid some intriguing offers for Thomas in the last few days from the Mammoth and Sabres, which has general manager Doug Armstrong seemingly leaning toward a move in that department as well.
Binnington’s trade value is hard to gauge. On one hand, he’s on a desirable contract for an established but inconsistent starter with a cap hit of $6MM that expires after next season. He’s also coming off exceptional performances as Team Canada’s starter on the international stage in back-to-back years. guiding Canada to a championship at last season’s 4 Nations Face-Off and putting up a .917 SV% in five games en route to a silver medal at last month’s Winter Olympics. He’s also a Cup champion and Calder Trophy finalist with a largely above-average track record in the playoffs.
That shouldn’t completely shroud the fact that Binnington has been the NHL’s worst starter this season, bar none. The Blues’ skater core has been below-average but not catastrophic defensively. Binnington’s .867 SV% and 8-18-6 record in 31 starts this year are more individually damning than representative of the team in front of him, especially when considering backup Joel Hofer‘s .899 SV% in a similar workload. The analytics back that up – Binnington’s -23.8 goals saved above expected are the worst in the league, per MoneyPuck.
The latter’s hot streak as of late and intriguing track record as a prospect only make moving on from Binnington a more natural position to take, especially if St. Louis has a chance to squeeze more return value out of him now with an acquiring team getting to take two swings at a playoff run with him before he reaches free agency. Hofer has another year left at $3.4MM before becoming an arbitration-eligible free agent. He’s now up to even in GSAx on the year after a rough start similar to Binnington’s and has a 14-11-3 record to show for it. That includes a .905 SV% in his last 15 outings, matching his career average to this point.